Bubble Watch: Misinterpreted Mayan Writings Don't Kill TV Shows, Business Models Do
Image credit: “HodariNundu” you can see a larger version here.
This will be the last Bubble Watch until after the holidays, or for the doomsday crowd, the last bubble watch ever! It’s as easy to predict that Don’t Trust the B—- in Apt. 23 will live on past December 21 as it is to predict many people will disagree with some of the designations below – which, by the way, have not changed since last week. Yep, I’m mailing it in this week, blame a weakness for spiked egg nog…
Bears don’t kill TV shows either though the image of a bear chasing a TV show around is certainly more entertaining (at least to me!) than a table with a list of shows and how things are shaping up.
Generally speaking, horrible ratings *do* kill shows, but because it’s the relative ratings for a network that matter, it’s more precise to go with “business models.” CBS cancels shows with ratings that are bad for CBS that would be fantastic for other networks. Among the reasons that other networks simply don’t pick up shows in CBS’s scrap heap is those networks fully realize the shows wouldn’t perform nearly as well in the ratings on their networks as they performed on CBS.
I had a healthy respect for business models even before we launched TV by the Numbers, but I have an even healthier respect now. When we launched the site I figured we’d be focusing much more on how the networks’ existing business models were getting crushed by changes (DVR, On Demand, Netflix, etc.). There’s certainly some interest in that, but it is teeny tiny compared to interest in whether shows will be cancelled or renewed.
There’s lots of stuff we don’t do that some people would certainly be very interested in. Some of those things we’re even very interested in ourselves, but sadly, there’s not enough interest in them to justify the cost of production. Even here at TV by the Numbers where the financial stakes are much lower, we have our versions of “666 Park Avenue” and “Last Resort” that we scrap or never get around to doing to begin with. Those decisions don’t always please us or all of our readers, but they make sense for our business model.
Either way, long after December 21, 2012 TV shows — fan favorites among them — will be canceled.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Certain Cancellation|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Happy Endings||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Nashville||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Good Wife||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Mentalist||CBS||On The Bubble|
|90210||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Mindy Project||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|The New Normal||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|The Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Go On||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Canceled/Final Season|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|