Bubble Watch: Misinterpreted Mayan Writings Don't Kill TV Shows, Business Models Do

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

December 16th, 2012

Image credit: "HodariNundu" you can see a larger version here.

This will be the last Bubble Watch until after the holidays, or for the doomsday crowd, the last bubble watch ever! It's as easy to predict that Don't Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 will live on past December 21 as it is to predict many people will disagree with some of the designations below - which, by the way, have not changed since last week. Yep, I'm mailing it in this week, blame a weakness for spiked egg nog...

Bears don't kill TV shows either though  the image of a bear chasing a TV show around is certainly more entertaining  (at least to me!) than a table with a list of shows and how things are shaping up.

Generally speaking, horrible ratings *do* kill shows, but because it's the relative ratings for a network that matter, it's more precise to go with "business models." CBS cancels shows with ratings that are bad for CBS that would be fantastic for other networks. Among the reasons that other networks simply don't pick up shows in CBS's scrap heap is those networks fully realize the shows wouldn't perform nearly as well in the ratings on their networks as they performed on CBS.

I had a healthy respect for business models even before we launched TV by the Numbers, but I have an even healthier respect now. When we launched the site I figured we'd be focusing much more on how the networks' existing business models were getting crushed by changes (DVR, On Demand, Netflix, etc.). There's certainly some interest in that, but it is teeny tiny compared to interest in whether shows will be cancelled or renewed.

There's lots of stuff we don't do that some people would certainly be very interested in. Some of those things we're even very interested in ourselves, but sadly, there's not enough interest in them to justify the cost of production. Even here at TV by the Numbers where the financial stakes are much lower, we have our versions of "666 Park Avenue" and "Last Resort"  that we scrap or never get around to doing to begin with. Those decisions don't always please us or all of our readers, but they make sense for our business model.

Either way, long after December 21, 2012 TV shows -- fan favorites among them -- will be canceled.

Happy holidays!

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

--

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
Whitney NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Nashville ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
CSI: NY CBS On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Scandal ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
How I Met Your Mother CBS Likely Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Likely Renewal
Bones Fox Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Revenge ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
  • Petar Ivanov

    @reidjr

    Yep, i heard that. I guess networks are now more and more like cable now. Even CBS. GOOD NEWS for tv by the numbers i guess. And viewers off course. CBS also is going with a lot of shows in summer too. ABC too.

    For Now summer shows are:

    NBC – Hannibal and save me may be Dracula too.
    CBS – Unf, Friend me and one more new drama, may be Partners too
    ABC – new drama and new comedy
    FOX are mess.

  • Nick

    @omabin

    ABC’s brand has changed since Lost premiered.

  • rob60990

    If networks only programmed cop shows, viewers would flee the networks so fast heads would spin.

  • reidjr

    Peter
    Have you heard what new drama and comedy Abc is looking at for the summer?

  • Austin Lauran

    I’m just paraphrasing:

    For example, would it be possible for the ABC execs to interfere with the production of Modern Family by forcing the writers & producers to make some changes that they want or else the show gets cancelled if they don’t do what they tell them to do?

  • Nick

    @reidjr

    Have you heard what new drama and comedy Abc is looking at for the summer?

    The new comedy is The Family Tools, which is set to premiere Wed May 1 at 8:30 ET, and will run for 10 episodes. The new drama is Mistresses, which does not have an official premiere date yet, but is expected to air Mondays @ 10 behind the Bachelorette.

    @Austin Lauran

    For example, would it be possible for the ABC execs to interfere with the production of Modern Family by forcing the writers & producers to make some changes that they want or else the show gets cancelled if they don’t do what they tell them to do?

    Yes, that is possible. We don’t know exactly, but that’s probably what happened with Body of Proof and Last Man Standing this past May.

  • Honey Badger

    NBC has only 2 highly rated shows, NBC Sunday night NFL Football and The Voice, I think all others except Revolution and Go On would be replaced on any other network and should be on the bubble.

    And “NBC Ties For 7th Place Among Broadcast & Cable Networks With Adults 18-49 On Thursday”

    If you ran NBC what would you do Now?

    Below are some suggetions.
    Honey Badger
    Posted December 16, 2012 at 1:03 PM
    Weekend Update: Jacob the Bar Mitzvah Boy
    one of the best Saturday Night Live skits ever
    Shalom and Happy Holidays to everyone !

    Honey Badger
    Posted December 16, 2012 at 1:20 PM
    Austin Lauran
    Posted December 16, 2012 at 1:06 PM
    If Saturday Night Live does well late on Saturday Night & outrates all of NBC’s Thursday Night show, could it be moved to primetime?
    @ Austin Lauran I like your thinking
    Oliver
    Posted December 16, 2012 at 3:38 PM
    @Austin Lauran
    SNL being repeated in primetime has been suggested for years but has, as far as I know, never happened. I wouldn’t be surprised if it does eventually happen.

    NBC will never move SNL to primetime, for plenty of reasons. Its current timeslot is well-known, its beneficiary of little competition, and Weekend Update Thursday flopped. It doesn’t make much sense for them to rock the boat and risk it because nothing else will ever perform as well in its current timeslot.
    Well, I say “never”. They could have another attack of the Jay Lenos and start making crazy decisions again.
    Honey Badger
    Posted December 16, 2012 at 4:20 PM
    @ Oliver There have been many Saturday Night Live specials on NBC during prime time that had had good ratings
    Oliver
    Posted December 16, 2012 at 3:38 PM
    @Austin Lauran
    SNL being repeated in primetime has been suggested for years but has, as far as I know, never happened. I wouldn’t be surprised if it does eventually happen.
    NBC will never move SNL to primetime, for plenty of reasons. Its current timeslot is well-known, its beneficiary of little competition, and Weekend Update Thursday flopped. It doesn’t make much sense for them to rock the boat and risk it because nothing else will ever perform as well in its current timeslot.
    Well, I say “never”. They could have another attack of the Jay Lenos and start making crazy decisions again

    does anybody remember Jay Leno’s in primetime ratings. Where they better than some nights in its time slot now?
    I think Leno did had better ratings for NBC then some of the shows they have now.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Since you “mailed in” the list, I should have mailed in my last week’s response. :-)

    Because it hasn’t changed. The only shows of interest to me are Beauty and the Beast and Nikita.

    And Beauty and the Beast is doomed.

    And Nikita is a lock for a fourth season.

    Everything else I watch is a lock – even Hunted is likely to return on Cinemax, albeit in a new format.

    Yawn…

    Only thing I can hope for is that Revolution’s ratings crash in the spring and it gets canceled. That show is utter garbage. Last Resort was better than Revolution and it made very little sense. For some strange reason, audiences continue to think Revolution has some value despite the “Civil War” uniforms and muskets, the stupid premise, the bad directing and writing, and the general craptastic utility of the show.

    Well, at least Fringe will be gone shortly, thankfully. :-)

  • Dan S

    Last I heard was Hannibal would be scheduled late Spring. It likely could replace Do No Harm assuming it arrives with dismal numbers. Also should Smash nosedive in the ratings Tues could be another available slot before Summer. Another show needing a home is Crossbones & I thought it would’ve gone to Fridays instead of the abysmal Fashion Star.

  • JTV

    Crossbones doesn’t even have a cast yet, it is not going to be on the spring schedule. Dracula too.

  • 20mg

    I think NBC is gonna air Go On and The New Normal from January – March and launch Hannibal out of the Voice in early April. This would be the smartest option if they want a new hit drama. Both The Voice and Hannibal will run through the early summer, and could possibly grow out of little competition.

    TUESDAY:

    Off Their Rockers (January-March)

  • 20mg

    Woops. Forget last part.

  • CrimTV

    @20mg

    That’s exactly what I think NBC will do, better than weeks of repeats.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @reidjr
    Yep, Nick is right.

    @Yes, that is possible. We don’t know exactly, but that’s probably what happened with Body of Proof and Last Man Standing this past May.

    Yep again. That is why some people hate broadcast. In Cable show creators have much more powers and are more independent. In broadcast some TV execotive try to do whatever they want with the shows and take showrunners, writers and producers job. I read in sime site that CW execotives are arrogant.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @20mg

    Nope. Hannibal is 10 pm show. I think NBC wait to see if do not harm collapse and then to put it their. If not in my opinion will take 10pm on Monday after Revolution in June may be. NBC try to rebuild strong days for all year. You see in Mondays are reality – The voice, TBL, The voice again, AGT for the summer they try one more reality last summer, but flop. Sundey will be unscripted after football too. Only reality. Thursdays with comedy. Tuesday is stable too. Friday too. Only wednesday is very bad.

  • Petar Ivanov

    ps @Crossbones doesn’t even have a cast yet, it is not going to be on the spring schedule. Dracula too

    Dracula cast Jonathan Rhys Meyers already for the man lead – i guess dracula. From The tudors. GREAT actor, love him. But you are right or for the summer or for next season.

    Crossbones and Dracula are all 10 episodes(like cable shows)

    Crossbones is almost UK show not US. So expect to be the best from these three. But may be all of tham will be good enough for NBC.

  • Barbarossa

    I’ve heard Riely talking about Fox launching new stuff in the summer, but I honestly have no idea what it is.

  • reidjr

    If you look at Fox they have Hotel Hell/Master Chef/Hells Kitchen/So You Think You Can Dance which is good but it would be nice if they have a couple non reality shows.

  • reidjr

    What new shows would be a good fit on Cw?

  • Ted Craig

    @Sara

    1. While everybody under 35 you know may watch TV on Hulu, obviously not everybody under 35 does.

    2. The average of a new car buyer is a lot higher than 35 for every brand.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures