CW: If '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' & 'Beauty & The Beast' Have The Same Ratings, Which Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.45
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.52
Gossip Girl final season 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.67
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.97
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.95

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All three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) scored the same 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings last week. If that continues, which one of the three is going to get canceled?

Given similar ratings, I'm inclined to believe that 90210 gets a short farewell season. In deciding between a weak sophomore show (Hart Of Dixie) and a weak freshman show (Beauty & The Beast) I'm inclined to believe the CW picks the sophomore. However, comparable ratings in early December do not always lead to comparable ratings in the spring (ask the bitter Secret Circle fans!). Fans of all three shows will probably  remain worried until May.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Lainey

    At this point I can’t imagine HART OF DIXIE getting canceled. It’s such a cute show and as long as the ratings stay steady, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it around for seasons 4, 5 & 6 as well.

    I really hope CW has the balls to NOT give 90210 a short (and incredibly undeserving) final season. Call a spade a spade, have some pride and cancel it this spring.

    I think B&B will be a toss up until the very last minute, especially depending on how the new shows (Cult, Carrie Diaries) and spring pilots do.

  • jet

    why does 90210 deserve a final season, Gossip girl didn’t rate well for season 6 and was a waste of time. Plenty of time to call 90210 quits this season, they already have over 100 episodes, so let it die.

  • lisa

    Yes thursday 9pm should not be used for a new show next season, hasn’t worked for years, so move VD to 9pm or move SPN back to that spot.

  • Brandy

    @ Lainey you’re crazy if you think Beauty isn’t the first show cancelled come May, 0.5 for its last episode and most of the season still to fall like shows normally do in Jan or spring.Secondly, 90210 does deserve a final season as it was a hit in its first couple seasons and doing respectable by cw standards ratings til the season four finale and on,but it’s also risen to 0.5-0.6& over a million viewers four times this season showing it has life and Futhermore, it’s made CW money through iTunes,Netflix,DVD sales,international sales and Likley soon, a syndication deal .Plus it’s been a while, shows on for four or more seasons usually get a announced final season and plus,CW likes giving its vetran shows a final season for more episodes to sell to syndication & Netflix ect. And another DVD .Its CW s second original show to reach syndication and Likley get a syndication deal.Its also one of CWs flagship/signature series along with GG,VD.Theyre not going to give GG ,OTH, a final season and not 90210.

  • Luke

    Axe:
    90210
    Beauty and the Beast
    Nikita.

    They should cancel Beauty and the Beast by the end of January, and move Cult’s premiere to after The Vampire Diaries, then schedule Carrie Diaries re-runs in Cult’s old time slot. Gives both shows a real chance to find an audience.

  • Tom

    @ Ale What are you trolling about? Michaela isn’t the only poster to have commented on KK’s uninspired acting. KK should stick to girl-next-door roles because portraying a hard nosed cop is clearly beyond her limited skill set. And, by the way, I don’t hate her either. I understand that she has poor material to work with, but better scripting would just be wasted on her.

  • Dan

    Nikita is not getting cancelled. Syndication will get it a full 22 episode final season in Fridays at 8. And if Nikita is cancelled, what will air fridays. CW wont want to put a new show there and there’s no ANTM this fall.

    Vampire Diaries, Arrow, Supernatural, HOD, Nikita, and 90210 will be renewed.

    Beauty and the Beast, Emily Owens MD, and Gossip Girl are dead.

    Its too early to tell with Carrie Diaries and Cult but I’m sure 1 of the 2 will be renewed.

  • Chris

    I hope they keep Hart of Dixie!

    Get rid of 90210 already!

  • dlye

    90210 and HOD – full/short final season
    B&TB and Nikita- cancelled

  • Lauren

    I think Beauty and the Beast will be cancell. The ratings aren’t good and they have no excuses, it’s the first season and they have the best lead-in. They’ll cancell it the same way they did with Secret Circle.

  • Alex

    Nikita won’t be canceled, Beauty & The Beast will.

  • Alexis

    @Richard Steven Hack

    You’re right that Nikita is an anomaly, in terms of the huge contrast between its live ratings and its performance in other avenues (particularly outside the U.S.), and that’s why it’s still around. However, HoD being renewed still seems like a good bet. It’s a cheap show for them to produce, perhaps the cheapest, and its ratings seriously aren’t that bad by The CW’s standards. It just got a 0.6 – honestly, The CW would be thrilled if all of its shows except TVD, Arrow and SPN could settle at that number. That’s how far that network has fallen.

    In addition, we have to consider that HoD has never had a strong lead-in. It was paired with Gossip Girl, the worst lead-in on the network, last season and got better ratings than GG did. This season, HoD itself was a lead-in – for Emily Owens, which bombed so hard it didn’t get a back 9. Despite that, and having competition from the likes of The Voice, it’s remained fairly steady. Meanwhile, shows like TSC and BatB drop like a brick while having TVD as a lead-in.

    I’m not an HoD fan, but looking at the data, it seems pretty safe to me. I can only see it going if the CW decides to completely clean house and cancel everything but TVD, Arrow and SPN (and possibly Nikita for syndication). But they’ll never do that, given what a HUGE risk it’ll be – who’s to say a flurry of new shows (that you have to spend a lot of money on promoting, etc.) won’t bomb just as hard as the old shows?

  • Red Jane

    Beauty & Beast to be cancelled – it’s a no brainer, first season, good timeslot after Arrow and still doing poorly… Kill it now…

  • David Howell

    At the risk of sounding like a retentionista, I’d be astonished if B&B gets a second season. The way it’s falling now, I expect it to appear as “likely canceled” pretty fast once its initial TVD-boosted numbers drop out of the R/C Index completely in January.

    The only problem with renewing Hart of Dixie is that it would be a de facto 44 episode order. One needs only look at Nikita to work out the trouble with that…

  • Brandy

    @ DavidHowell, the difference between Hart and Nikita renewing them for two more seasons is :Nikita has kept falling while Hart is still steady at 0.5-0.6 & Hart is also cheap to produce,whereas Nikita was one of the most exspensive shows to produce til it’s budget cut late last season.
    @RedJane, you mean after VD right? Cause that’s Beauty’s timeslots.SPN is after Arrow

  • BG

    Beauty and the Beast will be cancelled.

  • Raz

    While I am a Secret Circle fan and I am disappointed with it’s cancellation I don’t really hate any of the new shows. I mean I think if they were going to think while ordering what would bring in good ratings they should have ordered a 13 episode order for Secret Circle. This way when a show is cancelled they have something else to put in it’s place to see if it can work on it’s own. It also ended on a great cliffhanger. I would have liked a 22 episode order.

    Personally while I don’t hate any of the shows I don’t see the point of Carrie Diaries. It’s Gossip girl but in a time before the modern which is troubling seeing as their try at that was a bomb. On top of that last season 2 other shows Pan-Am and Playboy Club were both cancelled. This show probably reaches an even smaller range of viewers which is bad if they were going to expand the audience range of the viewers. Emily Owens I did not watch at all and I do not hate it but just seeing the commercials I was already uninterested. It seems a bit too focused on one character. Beauty and the beast seems focused on two characters or so it seems(as I have not watched this either) this doesn’t work out too well as those 2 characters would have to be extremely interesting to carry the whole show. Arrow(another show I haven’t watched) seems to be the only show that could have succeeded. The show is based on a superhero and features action, which will bring in male viewers as well as a larger range of audience outside of their demo of women and teen girls who are just interested in good looks. Hart of Dixie is cheap to be produced definitely. I personally think I watched 1 or 2 episodes. I can’t say it’s a great show but it’s also cheap so I guess there is that.

  • Ale –> @Tom

    Not trolling just asking! Most of the time people who bash Kristin are haters from Smallville and she was the one who brought Kristin in the conversation, the rest only talked about the show.

  • Ivy

    TOP 10 CW SHOWS IN DEV THAT I WOULD WATCH:

    1. Tomorrow People
    2. The Hundred
    3. Oxygen
    4. Embrace
    5. Battle Royale
    6. The Selection
    7. Sick
    8. Blink
    9. Electropolis
    10. Reign

  • Cory

    My Top Ten

    1. Embrace
    2. Tomorrow People
    3. Meridian Hills
    4. Reign
    5. Electropolis (J.J. Abrams!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
    6. The Hundred
    7. The Selection
    8. Copeland Prep
    9. Abbadon’s Journal
    10. Amazon

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