CW: Ho, Ho, Ho, Which Show(s) Gotta Go? (Poll)

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 18th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through December 16, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.44
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 0.52
Gossip Girl final season 0.56
90210 :| :| :| 0.68
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.78
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.95
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.24
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.64
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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We're into the holiday season for the Renew / Cancel Index and this post before the holiday break gives readers a chance to pick which shows they'd cancel were they a network programmer. You can vote as many times as you'd like, pick as many as you'd like. I've included every show, even canceled ones, so that no one feels left out!

Scheduling note: The Renew / Cancel Index will return with new Indexes and predictions on January 8, 2013 and will then only use the ratings since December 31, 2012 for its calculations for the remainder of the season. Expect prediction changes in the first weeks of 2013.
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Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Peter Mazzilli

    I’m a little confused about why the hell the CW didn’t air an Emily Owens promo for its ninth episode :(

  • Anthony C.

    @petermazzilli

    Why would the cw waste money to promote a canceled tv show. It’s in burn off mode and obviously no promo didn’t hurt it because it stayed pretty even from its last original episode.

  • Anthony C.

    @Alexis

    There is actual news and updates of the progress the shows the cw has in development like sleepy hollow, embrace, the tommorrow people, amazon, & sherwood. There is also a slew of others in development that don’t have the buzz or any news of those that I mentioned which doesn’t mean the others don’t have a chance of making it on the air, it just means they aren’t at head of the pack like the others are. People have their faves and make their fantasy schedules according but that doesn’t mean they positively know what is gonna be picked up but they can try to at least make a prediction all in the name of fun.

  • James

    @ Anthony C.

    proof?

  • Anthony C.

    @james

    I posted links earlier but I guess the mods took them off. Just look on deadline or the futon critic and you’ll find all info and updates you need on any shows.

  • Melanie

    The Renew/Cancel index doesn’t lie — Supernatural, Arrow & Vampire Diaries are going to be renewed. Even further, I’ll go out on a limb and say, not only renewed, but staying on the schedule in the same places. Outside chance that SPN is moved so a new show can air behind Arrow — but I would think that would be more likely in the following season (SPN’s 10th) if at all.
    I believe this because what the CW needs are hits like Arrow that can self start – they need to rebuild both Monday & Tuesday nights. Depending upon the success or failure of Carrie Diaries and whether or not 90210 gets a ‘final’ season, they could launch two full nights of ‘new’ shows and have room for three of the five (Carrie, HOD, 90210, BATB, Nikita) on Fridays & after TVD. Four new shows (for Fall) would be a lot for the CW so they will probably concentrate on one or the other night (Tuesday) in 2013 and limp along with the other(Monday) to 2014 development. By that time, Nikita & HOD (if it survives this year)will both reach syndication numbers, 90210 will be gone, and SPN will be finishing up its run. The CW needs to launch at least one ‘hit’ like Arrow next season. Or the affiliates are gonna be saying ‘Buh bye’ in 2016.

  • Anthony C.

    @Melanie

    Huh? The CW would never launch 2 new shows back to back on the same night. I don’t think The CW would take that risk both new shows could bomb terribly without a stable existing show keeping viewers watching. The CW would be screwed if they fail. It will always be 1 returning show and 1 New show each night with the exception of Fridays. They only have room for 3 new shows in the fall possibly 4 depending on if 90210’s final season & Hart Of Dixie is moved to fridays along with Nikita.

    Since supernatural is in it’s final years and still doing good being moved to tuesdays would be it’s only option. The CW will want to launch new shows before Supernatural and after Arrow.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Tom
    Forget her bad taste. Heather has bigger problems, like poor spelling (“Nakita”? Really?) and being way behind the news (Gossip Girl ended for good last month, Heather. Let it go).

    @Anthony C.
    Hmm, no. The network already has room for at least three new shows next season. Emily Owens is canceled, ANTM’s being moved to summers, and Gossip Girl is done. Also, expect at least one of 90210, Beauty and the Beast or Hart of Dixie to be canceled. And there’s whatever they decide to do about Nikita (It’s not even close to a given it won’t be moved to summers or burnoff, even if it does get a fourth season. The show has only aired six episodes so far this season compared to other shows’ nine on the network).

    That’s four slots to fill–minimum. On top of that, unless both Cult and The Carrie Diaries do well, the network will need midseason shows, as well.

    There is no reason for Supernatural to move to Tuesdays. I don’t quite understand how this stupid rumor got started or why people keep banging away at it as if it’s fact or smart programming, but the CW has no reason to break up its most successful current pairing as soon as it’s been formed.

    It’s actually not impossible that the CW could launch two new shows together on a night. Not like the older ones have done so swimmingly on Mondays and Tuesdays. What is highly unlikely is the CW premiering anything new on Fridays.

  • Melanie

    @Anthony C — If they don’t launch two new shows together then they’ll keep HOD or 90210 or Carrie on Mon or Tues to pair with a new show — why break up Wed — the only 2 hour block they have that is working? TVD is still available to launch a show (not that it seems to help all that much)

  • Diana

    plz!! dont cancel emily owens! sell it to another network or something! but i need this show!!!!! its the reason why i look forward to tuesdays!!!! i love the show!!!! after house, this is the best doctor show ever!!!

  • Zara

    To be Honest..Supernatural NEEDS to go..It has overstayed its welcome..cancel beauty and the beast as well..90210 is the only entertaining show left..IT BETTER STAY!

  • Brandy

    @snowLeopard. CW has never put two new shows together on one night before ,neither do other networks.Anthony Cs right about that.New shows always get paied up with a established show to try to help the new show.Second, yes Arrow /SPN combo is doing well on Wed but 1.once in a second season, shows become leadins,especially hit shows. 2.Arrow and VD are the only shows CW has that are/would be good leadins, so they will be used to new shows in hopes that the new show are/become hits.They have better chance of launching new hits out of these two shows.And that’s what CW must do in order to survive past a couple more seasons, launch hits.

  • Melanie

    @Brandy — the only two ‘hits’ the CW has launched since the Writer’s Strike are Vampire Diaries and Arrow. Both are self starters – NOT launched out of existing shows. That’s what the CW needs — and that’s what Mr. Pedowitz is trying to do — last year with the SMG show and this year with Arrow. A miss and a hit. They have yet to successfully launch a show from TVD. — (Nikita, sure, its hanging in there – but its a stretch to call it ‘successful’)

  • Brandy

    @Melanie yes those two and maybe 90210(can’t remember if it was a lead in or had one when it started after its two hour premiere).But those are the exception to the rule, most new shows ARE launched out of established shows and the couple that aren’t 99% of the time fail(examples:Gifted Man, Made in Jersey on CBS, Last Resort on abc)..CW needs hits,whether they’re self starters or launched out of existing shows.Ringer wasn’t a self starter, it had 90210 as a leadin.CWcneeds hits for the very reason you mentioned-only two hits in four years.CW will take them any way they get them, self starter or launched out of a established show.My point was that Arrow and VD are the only two shows that are good leadins ratings wise(despite having no luck in the post VD slot)& that Arrow will be used to leadin a new as how next season not used ascleadin for a aging show.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Brandy
    The CW has been doing a lot of things, lately, that it hasn’t done before. Launching new shows out of old ones has done very little for it, so it has no reason to break up a genuinely great pairing on Wednesdays for the dubious benefit of having those two shows launch two new shows. It’s only got three genuinely successful shows right now, so it’s going to have to try two new shows on a night at some point, anyway. Might as well do it now while they’ve got a successful night and a half going.

    And, as Melanie already pointed out, the network’s only two genuine successes so far besides the older WB/UPN shows have launched at 8pm, with no network lead-ins.

    @Zara
    SPN will definitely outlast 90210, but don’t stop believing, you crazy kid, you.

  • Tom

    Guys: I’m celebrating the New Year by ushering in a new principle of television viewership: I call it the TVBTN/Pedowitz Effect. The T/P Effect provides that the number of posts on this site will always be in inverse proportion to the ratings (and presumptive quality) of the programs under discussion. As immediate proof, I direct your attention to the fact that the comments in this thread run anywhere from 4 – 5 pages longer than the comparable ones for the other infinitely more successful networks. And this never changes. Although programs on the CW inevitably under perform in every single day’s ratings, they always draw more comments. That’s really remarkable for a network that only airs two shows per weekday evening. So, what the T/P Effect really measures is the ability of viewers to live in denial. Face it, while the CW airs about 10 shows at a time, only three of those currently have even marginally passable ratings. So, what’s to talk about? I will, however, grudgingly give snaps to those of you who have gone to the extra effort of looking up the CW’s pilots to use in creating new mock schedules for the coming season(s). From what I’ve read, your initiative will certainly be fruitless. Therefore, I’d like to thank all of you who have contributed the invaluable insights that have given rise to the development of this exciting new principle.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Tom
    I don’t see why this surprises you. Marginal shows are *always* a lot more fun to talk about than shows that are solid and/or on solid networks. It’s all about the drama.

  • fangirl

    IF BEAUTY AND THE BEAST GETS CANCELLED I WILL DIE! ITS ME AND MY SISTERS FAVORITE SHOW <33

  • JulieDawn

    @fangirl

    Dying won’t do anyone any good. BATB is my favourite show too, but if it gets cancelled I don’t want to die. I would miss out on all the complaining I could do here for the next few years. LOL

  • Alexis

    It’s too early to tell whether The CW will break up the Arrow/SPN pairing next season. Is it a gamble? Certainly, given that this is their only successful pairing at the moment. However, if they keep the pairing, while they have one strong night, they have no high-rated shows left to launch new ones except TVD (and TVD has yet to be a successful launch pad for anything).

    Separating Arrow and SPN means both can be used to launch new shows, and since the network is going for more sci-fi/fantasy/superhero shows next season, that might be a good idea. Also, regarding the whole “self-starter” thing – SPN, at least, will not be a lead-in since it’s a 9pm show, so if they pair it with a freshman, that show will have to self-start at 8pm just like Arrow did behind SPN (and three years ago, TVD).

    The key question here is how much Arrow is dependent on SPN – its midseason finale, without the SPN support, *did* tie it series low. However, if it’s able to stand on its own, it could be used to launch a new show as well. The alternative would be to keep the Wednesday pairing, but then whichever new shows they launch will have to succeed without any established shows supporting them (except TVD, which – read above). So it’s risky either way.

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