NBC: 'The New Normal' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.68
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.70
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.71
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.77
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.91
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.93
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 0.95
Chicago Fire :) :) :) :) 0.96
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.00
The Office final season 1.16
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.71

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The New Normal has become one of the anti-fan focal points of the current season among our commenters. Certainly some is driven by the content of the show, and some is driven by the Retentionista tendencies of many of our commenters.

The content of the show is irrelevant to the Cancellation Bear, and he views the retentionistas as the equivalent of TV prediction flat earthers.

Through 11 weeks, The New Normal ratings average was almost exactly that of all NBC scripted shows, and it has not fallen more than one tenth below the NBC scripted show average for any given week. As much as the retentionistas will rage, networks do not cancel new shows with average ratings.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Cindy

    I miss the bear pictures. What happened to them?

  • Tom

    I dont agree with you on The New Normal.

    Sure it’s hitting their average but being in Season 1 I just can’t see it being renewed. I can see Whitney being renewed over it simply because it will be its third season. Heck, can even see Community getting a 5th season over it.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I miss the bear pictures. What happened to them?”

    Whoops! Completely forgot! Fixing that now!

  • Jared

    The New Normal is the only series I watch on NBC. Happy to see you think it will be renewed.

  • michelle

    @Tom Based on current numbers, renewal of The New Normal seems likely. However, a lot might depend on what happens when The Voice isn’t leading off the night. If its ratings stay the same or just drop a little to around 1.5, it’s probably safe. But if it falls to low 1s, might be a different story. I imagine NBC will want to use the post-Voice slot to launch new shows next season and would move Go On/TNN to a new night. So if TNN can’t hold on its own and/or drops below Parks & Rec in the ratings, there’s a chance it won’t come back. Though even it that scenario, I can see shows like TNN, Parks, etc. being renewed with shortened episode orders as NBC did for this season. Who knows, really? Things should be interesting when schedules are announced in May.

  • taylor

    It’ll be interesting to see what happens to Go On and New Normal without The Voice lead-in.

  • Nick

    Terrible show. Guessing NBC doesn’t feel it can do better with what they have coming up.

  • Mr Mumble

    Bill Gorman with classical strawman arguments.

    “The New Normal” will not be shown 30 minutes after “The Voice” in mid-season and that will impact its ratings. This isn’t a ‘retentionista’ argument because “The New Normal” will not have anything to retain.

    Forward-thinkers, who aren’t blinkered by past ratings that matter not a jot for future ratings, take into account that a decision on renewal is likely to be made next March-May. The episodes of “The New Normal” airing in mid-season are far more exposed and have to stand on their own merits.

    “The New Normal” is really a bubble show leaning towards cancellation. NBC execs are regretting renewing “Whitney” and “The New Normal” – even taking into account the expected yearly declines – is on a worse trajectory.

  • daany94

    Glad the new normal is doing well. Its a quirky sweet show. Hope it manages to stay in the 1.6-1.8 range

  • Oliver

    We’ll see how TNN performs once The Voice, the show that is inflating its lead-in, departs. My guess is that it drops by three tenths or so, putting it squarely in danger territory.

    I am a seller on the show. Either it’s cancelled this season or scrapes a renewal, gets moved into a worse timeslot and is cancelled next season.

  • Ram510

    Last week TNN got a 1.7 and Guys With Kids a 1.4, that only three tenths off. Is it possible that Guys With Kids should move up to toss up range?

  • Just Desserts

    The New Normal is so gay its not even funny!!!!!! :P :P :P :P

  • gerry

    i like new normal. not the best show on tv, but right now i’m happy enough with it and glad its looking good on the index. that being said, i agree that things could change if there’s no voice lead in for it. but i hope not.

  • MichaelS

    As long as they renew Parks and Rec, Community, and Revolution I’m ok.

  • Max Vrany

    @all, the bear doesn’t guess future ratings*. The bear only makes predictions based on the ratings he has.

    *usually, but never for prediction purposes.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Forward-thinkers, who aren’t blinkered by past ratings that matter not a jot for future ratings, take into account that a decision on renewal is likely to be made next March-May. The episodes of “The New Normal” airing in mid-season are far more exposed and have to stand on their own merits.”

    Commenters are free to predict future ratings. As noted, I don’t.

    When those future ratings arrive, my predictions can and do change.

    Of course the decisions for the shows still on the air with full seasons will be made late in the season. Was that a news flash you were bestowing upon us?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “*usually, but never for prediction purposes.”

    The bear is trying to not predict future ratings at all, since he’s so demonstrably bad at it!

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Heh, it seems like NBC is changing Up All Night to multicam so they can say “all our multicam shows are the only ones failing”.

    Renew everything ahead of (and including) Parks & Rec, and cancel the rest.

  • rob60990

    I hope The New Normal is renewed to piss off anti-gay groups.

  • Ricky

    Polar bear! :D

    Oh, how I wish New Normal had flopped. At least it’s doing better than Whiney, which is always a good thing.

    The Elimination Game: now with All-Stars! http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/12/09/play-the-elimination-game-page-2/160888/comment-page-4/#comments

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