ABC: New Year's Burnoff Signals 'Happy Endings' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 8th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.54
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.60
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.72
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.84
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.86
Private Practice canceled pending
Last Resort canceled pending
Castle :) :) :) :) pending
Nashville :) :) :) :) pending
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) pending
Scandal :) :) :) :) pending
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

The bear had already begun his holiday siesta when the accelerated Sunday burn off of Don't Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 and Happy Endings'  was announced in late December. While Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 was already certain to be canceled, I figured that another 'Til Death style Sony sitcom miracle might save Happy Endings on ABC. But once the burnoff was announced that hope is all but gone. A Sony sitcom miracle is still possible, but it's a real longshot on ABC. On a cable network? Your guess is as good as mine. Desperate fans should start their futile "Save Our Show" campaigns now!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Paul

    Happy Endings will get the RoE treatment from ABC. 13 just in case to patch a hole.

  • Dan

    Sony like it did with Til Death, will slash the numbers to be able to sell the show into syndication, but will ABC want it? Probably not.

    TBS is the best hope to pick up the show and it would be the best fit. Its very similar type of show to Cougar Town and paired together, both shows would probably do well.

  • Joe

    I really don’t see how these Sunday airings change anything. ABC needed 7 episodes of Happy Endings to burn off somewhere. The options were Sunday or the summer, and ABC went with the better one for the show.

    Now, at this point, I don’t think a fourth season of Happy Endings on ABC is likely (though not impossible), but I don’t see how the Sunday airings are a bad omen.

  • Dan

    @Paul – That would be great if ABC did that with Happy Endings. We know The MIddle, Modern Family, and Suburgatory are guaranteed for Wednesdays next season along with a new comedy. The Neighbors will probably be cancelled along with Apartment 23 and ABC will probably renew Last Man Standing and Malibu Country for fridays next season. If ABC did pick up Happy Endings for midseason it could patch a hole in the schedule but ABC would rather use a new show to patch that hole unlike CBS where they would use Rules instead of a new midseason comedy as a replacement.

  • Dan

    @Joe – I don’t see how ABC can imagine either comedy doing better on Sundays but they would rather get rid of new episodes of the not-yet-cancelled HE and A23 then air new 666 Park Avenue. Now ABC wont have to worry about burning the comedies this summer and they can focus on airing 666 Park Avenues Saturdays at 10.

  • Mr Mumble

    Bill’s excuse for getting “Happy Endings” badly wrong is amusing. ABC announced their mid-season schedule, which showed “Happy Endings” having a shortage of episodes, well before the renew/cancel index took its holiday break. HE was never a bubble show as it was doing far worse than Cougar Town for ABC. The index isn’t for a generic renewal, it is for renewal on that particular network, as it says at the top of each of his pages:

    “the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.”

    The shrewd commentariat were saying HE was dead on ABC 3 months ago, we were right Bill and Robert were wrong, as usual (also see House, Outsourced, GCB et al).

  • omabin

    I think that if happy endings really was within a season of syndication it would be saved (even if not on abc), but the fact that it is still two seasons away (even if not full seasons) will likely be the deciding factor. I know some people disregard this as a technicality but while i could see abc stomaching 1 more season of the show, i just dont see them doing two seasons of it

  • Pinkle

    Had Apartment 23 flopped last season, Happy Endings would probably have stayed behind Modern Family. Don’t forget that ABC did not pick up any new non-family comedy pilots this year.

    Also, don’t forget that HE debuted almost a month after the broadcast season began, probably due to Apartment 23′s 19 episode season. If they had debuted on time, they probably would have less episodes to get through or all of the episodes would have been able to air.

    Happy Endings’ renewal depends on ABC keeping their hour of comedy open (whether it stays on Tuesday or moves elsewhere) or ABC doing the really bizarre, unexpected, and impossible move of moving HE to another comedy hour (9:30 Wednesday is really the only option here)

    Happy Endings will be to ABC like Rules of Engagement is to CBS and Community is to NBC – a filler. It’s a shame, the show had potential. I find it so jarring and amazing that a show goes from 3.0 to 1.0 in a year’s time, regardless of lead-in. Has this happened to any other show before?

  • gerry

    what’s sadder still is that abc views sundays at 10 as a burnoff timeslot. i presume they have something coming into that spot for sweeps, right?

  • Raykov

    So CBS airs original of The Mentalist on Friday – it’s a strategy and ABC airs Happy Endings on a Sunday – it’s a burn-off??? I think you get too over your head thinking ratings are main factor for a show – there’s syndication and international syndication which are too big of a factor to be ignored and HE with only 30 episodes away from the first one and being launched already across Europe is not to be ignored. You were wrong about ‘Til Death beacause of ignoring syndications and you were wrong about Body of Proof last season beacause of ignoring IntSynd…

  • Ultima

    @Raykov
    So CBS airs original of The Mentalist on Friday – it’s a strategy and ABC airs Happy Endings on a Sunday – it’s a burn-off?

    If you can’t see the difference between one episode and three to five episodes, then no explanation given is likely to satisfy you.

  • Tony JJ

    What Happy Endings fans need is for Cougar Town to do really well tonight. If it bombs in the ratings no way will TBS even think about saving HE

  • Ultima

    @gerry
    what’s sadder still is that abc views sundays at 10 as a burnoff timeslot. i presume they have something coming into that spot for sweeps, right?

    They haven’t announced their full sweeps schedule yet, but I doubt they have anything special planned. It’s only two weeks, one of which is against the Grammy Awards. Maybe a repeat of the Zero Hour pilot on 17 February?

  • Raykov

    Well – why it can’t be a try-out spot. Objectively – People watch TV on Sundays (even at 10) and there’s no big opposing comedy there so why not try a struggling show which they will renew anyway at a tough spot – if it draws – good for the broadcast, if it doesn’t – they lose only 3 episodes which were causing only schedule problems anyway…

  • steve

    Happy Endings deserves a 4th season.
    Cancel Don’t Trust The B already along with that horrible Neighbors!

  • KJ Styles

    Happy Endings only hope is for TBS to pick it up, and if Cougar Town fails there then it probably won’t happen. Sucks though, because it performed much better than Suburgatory currently is with the Modern Family lead in.

  • KJ Styles

    @Raykov- It’s not a try-out spot because new episodes are airing twice a week as opposed to once. Whenever that happens with low rated shows, it’s considered a burn off. The Mentalist only aired on Friday once and probably won’t air there again this season unless CBS decides to move it there permanently.

  • Tom

    Happy Ending on Sunday at 10 pm…does anyone know a programmer at TBS?

  • Raykov

    I still don’t think this is a burn-off or at least that it is any indication for the show to be likely to be canceled. Last year Community aired 3 episodes in the same day and they were given a 4th season and even with these 13 episodes they won’t reach the magical 88 episodes. So HE this year is Community last year and it will get renewed and the R/C will know to never put a show lowerd than a toss-up again if it is in its 3rd season.

  • Ultima

    @Raykov
    I still don’t think this is a burn-off or at least that it is any indication for the show to be likely to be canceled. Last year Community aired 3 episodes in the same day and they were given a 4th season

    You don’t see any difference between a network running a show twice a week in January and a network squeezing the final three episodes of the season into the final day of the season that the show regularly airs on?

    So HE this year is Community last year and it will get renewed and the R/C will know to never put a show lowerd than a toss-up again if it is in its 3rd season.

    You see no difference between a third season show with 71 episodes and a third season show with 57 episodes?

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