NBC: 'The New Normal' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

December 11th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-December 9, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
30 Rock final season 0.68
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.70
Up All Night :cry: :cry: 0.71
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.77
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.91
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.93
Law & Order: SVU :) :) :) :) 0.95
Chicago Fire :) :) :) :) 0.96
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
The New Normal :) :) :) :) 1.00
The Office final season 1.16
Go On :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.71

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The New Normal has become one of the anti-fan focal points of the current season among our commenters. Certainly some is driven by the content of the show, and some is driven by the Retentionista tendencies of many of our commenters.

The content of the show is irrelevant to the Cancellation Bear, and he views the retentionistas as the equivalent of TV prediction flat earthers.

Through 11 weeks, The New Normal ratings average was almost exactly that of all NBC scripted shows, and it has not fallen more than one tenth below the NBC scripted show average for any given week. As much as the retentionistas will rage, networks do not cancel new shows with average ratings.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ellen

    NBC has a great Tuesday lineup with The Voice, Go On, New Normal and Parenthood. NBC is consistently #1 or #2 on Tuesday. If the season ended today, I think the network would keep this lineup in tact — it would be stupid to sacrifice the stability these shows provide.

  • Oliver

    @Nick

    I doubt TNN will flop as bad as you people say without The Voice. It’s Go On that I’m worried about.

    Goon has a much, much higher base to fall from. I expect it to fall 0.5+ and TNN to fall by ~0.3.

    There’s also no point in NBC announcing a final season if they do renew Community. Final seasons are for shows renewed to limp into syndication, actors contracts being up and/or the show being too expensive. I don’t think Community will fall into all three, and it’s worth NBC hedging their bets in case syndication boosts the ratings.

    @Raykov

    TNN was never in danger IMO, cause it’s NBC’s second highest rated comedy (not counting The Office, cause it ain’t coming back)

    At this point in 2010-11, Outsourced was NBC’s second highest rated comedy. Last year Whitney and Up All Night were 2nd and 3rd, and both scraped into renewal.

  • The End

    @CenterGravity

    Revolution will be renewed, no problems there. 2013 should be a good year for Scifi, from the announced shows, you have this, Defiance, and Falling Skies(Season 3 has been completely filmed now pretty much).

  • Jennifer

    As long as Parenthood gets renewed I’m happy :) It’s one of the best shows ever. Seriously people, you should check it. I watch a lot of crappy TV shows (gossip girl, for example) but here, it’s really goooood but sadly underrated like Friday Night Lights in the old days :(

  • Jennifer

    What really sucks is that NBC didn’t give a full season to Parenthood! It’s a shame. Hopefully next year they’ll get a full one next year!!

  • Jennifer

    oops “next year… next year” I’m writing too quickly :P

  • The End

    @Jennifer

    Parenthood will get renewed. There’s more chance of Nibiru, the imaginary planet that some people think will kill us all hitting us than there is of this show getting canceled.

  • Dan

    Of course The New Normal will be renewed. The only comedies likely returning next season is Go On, New Normal and Parks and Rec. The rest aré either dead or in their final seasons.

  • The End

    @Dan

    I wouldn’t call Parenthood, a comedy drama show dead.

  • Dan

    And NBC is the one network that doesnt care if a show has OK.retention if the ratings are good the show will be renewed. Revolution will probably never air without The Voice as a lead in so even if its retention isnt good when it returns in march it will still be given a second year bc the numbers will still be good enough by NBC standards

  • THE OLD MAN

    Whitney/UAN/GWK at this point are the only ones that have to worry

  • Dan

    @The End – I dont consider Parenthood a “comedy” since its hour long its technically a drama. Just like Ugly Betty and Glee are technically dramas despite the fact that they have a lot of comedy aspects. After beating Vegas despite Vegas’s mammoth NCIS LA lead in (when Parenthood had a lower by comparison New Normal lead in) You can bet NBC is keeping Parenthood around. Eventually Parenthood will reach syndication but not for a while if NBC keeps ordering 15 episode seasons.

    Anyway lets go down the list of comedies

    The Office – Final Season
    30 Rock – Final Season
    Whitney – Dead by May
    Guys With Kids – Dead by May
    Go On – Will be renewed 100%
    Up All Night – Dead by May (Even after retooling)
    1600 Penn – Too Early to Tell
    Parks and Recreation – Will be salvaged (renewed)
    Community – Probably cancelled after the next 13 eps air

    If most of these shows are done by May, even if The New Normal does OK, NBC will still save it because they basically have nothing else. I can see them moving NN and Go ON to Thursdays next season.

    8:00 Parks and Recreation
    8:30 The New Normal
    9:00 Go On
    9:30 New Comedy

  • Davis

    PREDICTION:
    (dont even know where to start)

    Monday:
    The Voice
    Believe (new drama)

    Tuesday
    The Voice Results
    Go On
    Slammed (new comedy)
    Parenthood

    Wednesday
    Law & Order:SVU (final)
    After Hours (new drama)
    Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    The New Normal
    The High Life (new comedy)
    1600 Penn
    Parks and Rec
    Revolution

    Friday
    Rock Center with Brian Williams
    Grimm
    Dateline NBC

    Midseason:
    a bunch of returning/new shows

  • Dan

    NBC’s 2013 fall schedule is impossible to predict but I can say a few things

    -The Voice will be on it Mondays and Tuesdays
    -Dramas SVU, Grimm, and Parenthood will certainly be on it
    -If Smash gets renewed for a third year, it will be for midseason again
    -Revolution has a very good chance of returning
    -If Chicago Fire holds up this season, NBC will probably bring it back and therefore it will be on the schedule.
    -As of now Go On, The New Normal and Parks and Recreation are the only current comedies that will certainly be on it. Its too early to tell the fates of Community, 1600 Penn and Save Me.
    -Whitney, Up All Night, and Guys With Kids definitely wont return. Rock Center is probably dead, though if NBC wants to keep it as a Friday night show, they probably will.

    For a network with extremely low standards, having shows that perform above their low average from the last few years (The New Normal and Chicago Fire) makes those shows have good shots to return as building blocks for NBC to make their new schedule.

  • Davis

    @ Dan

    ^^Did you see my schedule up above?
    It almost matches exactly what you just said! :)

  • POIFanatic

    As long as Revolution and Go On return, I’m good. Revolution keeps winning its timeslot, is the highest rated new show and is constantly in the Top 4 most DVR’d show and comes close to The Voice ratings if its considered (I know dvr doesn’t matter, but it shows that Revolution has the potential to break out next season)

  • jimbo

    Please don’t destroy GO ON by putting it on Thursday. NBC should abandon a policy of Thursday comedy line. In stead, it should put shows like Chicago fire or Revolution,,,or make another big project!!
    And GO ON and Guys with Kids have more similar viewers than Goon,Tnn.

    GO on , GWK , Parenthood. The best line on Tuesday.

  • Mark

    I don’t think The New Normal will drop at all. If anything, it will increase its ratings after winning a couple awards this holiday season. I can easily see the series winning best comedy on People’s Choice and Rannells and Barkin scoring a Globe nomination. In fact, many say that Ellen Barkin is a safe bet to win the Globe. Even the series itself. After all, the critics love Will & Grace, and TNN could easily attract them too. We’ll see. I’ll keep my fingers crossed!

  • Jack

    By the time The New Normal starts, The Voice’s audience has left the building. Plus I don’t know anyone watching Go On and TNN. It’s either one or the other. It’s a different kind of humor. TNN seems to have quite a steady flock. So I’d say it’s not lead-in dependent. In a sense, I think the pro-renewal arguments are bigger and better: 1) NBC has changed. With all the premieres they had this year, some will “have to” survive, and TNN is holding great live and DVR. 2) It’s Ryan Murphy. Guy is a genius and if he has to re-think the episodes to draw a bigger audience, he will. 3) Let’s not forget ABC and FOX pretended this show too, so it has potential. 4) It’s Ryan Murphy, again. There’s a lot going on involving AHS and Glee deals, and execs want him happy. 5) It’s the only show entirely focussed on a gay couple and NBC is a liberal house. Just for the fun of it (and the anger of anti-gay groups), they will keep it on air.

  • eridapo

    Season To Date Averages for A18-49 and A25-54

    NBC A18-49 A25-54
    Animal Practice 1.22 1.56
    30 Rock 1.23 1.43
    Whitney 1.27 1.6
    Up All Night 1.29 1.52
    Guys with Kids 1.39 1.69
    Parks and Recreation 1.64 1.74
    Grimm 1.68 2.19
    Law & Order: SVU 1.71 2.16
    Chicago Fire 1.74 2.25
    The New Normal 1.76 2.21
    Parenthood 1.81 2.2
    The Office 2.1 2.28
    Go On 2.38 2.89
    Revolution 2.98 3.56

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