FOX: 'The Cleveland Show' Is A Toss Up To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) final season 0.49
The Mob Doctor canceled 0.53
Ben And Kate :oops: 0.72
Raising Hope :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.86
The Cleveland Show :| :| :| 0.96
Bones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Bob's Burgers renewed 1.08
American Dad already renewed 1.15
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Family Guy already renewed 1.45
The Simpsons already renewed 1.65

-
Often my partner in crime writes about something before I get around to it, and that's what happened with The Cleveland Show. It's the only one of Fox's animated shows without an order for episodes beyond this season, and with the extra lead time needed for animated production it may have already passed the date needed to get episodes for next season into production. At the end of this season it will already have 88 episodes, so the syndication gods are not compelled to step in to save it. For that reason it's now a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

Raising Hope is predicted as "certain to be renewed" even with its somewhat weak early ratings. While the syndication gods ruling Fox aren't quite as predictable as those ruling CBS, it would take nothing short of a cataclysm to prevent the show from getting a fourth season. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • ToXiX

    FOX FALL 2013

    MONDAYS

    8 BONES
    9 THE FOLLOWING

    TUESDAYS

    8 GLEE
    9 NEW GIRL
    930 RAISING HOPE

    WEDNESDAYS

    8 THE X FACTOR

    THURSDAYS

    8 THE X FACTOR
    9 NEW DRAMA

    FRIDAYS

    8 KITCHEN NIGHTMARES?
    9 TOUCH

  • ToXiX

    SUNDAYS

    630 THE OT
    7 THE SIMPSONS
    730 BOBS BURGERS
    8 FAMILY GUY
    830 AMERICAN DAD

  • Dan

    @Bill – My theory on The Cleveland Show is that while it has enough episodes to make a full season 25 total episodes for this season, (including 22 produced for season 4 and 3 hold over episodes from production season 3) If FOX wants to give the show a fifth season of 13 episodes to get over 100, Its always possible that FOX could only air 18-20 episodes this season. Then hold 7 or 5 episodes for next season (depending on how many air this season) so FOX could combine the leftover eps with the new 13 eps and have a “full season” for 2013-2014. The new “production 5th season” episodes probably wouldnt have to air until January 2014.

    This s what happened to both Family Guy and Futurama during their original final seasons on FOX in 2001-2002 and 2002-2003. FOX could easily air all 25 remaining episodes this season and cancel the show but the extra episodes buys them more time.

  • Nick

    @ToXiX

    Are you saying that Fox should not have ANY new comedies for 2013-2014? Wow.

  • Dan

    FOX will have 1 new comedy for Fall 2013. My guess is that after Goodwin Games flops, FOX will renew Mindy Project to save face (and say we didnt cancel all our new comedies)

    Tuesdays Fall 2013
    8:00 Raising Hope
    8:30 Mindy Project
    9:00 New Girl
    9:30 NEW COMEDY

  • kiber9

    @Laura @The End As I recall, Kevin Reilley said at the May Upfronts that the licensing agreement for Bones/FOX had been agreed upon for seasons 8 and 9, so unless the ratings tank, there will be a season 9.

  • tjw

    @kiber9,

    But we don’t know what the ratings level contingency for season 9 is. If the season 9 option requires Bones to have a 2.4 average (the rating the show pulled for the last episode before its renewal last year), then it might not reach that goal, in which case, it’s in the same position as every other show on the network. Without knowing the details of that licensing agreement, it’s foolish to assume that a ninth season is a done deal.

    That said, Bones is still certain to be renewed.

  • vikrammangat@yahoo.com

    Don’t the have Flintstones coming, or is that delayed again?

  • Dan

    There WILL be a season 9 of Bones, FOX has no other dramas. Even if ratings tank, which the wont, FOX needs a launch pad for a new drama. Plus if the cancel Bones they will only have Glee as technically a drama since Fringe is ending and Touch is likely done after its 13 episode season.

  • Dan

    @vikrammangat@yahoo.com – Seth Macfarlane announced earlier this year that The Flintstones reboot will be delayed indefinitely meaning that it probably wont happen anytime soon. He stated that he was too busy. But when you’re working on 3 animated series (Family Guy, American Dad, The Cleveland Show) plus a movie for a while (Ted) I wouldnt blame him for being too busy.

    @Bill – I would think that January/February would be the deadline for FOX to order more Cleveland Show episodes. I’m not sure but that deadline extends only because they can always hold around 5 episodes over for next fall from this season giving them time a January 2014 date for new eps to be ready. Since episodes typically take 6-9 months to get produced for animated shows. The fact that FOX has extra eps gives them more time for a decision.

  • ToXiX

    @Nick
    They would be better off if they didn’t.

  • Oliver

    If Fox reduce their live-action comedy block to an hour then they could launch something new at mid-season on the half-hour and air Raising Hope without repeats. My guess is it depends on how much Fox like their comedy pilots.

    I’d like to see Fox move Glee to Tuesday 8pm in January, once The Voice departs, and put comedies in the post-Idol slot. There seems to be more upside potential there than giving Glee the post-Idol timeslot, and it may benefit both comedy hours.

  • eridapo

    Season To Date Averages for A18-49 and A25-54

    FOX A18-49 A25-54
    Fringe 0.95 1.15
    The Mob Doctor 1.03 1.19
    Ben and Kate 1.4 1.5
    Raising Hope 1.66 1.91
    The Mindy Project 1.68 1.77
    Cleveland Show 1.86 1.58
    Bob’s Burgers 2.1 2.05
    Bones 2.1 2.46
    American Dad 2.28 1.98
    Glee 2.38 2.33
    New Girl 2.46 2.49
    Family Guy 2.72 2.53
    The Simpsons 3.11 3.19

  • r0ckmypants

    @Nick – No, by YOUR logic the R/C Index should already be predicting shows like The Following and The Goodwin Games… which they are NOT because they haven’t premiered yet.

    MY logic is perfectly sound.

  • Cal Igula

    It is terrible….put it out of its and my misery!!!

  • Dan

    FOX is keeping the 2 hour Tuesday block, that’s something that they will work on even if its a bit shaky initially. That’s why both Ben & Kate and Mindy Project got full seasons despite the fact that they are both flops.

  • Herb Finn

    If THE CLEVELAND SHOW gets cancled, I hope they don’t put him back on FAMILY GUY – Nothing like characters returning to the original series after a spin-off ends/fails.

  • Laura

    Yes, here is what Kevin Reilly said:

    “We’re negotiating with David and I don’t expect [him being a free agent] to be the case,” Reilly said to reporters after his Television Critics Association panel. “BONES has really been one of the mainstays of our schedule and we have picked it up for two more years. And I certainly would expect David to be a part of it.”
    Wait, two years? After all, the renewal for season eight was supposedly only for that season. But it turns out it’s not quite that simple.
    According to a Fox rep, “FOX struck a license deal for BONES for 2 years, but with an option on the second year.” So, if BONES does well and the network wants it to continue on, Fox can pick it up simply, versus having to negotiate with the studio all over again. Not quite a slam-dunk renewal, but certainly a step in the right direction.

    http://www.givememyremote.com/remote/2012/07/23/kevin-reilly-on-the-future-of-bones-will-it-go-beyond-season-8/

  • John

    Face it – The Cleveland Show will be renewed because if they cancel it they’ll be called racist.

  • Dan

    TVbythenumbers obviously goes by the numbers. My predictions before the shows premiere is that The Following could go either way but unless it flops the way Mob Doctor did, FOX will keep it out of desperation. Goodwin Games is like Traffic Light or Sons of Tucson. Its a dead midseason show, and the fact that the episode order was cut from 13 to 7 just means that all 7 episodes will air but the show will probably do worse than Ben & Kate. I expect FOX to keep the tuesday comedy block including Raising Hope, New Girl and Mindy Project(to save face) and premiere a new comedy next fall. Fox renewed 2/4 of the new comedies in 2010-2011, and 1/2 of the comedies in 2011-2012. I think this year it will be 1/3.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures