CBS: Could The New Year Save 'Vegas' From Being Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 8th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.45
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.45
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.62
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.90
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.11
Vegas :cry: :cry: pending
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

The ratings for CBS' Vegas have said "likely to be canceled" for quite some time. To make it into next season it'll take a New Year's ratings miracle. It hasn't aired a new episode yet in 2013 (but will tonight). Fans should perform whatever witchcraft they think might influence the numbers.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • LD

    How I Met Your Mother was renewed in December.

  • Jamie

    Could you please explain why Blue Bloods is higher than CSI:NY even though it ranked higher last Friday? I’m alittle confused.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Could you please explain why Blue Bloods is higher than CSI:NY even though it ranked higher last Friday? I’m alittle confused.”

    In the weekly ratings that came out today (which very, very occasionally have changes from the final ratings released the next day) Blue Bloods was adjusted down to a 1.3.

    When asked the question about what happens between the “final” ratings and the weekly ratings that come out on Tuesday, Nielsen’s response is something like “additional processing”.

  • Abigail

    Renew: 2 Broke Girls, NCIS, Mike & Molly, Criminal Minds, NCIS: Los Angeles, CSI, Hawaii Five-0, Two and a Half Men, Person of Interest, Elementary and The Good Wife.

    Cancel: The Mentalist, CSI: NY

    Renew Vegas and move it over to the summer schedule.

  • Abigail

    And renew Blue Bloods also ofcourse :)

  • CenterGravity

    I like Vegas, but it and The Good Wife should be fed to the bear.

  • Pepper

    Vegas, CSI NY will be cancelled. Elementary will be renewed. No idea about TGW or the Mentalist – could swing either way.

  • Red Jane

    CSI NY should go (procedurals are fine but they do need to bring in the ratings otherwise what’s the point???) and so should Vegas – The Mentalist I suppose it depends on how much Patrick Jane wants to continue in the job? And for how much % of profits…

  • Dan

    If Vegas as on NBC ABC or FOX it would have a chance. Unfortunately being beat by Parenthood despite a better lead in is not good news. Vegas will be axed.

    With other shows like THe Good Wife and The Mentalist battling for a spot on the 2013 fall schedule, Vegas doesnt have a chance. Its the Eleventh Hour or Defenders of this year.

    CSI NY is done. So if Golden Boy gets axed along with CSI NY and Vegas, its possible that 1 of The Mentalist or The Good Wife be cancelled.

    The Job being renewed may have an effect on a drama being cancelled because if CBS wants to timeshare The Job and Undercover Boss Fridays at 8 next season, with Blue Bloods at 10 they may want to try a new drama Fridays at 9 which means that The Good Wife or Mentalist wont move to fridays, which then means that 1 will have to be let go to have a new drama Sundays, Tuesdays, and Fridays.

  • Jamie

    @Bill Gorman

    Ok, thanks. I see that Blue Bloods is likely to be renewed because of syndication but I was alittle worried. I understand now.

  • Fake Me Out

    My new years resolution was to be more anal/OCD so I’d like to suggest the index find some graphics to indicate canceled & renewed in the table rather than using words … some suggestions are a red X & green check mark … or a red smiley face with x’s for eyes (ie dead) and a smiley face with a crown … or a happy faced bear (canceled) and sad faced bear (renewed) … or Kathy Bates (canceled) and Homer Simpson (renewed) … or [insert your ideas here]

    ymmv

  • W J

    I don’t understand why Vegas is on the cancel list when according to the weekly list it is the 9th most watched show???????

  • THE OLD MAN

    The new year Luck will not Be A Lady for Vegas.

    TGW .62 (ONO)!

  • Dan S

    As much as I enjoy Vegas the writing is on the wall. It has little competition tonight at 10pm so unless it can score 2.0 or better I’m afraid it’s toast. I like the idea of it moving over as a summer series like Unforgettable but that might be asking too much.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I don’t understand why Vegas is on the cancel list when according to the weekly list it is the 9th most watched show???????”

    Because, as some commenter may already have beaten me to it, total viewership is irrelevant to the broadcast networks, only age demo ratings make them money.

    CBS PR, however, is not bound by that reality.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “My new years resolution was to be more anal/OCD so I’d like to suggest the index find some graphics to indicate canceled & renewed in the table rather than using words … some suggestions are a red X & green check mark … or a red smiley face with x’s for eyes (ie dead) and a smiley face with a crown … or a happy faced bear (canceled) and sad faced bear (renewed) … or Kathy Bates (canceled) and Homer Simpson (renewed) … or [insert your ideas here]”

    The Index table text used to be color coded (look at the old archives), but that makes production more difficult primarily because I cannot copy and paste the HTML formatting from Mac Excel into WordPress easily.

    And I am all about the “easy”.

  • Ricky

    Poor Vegas. Just as it’s getting really good, too! But, if it comes down to this or TGW or The Mentalist to go down, I’d pick The Mentalist to survive, any day of the week.

    We want your votes! The Elimination Game: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/12/09/play-the-elimination-game-page-2/160888/comment-page-38/#comments

  • Dan

    Well heres the facts

    CBS will want to premiere 3 dramas next fall.

    Undercover Boss and The Job airing Fridays at 8 and Blue Bloods airing Fridays at 10 leaves Friday at 9 for a new show.

    This is likely the end for CSI NY, and Golden Boy probably won’t be renewed.

    I thought it was very possible for both Mentalist and Good Wife to return but despite Mentalist always rising from Good Wife, CBS can benefit from more Good Wife episodes to go over 100 for syndication.

  • Herb Finn

    re: Vegas “Fans should perform whatever witchcraft they think might influence the numbers.”

    Really? Come on, comments like this are really unprofessional, not funny and insulting to the fans of any show when similar ones are used.

  • CBSviewer

    2013- 2014 Schedule:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 – Mike & Molly
    10:00 – Hawaii Five-0

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NEW NCIS SPIN-OFF
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – Two and a Half Men
    9:00 – Person of Interest
    10:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – CSI: NY (13-15 episodes, final Season) / The Good Wife (13-15 episodes)
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SATURSDAY
    8:00 – Repeat
    9:00 – Repeat
    10:00 – 48 Hours

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Elementary
    10:00 – The Mentalist (19 episodes) / NEW DRAMA (March-April)

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