CW: If '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' & 'Beauty & The Beast' Have The Same Ratings, Which Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.45
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.52
Gossip Girl final season 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.67
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.97
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.95

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All three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) scored the same 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings last week. If that continues, which one of the three is going to get canceled?

Given similar ratings, I'm inclined to believe that 90210 gets a short farewell season. In deciding between a weak sophomore show (Hart Of Dixie) and a weak freshman show (Beauty & The Beast) I'm inclined to believe the CW picks the sophomore. However, comparable ratings in early December do not always lead to comparable ratings in the spring (ask the bitter Secret Circle fans!). Fans of all three shows will probably  remain worried until May.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • SRD

    I really hope BATB gets renewed. I expected to hate it, but it keeps getting better and it entertains me.

  • Dan

    @Bill – I think that’s fair. Last season it was so hard to predict what would get renewed because so many people really thought Secret Circle would be renewed over low rated Nikita and Hart of Dixie (including myself). This year the predictions are easier.

    Also if numbers rise for Hart of Dixie and its considered likely to be renewed in the future, its good note to remember that for CW if there is ever a choice between a sophomore show with OK ratings and no lead in (HOD) vs. a show with a great lead in but sinking numbers (BATB), the sophomore show is a safe bet. We’ll see what happens in the next few months because things could certainly change.

  • Jarrod

    I bet 90210 gets a full sixth season IF the ratings surge up from The Carrie Diaries. However, TCD will flop, but somehow allow 90210 to remain stable thus locking it in for a sixth season THAT could possibly be 13 and then back-ordered. Similar to what OTH got in it’s 7th and 8th season.
    As for Nikita, it only needs 21 episodes next season to reach 88 (seeing as season 2 had 23 episodes). However, if The CW want to try and reach 100 episodes, my guess is 22 episodes next season and 12 episodes in the (possible) 5th (and final) season.
    In regards to HOD, chances are it’ll get renewed. It was the ONLY freshman show to make it out last year, so if the ratings continue to remain (how they’ve always been), it’ll most likely get it’s 3rd season and remain on Tuesday (or move back to Monday) seeing as it does alright on these days. Moving to Friday is another option however.

  • Dan

    Well now the question is, will CW air 90210’s final season at Midseason like One Tree Hill, Fall like Gossip girl or a full season off 22 episodes like Smallville.

    Let’s make a poll.

  • Jarrod

    @Dan: Here is hoping for a full season! If not, then 13 episodes pending a back-up order.

  • calob

    I think that The tomorrow people, embrace, amazon, sleep hollow and the hundred are the most promising looking pilots coming up, but I don’t see the hundred going anywhere out of its script phase.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Jarrod
    You’re not honestly greedy enough to think that the CW would take an extra financial hit beyond the bare syndication minimum (assuming they don’t create a new minimum for the show and cancel it after *this* season) on Nikita’s bargain basement ratings just to give you a fifth season, are you?

  • Jarrod

    @thesnowleopard: Why yes, yes I am greedy enough. However, I’m lucky enough to have been given Nikita for this season!

  • Davis

    @Dan

    I’m guessing 13 from Jan. to April.

  • Davis

    @ Bill
    @Dan (credit)

    Here’s next weeks Index title:::::

    If ‘90210’ was renewed for a final season, would it air in the fall like Gossip Girl, midseason like One Tree Hill, or a full season like Smallville? (POLL)

  • vikrammangat@yahoo.com

    HartOfDixie gets same treatment as Nikita.
    Almost guaranteed, even if its a bad show.

  • easy

    Beauty and the Beast has good chance of being renewed, will get the Nikita treatment and get more seasons (international attraction for Kreuk). The show has held up many more viewers than most new shows and compared to some old shows, and Demos has held steady and better than expected.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Jarrod
    Be careful. Greed sets up inflated expectations and eventual disappointment. This is why you have Fringe fans who are still angry it’s ending in season five when everyone else looks at that last season and a half as a gift.

    Don’t be one of those idiots. There’s no actual guarantee the CW will keep Nikita around even for 88 episodes with the ratings it’s getting. The chances of it getting anything beyond that are vanishingly small for exactly the same reason why its chances of getting to a fourth season are better than they should be.

  • Dan

    I would think 90210 would land somewhere on the fall schedule because there’s no ANTM this fall, for those who think it may be paired with Nikita on Fridays (Nikita will return this fall at 8pm likely) remember Gossip Girl stayed on Mondays, I don’t think CW would ship 90210 to Fridays for a final season, CW will probably give 90210 a nice farewell season on Mondays. My guess is somewhere on the fall 2013 schedule

    90210 Mondays at 9
    Arrow Wednesdays at 8
    Supernatural Wednesdays at 9
    Nikita Fridays at 8
    Hart of Dixie Tuesdays at 8
    Vampire Diaries Thursdays at 9

    This is me assuming CW will cancel BATB. That’s 6 shows on the fall sched and if Cult and or Carrie Diaries gets renewed then thats 2 or 3 slots available for drama shows. I expect CW to try to fill their entire schedule so if the midseason dramas are renewed, than maybe CW will ship 90210 to Fridays but I dont think so. I do think it will be on the fall schedule and likely for a full season only because CW probably wont have a show to timeshare 90210 with like they did with Gossip Girl and Carrie Diaries.

  • Anthony C.

    @easy

    No it doesn’t, No it won’t, LOL….international what!, No it hasn’t, & No they haven’t.

    @Calob

    I would add Electropolis and Reign to that list as well. Electropolis is a JJ Abrams/Ken Olin creation that I think the CW will at least order for midseason.

    For me the only three new pilot developments that I really care about are Sleepy Hollow, Embrace, & The Tomorrow People. I think they are gonna be the strongest going foward for the fall season and a perfect fit for the cw.

    Amazon is not doing anything for me personally but I see the CW going foward with it if the pilot is any good.

    The Hundred sounds really good but it seems like it couldn’t be executed on a CW budget.

  • Dan

    @Easy – The thing with BATB is that its a freshman show nd if it doesnt stand out over its 22 episode season, CW doesnt have a reason to give it a second. The only reason its doing as OK as it is, is because it has VD as a lead in but Secret Circle did better and got axed.

    Remember CW and CBS in recent history hasn’t cancelled a show after 2 full seasons. CBS’s last show to end after 2 full seasons was Close to Home. The general consensus is that so many shows get cancelled after 1 season, a lot get axed after 4 or more full seasons, and a good amount of shows get cancelled after starting out as a midseason replacement. but its very rare that a show gets cancelled after 2 full seasons. That’s why Nikita got renewed (Because CW put so much investment into 2 seasons, why not go for 2 more), and thats why Hart of Dixie will get a third season.

  • Faith

    I watched the first show of BB but couldn’t get into it.. As for arrow I refuse to watch it since the CW decided to cancel my favorite show the Secret Circle.. I never got into 90210 or Gossip Girl, Nikkita I haven’t seen since like season 2 and Hart of Dixie seems like such a lame show, just can’t put myself to watch it.. Basically I feel like there are other channels with better shows such as the walking dead, revolution, lost girl, American horror story… As long as the vampire diaries stay I’ll be happy, but I’ll be happier if the secret circle would come back, too bad it won’t.. Side note CW used to have good shows…

  • Faith

    Correction I meant I haven’t seen Nikkita since like season 1..

  • eridapo

    Season To Date Averages for A18-49 and A25-54

    CW A18-49 A25-54
    The L A Complex 0.2 0.25
    Nikita 0.32 0.35
    Emily Owens, M D 0.37 0.43
    Gossip Girl 0.4 0.36
    90210 0.49 0.46
    Hart of Dixie 0.56 0.6
    Beauty and the Beast 0.69 0.7
    Supernatural 0.89 0.9
    Arrow 1.2 1.4
    The Vampire Diaries 1.39 1.29

  • hunkey

    These so-called HOD fans always keeps on barging these TV survey blogs yet its rating keeps on bombing LMAO

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