CW: If '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' & 'Beauty & The Beast' Have The Same Ratings, Which Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.45
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.52
Gossip Girl final season 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.67
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.97
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.95

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All three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) scored the same 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings last week. If that continues, which one of the three is going to get canceled?

Given similar ratings, I'm inclined to believe that 90210 gets a short farewell season. In deciding between a weak sophomore show (Hart Of Dixie) and a weak freshman show (Beauty & The Beast) I'm inclined to believe the CW picks the sophomore. However, comparable ratings in early December do not always lead to comparable ratings in the spring (ask the bitter Secret Circle fans!). Fans of all three shows will probably  remain worried until May.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • JJA

    Why all this talk about a half-season for 90210?

    In the case of OTH, that show was actually doing “well.” It probably would have gotten a full final season if they could get the cast to stay on for longer.

    In the case of GG, they had probably hoped for some “final season surge” in ratings, which did NOT really happen.

    So 90210 will get either a FULL season 6, or be canceled. A partial season makes no sense.

    Given it gets the same ratings as HOD, my money is on a FULL season renewal for 90210. HOD’s future is still unclear.

  • Anthony C.

    CW 2013-2014 SCHEDULE

    MONDAYS:

    8PM- The Carrie Diaries
    9PM- Amazon (New Series)

    TUESDAYS:

    8PM- Sleepy Hollow (New Series)
    9PM- Supernatural

    WEDNESDAYS:

    8PM- Arrow
    9PM- The Tomorrow People (New Series)

    THURSDAYS:

    8PM- The Vampire Diaries
    9PM- Embrace (New Series)

    FRIDAYS:

    8PM- Hart Of Dixie/America’s Next Top Model (Summer)
    9PM- 90210(Final Season 13 Episodes)/Nikita (Final Full Season)

    MIDSEASON:

    Electropolis (New Series)

  • thesnowleopard

    @Derek
    I think you miss the point of networks. They exist to make money. Supernatural makes money. If keeping it around for 20 seasons makes money, too, then that will happen.

  • Tom

    @ JulieD Shifting a poorly performing show like B&B to another supposedly better time slot will have no positive effect on its ratings. There’s simply no evidence to suggest that playing musical chairs with B&B will bring back lost viewers or uncover a trove of new ones. B&B plummeted immediately after its pilot aired and it’s been dropping ever since. This plainly signifies that viewers have given up on the show.

  • Dayv

    90210 will get renewed

    Other 2 shows will get canceled I think.

  • Brandy

    Jja, 90210 might get a full season if it keeps getting 0.5-0.6,but the reason most people say it’ll only get a short final season is cause that’s what GG,oth got and half of the time this season,90210s ratings have been as low as GG & Nikita’s,and majority feels 90210 should wrap soon,it’s not good anymore ect.Plus,,Cw will premiere probably four maybe more new shows next season and 90210 having a short season will allow this.Also,you said it yourself CW hoped for a “final season” surge in ratings with GG having 10 episodes,(which didnt happen).why would they expect it for 90210 having a full season?The last show on cw to get a full final season was SMV,which had better ratings than GG or 90210.I doubt if they didnt give GG a full season,what makes you think they will give 90210 one?Plus, why would it need a full final season to wrap up sl when like OTH,GG,it can be done less?90210 is also past the point of syndication numbers,so it won’t need a full season to get there & a short season will still give them episodes to make more money from syndication & Netflix.Also, a reason people say it’ll get only a short final season is because CW is apperantley getting away from teen dramas/young women demo next season.

  • Davis

    @ Brandy

    I bet NIKITA will get a full final season.

  • Brandy

    @Davis, I never said Nikita wouldn’t get a full fourth and final season, it will cause it has to to get to 88.I was talking about shows past syndication numbers lasting more than four season only getting short final season since SMV went off.

  • Peter Mazz

    The CW should have ended GG wit a 2 – hour episode on December 17, and a retrospective special on december 18. THAT WOULD BE COOOL!! :D

  • Peter Mazz

    With a*

  • Nick

    90210 cast salaries wouldn’t go up till season 7. Contract is up at season 6.
    If Pedowitz believes that 90210 could get renewed, it’s getting renewed. LOL. I love the show, but believe it or not it does bring in a lot of money from the Netflix deal and heavy product placement from Microsoft. Well, I’m assuming it does and it can’t be that much more expensive to produce than HOD…the only difference would be the location, BH being a much more expensive area, obviously.

    B&TB just needs to go, it’s performing at 90210′s level in it’s FIRST SEASON. That’s terrible. I’m pretty sure 90210 will get the short final season and HOD will be renewed, it should also become 90210′s lead in if The Carrie Diaries fail.

    Also, to all those saying 90210 has enough time to wrap things up…it really doesn’t. Writers are doing the season finale storyline right now, they would’ve needed to know if the CW was cancelling it in May way back in October or November for a good ending.

    90210 would perform even WORSE in a Friday timeslot. Especially at 8PM, which is the doomed time slot for any show on the CW. I love 90210, don’t get me wrong but I’m not about to give up my Friday night to watch a TV show. The audience of 90210 isn’t exactly that old either, sure some long-time fans from the original are watching but the core demo are kids in high school. A bunch of my friends watch and I know that based on the sample that I have, nobody would be watching 90210 on a Friday night at 8PM.

    If 90210 stabilizes at this .5-.7 it could very well get a full season, if not then I’m predicting a short final season.

  • Walter

    I think that 90210 will get a 13 episode final season and both Beauty and the Beast and Hart of Dixie will be canceled. Last season Piedowitz canceled more shows than expected and ordered more new shows than ever before on this network. I wouldn’t put it past him to cancel 2 or 3 shows this year and place an order for 3 or 4 for next season.

  • Nick

    So, if things were to go the way most are thinking then it’d be like this:

    RENEWED
    Hart of Dixie
    90210

    CANCELLED
    Beauty & the Beast

  • Bitter Ringer Fan

    we don’t need 2 more seasons of Flop of Dixie!!! the show has low ratings and it’s not even spring!

  • thesnowleopard

    @Tessa
    The longest running scripted shows that weren’t soaps appear to have been almost all procedurals. SPN has a serial aspect, but it’s also a procedural. Its reinvention does resemble that of Smallville, but it also resembles that of Law&Order, which had a revival around the same point where SPN is now. For that show, it seemed to involve a combination of impressive success in syndication (on A&E, first, then TNT) and a large overturn in cast.

    @robin
    Been wasting your time watching it the past three seasons, then, have you?

  • Percysowner

    A small silly part of me hopes that if Supernatural gets moved, it goes to Mondays. Not because it’s great counter programing or anything logical like that, but because it started on Tuesdays, moved to Thursdays, moved to Fridays, moved to Wednesdays and during its first season when the WB still had Sunday programming, they ran Supernatural beginnings on Sundays. It just seems like Supernatural deserves to have been shown on every day of the week.

  • Dan

    @Bill – To answer your question lets do some comparing

    90210 next season will be the Gossip Girl of this season. The CW favorite and franchise revival will get a final 10-13 episode season, maybe more eps if CW wants. My guess is renewed.

    Hart of Dixie is Nikita and here’s why. CW in the past has never cancelled a drama after 2 full seasons. They made a gamble on Nikita last May for a third season for syndication purposes and my bet is they will do the same for Hart of Dixie. My guess is renewed.

    Beauty and the Beast is clearly the Secret Circle of this season and while it will air all 22 episodes, after May its gone. CW can always try something new in the 9pm slot. Also CW typically renews 1 of their 3 fall dramas for a second season which will be Arrow, and even if Cult and Carrie Diaries both flop, they probably wouldnt keep BATB around if it keeps sinking. My guess is cancelled for BATB.

    I also think that 1 of Carrie Diaries and Cult will be renewed for a second season. (If Both got renewed Id be shocked but if both got cancelled Id just be surprised)

    Patterns mean a lot for some networks so you can easily figure out the status of a lot of bubble shows for CW.

  • Bitter TSC Fn

    They should have kept The Secret Circle. Forever bitter, yes! Say whatever you wanna say, but by the end of the first season the show was great and its fanbase came together and became a force to be reckoned with!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “90210 next season will be the Gossip Girl of this season. The CW favorite and franchise revival will get a final 10-13 episode season, maybe more eps if CW wants. My guess is renewed.

    Hart of Dixie is Nikita and here’s why. CW in the past has never cancelled a drama after 2 full seasons. They made a gamble on Nikita last May for a third season for syndication purposes and my bet is they will do the same for Hart of Dixie. My guess is renewed.

    Beauty and the Beast is clearly the Secret Circle of this season and while it will air all 22 episodes, after May its gone. CW can always try something new in the 9pm slot. Also CW typically renews 1 of their 3 fall dramas for a second season which will be Arrow, and even if Cult and Carrie Diaries both flop, they probably wouldnt keep BATB around if it keeps sinking. My guess is cancelled for BATB.

    I also think that 1 of Carrie Diaries and Cult will be renewed for a second season. (If Both got renewed Id be shocked but if both got cancelled Id just be surprised)

    Patterns mean a lot for some networks so you can easily figure out the status of a lot of bubble shows for CW.”

    Based on current course and speed, I think that’s reasonable for everything on the schedule now. As for Carrie Diaries & Cult, I make no predictions prior to seeing the ratings.

  • Brandy

    @ Walter yes last season more shows than cancelled on cw but that was after 2 seasons of no new hits.This year Arrows a hit and GG s ended,Emily Owens MD is already cancelled so that’s two spots already open.

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