CW: If '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' & 'Beauty & The Beast' Have The Same Ratings, Which Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.45
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.52
Gossip Girl final season 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.67
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.97
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.95

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All three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) scored the same 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings last week. If that continues, which one of the three is going to get canceled?

Given similar ratings, I'm inclined to believe that 90210 gets a short farewell season. In deciding between a weak sophomore show (Hart Of Dixie) and a weak freshman show (Beauty & The Beast) I'm inclined to believe the CW picks the sophomore. However, comparable ratings in early December do not always lead to comparable ratings in the spring (ask the bitter Secret Circle fans!). Fans of all three shows will probably  remain worried until May.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dan

    Beauty and the Beast will be canceled. While HoD and Nikita will both reach syndication. 90210 should also get canned , but The CW would probably give it the same treatment it gave to Gossip Girl, so it’s a bit safe. But, if Cult and Carrie Diaries succeed than 90210 could be in a lot of trouble.

  • Hades

    @Katy

    you might want to add HOD to your list too then

  • Glue

    90210 SHOULD BE renewed. I Think it Deserves it. If it stays at the 0.6 marks i THINK It could go to 7 seasons. Its because they moved it. the show was doing 0.6-0.8 Last year. I Think it should’ve stayed in its old slot and It would have been renewed for sure. Sad to see it as a toss-up.

    BaTB Has to go. Even WORSE ratings than TSC While TVD goes up. Bad sign! TSC Has gotten 0.8-1.0 Before christmas break. After is when shows go down. BaTB Got a 0.5. Imagine AFTER The break.

    HoD Could get renewed. Its such a cute show that can get a renewal :)

  • Alexis

    I suspect HoD will make the cut. Its ratings have to be viewed in the context of the overall CW situation, so they’re not *that* bad. It has to be cheap to produce – a dramedy with no special effects or action, and the cast, other than Bilson, aren’t big stars (so their salaries probably aren’t high). It’s a show that could make it to syndication. Plus, if they pair it with a compatible show that actually does well next season, its numbers could improve somewhat.

    With BatB having fallen as far as it did in such a short space of time, it’s almost certain to get cancelled. I can only see it surviving if A) it stabilizes, B) other shows drop, and C) Carrie Diaries and Cult bomb HARD. A long shot for sure.

    90210 is currently doing well by CW standards, so assuming it doesn’t drop dramatically come spring, I assume it’ll get the shortened final season treatment.

    Nikita, unless it drops to 0.2-0.1 territory, will get a final season for syndication.

    The interesting question to me: will The CW keep the Arrow/SPN pairing next season, or break it up so each show can launch a freshman? On the one hand, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it – Wednesday is their only strong night of the week. On the other hand, they may not have that luxury: they need more than 3 successful shows, and both Arrow and SPN can be good launching pads for new shows. I assume Arrow can stand on its own without SPN next season.

  • Charlie

    Hey can anyone tell me where to find out what series the cw are looking at for next year and when do we find out what ones get ordered for a pilot?

  • POI

    Supernatural, Arrow, and TVD will hopefully be renewed, while 90210 will get a final short season, Nikita a 21 episode final season, Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast canceled and Cult Renewed with HOD. This way they are finishing off all their low rated shows and getting better shows that might save the network and let it have more than 2 good days.

  • 90210

    CW doesn’t give a crap about ratings!! They are just playing with network money by putting out Shows and seeing which ones teens & Tweens tweet & Facebook about!!

  • 90210

    Also keep In mind there is a DVR ratings system and 90210 is frequently pretty high on that list. Probably he other CW shows too.

  • 90210

    Also keep in mind these show are noting known in USA. Other countries LOVE them!! there was a fan event in the UK just for Trevor Donovan! Who plays recurring role gay baby daddy Teddy on 90210

  • Spence

    The Vampire Diaries, Arrow and Supernatural are certain to be renewed. Nikita will probably be renewed because of syndication.
    Hart of Dixie should be renewed, 90210 should be canceled and Beauty and the Beast can fight it out with The Carrie Diaries and Cult.

  • AJ

    Here is my opinion:

    I think B&B will be cancelled because like everyone said, there’s no way it will survive if it can’t even pull in semi-good numbers after TVD (highest rated CW show). It’s a goner. Plus, the CW will most likely want to pair a new show in Fall 2013 with TVD, so B&B will HAVE to move, and we all know how that would turn out.

    Also, I honestly feel that THE VOICE on NBC having a Fall season seriously hurt the ratings for 90210. These 2 shows likely have similar audiences and with the Voice getting excellent ratings, it probably took away from 90210′s audience since most people probably DVR 90210 and watch the Voice live.. So, since 90210 is getting similar/sometimes better ratings than B&B in a tough timeslot, it shows that it is still a solid performer compared to B&B.

    My predictions: B&B canceled, 90210 moves to fridays in fall 2013 (final season or not) and HOD stays and is paired with a new drama in the fall. Plus, it is really hard to tell without knowing how The Carrie Diaries and Cult will do. If they both bomb, maybe all 3 (90210, B&B and HOD) stay (still unlikely), if both new shows are renewed, than 2 of those 3 (maybe all of them) will be canceled and if thats the case, 90210 is the most likely to be renewed, for a shortened final season.

  • 90210

    I used to like “Hart of Dixie”, but their trailers are so silly & ridicoulous that even the Soup made fun of them! Now the show is growing ridiculousl and he only thing good out of it is the fact Rachel’s Zoey character is finally a regular friends wih benefits with the main hot guy whose a player.

  • 90210

    They’ll get more ratings if they re name it “Fart of Dixie”

  • Tom
  • Alexis

    Here’s the CW schedule I would have next season -

    Monday:
    8pm – Hart of Dixie
    9pm – The Carrie Diaries if it’s renewed, or a new romantic comedy type show

    Tuesday:
    8pm – Cult if it’s renewed, or a new horror/fantasy show (e.g., Sleepy Hollow)
    9pm – Supernatural

    Wednesday:
    8pm – Arrow
    9pm – new action/superhero show (e.g., Amazon or The Tomorrow People)

    Thursday:
    8pm – new romance/fantasy show for young adults (e.g. Embrace)
    9pm – The Vampire Diaries

    Friday:
    8pm – Nikita
    9pm – 90210 (shortened final season), then Top Model in midseason

    The CW has repeatedly failed to launch shows in the Tuesday and Thursday 9pm slots. Therefore, I’d move Supernatural to Tuesday at 9pm and premiere a new similar show behind it – SPN can help it like it did Arrow. And I’d have TVD at 9pm on Thursday and with a freshman show leading into it rather than vice-versa, because the latter just hasn’t been working. Thursday at 9pm is too tough for freshman shows that skew female, with Glee and Grey’s Anatomy. 8pm has the killer Big Bang Theory/2.5 Men block, but I believe it skews male – it hasn’t hurt TVD, so maybe a new female-skewing show can do well there.

  • Charlie

    Thank u Tom

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I go for HoD and BATB both getting canceled. The Cult is likely to “die very badly” or at least as badly as BATB. Like GG, I suspect 90210 will get a final season.

    Nikita is a lock for syndication, fortunately.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    By the way, for those who think HoD will get the Nikita treatment – two more seasons to reach syndication – no, it won’t. Why? Because there’s no Maggie Q in the show, i.e., no one who is going to be a hit in Asia.

    The CW isn’t going to give EVERY show that reaches two seasons two more seasons unless the STUDIO making the show has confidence they can get a syndication deal that’s worth cutting the price of the show to next to nothing. That isn’t going to happen for every show. Nikita is an anomaly, not a trend.

  • Ale –> @Michaela

    @Michaela

    You are a Kristin hater, right? maybe from the Smallville days?

  • LAUREN-MARIE

    Arrow is the biggest CW export in the UK on cable tv Sky 1 with 1.7 million viewers – Week ending 2nd Dec

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