CW: If '90210,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' & 'Beauty & The Beast' Have The Same Ratings, Which Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.45
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.52
Gossip Girl final season 0.53
90210 :| :| :| 0.67
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.97
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.69
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.95

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All three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) scored the same 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings last week. If that continues, which one of the three is going to get canceled?

Given similar ratings, I'm inclined to believe that 90210 gets a short farewell season. In deciding between a weak sophomore show (Hart Of Dixie) and a weak freshman show (Beauty & The Beast) I'm inclined to believe the CW picks the sophomore. However, comparable ratings in early December do not always lead to comparable ratings in the spring (ask the bitter Secret Circle fans!). Fans of all three shows will probably  remain worried until May.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • NE1

    I’d keep Heart of Dixie, I don’t watch every week but I keep meaning too. If it makes it to syndication I might watch in the mornings when I have more time.

  • JuJuroo

    i think beauty and the beast and 90210 will get cancelled and hart of dixie will get renewed. though renewing it for a third season might make them inclined to renew it for a fourth to get syndication…also: i suppose a short final season for 90210 is possible, but i really think cw’s long term goal is to get some new shows with better ratings going…and having a short final season for 90210 means one of their new shows will be pushed to mid season which doesn’t spell good news for that show’s success….sooo i’m betting 90210 gets cancelled entirely.

  • DKD

    “All three of the CW shows in the “mediocre middle” (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) scored the same 0.5 adults 18-49 ratings last week. If that continues, which one of the three is going to get canceled?”

    Well, many advertisers who buy the CW, do so because their target is Females 18-34. On that demo, “Hart of Dixie” is ahead of the other two shows. That’s what I think the decision-makers would consider.

  • Janie

    I like HOD and watch it religiously but even I have to say it is pretty weak. I mean none of the characters draw you in – all are bad at what they do. I know B&B seems to have generally weak writing though but seems to have better acting so not sure what is the right thing to do about who stays and who goes.

  • Red Jane

    @brandy – yes! I was wrong… B&B has the slot after TVD, even better than after Arrow…. but you’re right it is of course SPN after Arrow….

  • Alan

    Beauty and the Beast is cancelled. 90210 is older and it’s obvious that it will be renewed over the other two because of its age. B&B fell harder and quicker than The Secret Circle and I think it will hit 0.4′s when it comes back in January. Hart of Dixie has steady ratings and a little but loyal audience, and I think it will be renewed because of that.

  • bray

    I have not seen Kristen in smallville, only the first episode beauty and the beast, and she can not act at all, she is very boring and one-dimensional.

  • allfromthei

    Regarding Kristin’s acting and the general fate of BATB:

    I think she can be a good actress but some of the stuff she’s done so far hasnt given her that chance. You can say she hasnt proven it, but others in her projects have been terrible and it seems to be the tone of acting is usually because that’s the choice the showrunner/director has picked by the director .

    BATB tries to give her some stuff occasionally to work with but its also focused on having the beats of a CW show (soap acting, romantic one to one scenes that are now kinda dated for TV etc).
    If anyone saw her on Chuck in season 3, even with the little work she had to do in her 4 episode guest run she seemed much more natural on that show compared to Smallville and Beauty and the Beast and Street Fighther, and thats because of the tone of that show. She needs to definetly pick her projects carefully because she can and could have been a bigger TV actress than she is. But she does get exotic typecast and with that there’s a limitation to what she is asked to do. I would like to see her do sitcom. And look, we’ve seen Elisha Cuthbert and Olivia Munn surprise people recently on TV because of the nature of their projects, I think Kreuk can be the same.
    In fact even on BATB when there’s more light hearted moments, her acting seems more natural. I do think she should try a sitcom or something. We’ve seen worse actresses thrive this tv year alone, why cant she?

    As for the fate of BATB, if we’re gonna look at just raw numbers, its in trouble but then you could argue so are HOD and Nikita (that syndication argument is a bit skeptical and surprising). One thing you have to consider about BATB is that aside from the drop last week, its been in the 0.8-0.6 range for the past 2 months and certainly one has to wonder if the past 3 weeks were explinable (Twilight nightshowings, NFL pre-empts, Holiday season)

    I know people argue that if you’re gonna put it on Thursdays it should succeed and it if cant, its done. But I think there is now a history to prove that the TVD audience only cares about its own show and nothing else. BATB was also Pedowitz’s idea, he went to Cooper and Levin as the writers and said he wanted to do this show. So one has to wonder if he wants to give another chance on a different slot. I never really thought it should have been on Thursdays anyway, its seems to want to be more a procedural show and I felt like Nikita should have been paired with on a Tuesday or Friday.

    Also keep another thing in mind: They are many people who dont even get the CW anymore (I believe theres some ongoing issue with cable providers not having it for people who use that). So naturally, aside from Arrow we’ve seen a drop across the board for all CW shows. I wonder if they will keep that in mind when looking at the numbers. And we still have to consider digital views and by the time it debuts in Europe and all countries in the new year, they’ll probably have a clearer indication.

    What I can certainly says is its probably pointless to compare it to TSC’s performance last year, because CW has probably lost subscribers in certain markets anyway.

  • bry

    for me, Kristen is just always the same, no difference in the act, no matter which character is interpreted, boring and uninteresting, I really wanted to watch BATB, but after 3 episodes I’ve given up

  • Sarah

    Dont canccel Beauty and the beast! Cancel Hart of dixie

  • Fred

    There is nothing skeptical about it. Nikita should be a lock for renewal. Its like every show in a 3rd season that is at 66 ep after a 3rd season. BatB a 1st year show is at 0.5 and 0.6 now after CW’s biggest ratings hit. Imagine what it would fall to in a 3rd year on a friday. There Shouldn’t be much thought. Nikita is a lock for a renewal and to question it is beyond stupid if you look at the big picture here.

  • Fred

    Above is addressed to allfromthei by the way ;-)

  • shouichi

    Cancel all, except those three shows with over 2 million viewers, then finish the project of wonder woman and release it ASAP. IF CW wants to still alive, all of their shows should be about super heroes that based on comic books. It will work like Arrow. Or Bromance shows like Spn maybe?

    gezz.. the only reason why nikita were safe because…the CW Director Publicity loves it

  • Danimals

    We’ll get a better idea when these shows come back in January. For now I would go with BATB getting canceled cause of its significant fall since its premiere.

  • Peter Mazz

    I hope that Beauty and the beast stabilizes with a 0.6 – 0.8, if BATB stabilizes maybe it could be a lock for renewal :) Maybe… 3 0.8′s, 4 0.7′s and 5 0.6′s?? :)

  • nibehlung

    @Brandy: “the difference between Hart and Nikita renewing them for two more seasons is Nikita has kept falling while Hart is still steady at 0.5-0.6″

    NONSENSE. Last season Nikita was hovering about 0.5-0.6 as well and on Friday to boot.

  • Dan

    There are other factors to consider. Beauty and the Beast has the highest rated lead-in, meanwhile Hart of Dixie had to start off the season on its own and after Emily Owens being cancelled it agai has to stand on its own feet.
    Also HoD faces pretty heavy competition from NCIS and The Voice, much more so than BatB.

    The new president seems to be a fan of short seasons so I definitely think we will get one for 90210.

    I think Carrie Diaries will do better than expected, but I’m not sure about Cult yet.

  • Momo

    my prediction :

    90210 will get a final season like GG

    Hart of Dixie will be renewed for sure

    B&B Cancelled like secret circle

    and CW will order 2 new shows as always !

  • Brandy

    Nibehlung, yes until the last 7 episodes where it fell to 0.4s and then it stsrted season three with 0.3 & under a million viewrrs then 3.2 rated 0.2& under a million viewers so it fell again.Also Nikita ended season one at 0.7 ,started season two at 0.6 so fell there too where Hart ended season one at 0.6& premiered season two at 0.7,up.

  • Brandy

    @niblehlung, also season Nikita premiered to 1.4 , ended at 0.7& went under 2 million viewers four times and hasnt seen those numbers again since whereas Hart premiered at 0.8& its series low is 0.5 , while Nikitas is 0.2.So yes it has kept falling and falling while Hart is at 0.5_0.6 with three 0.7_0.9.s

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