CBS: Could The New Year Save 'Vegas' From Being Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 8th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.45
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.45
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.62
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.90
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.11
Vegas :cry: :cry: pending
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

The ratings for CBS' Vegas have said "likely to be canceled" for quite some time. To make it into next season it'll take a New Year's ratings miracle. It hasn't aired a new episode yet in 2013 (but will tonight). Fans should perform whatever witchcraft they think might influence the numbers.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Melanie

    Oh, I like Vegas, but I dunno if I like it well enough to haul out my caldren . . . . .

  • Melanie

    Cauldron –geez — I think I’ll try a spell for an ‘edit’ button though!

  • TV#1

    CBS could benefit from a line up shake up next season. I think a schedule like this could help them.

    Mon:
    How I Met Your Mother
    *New Comedy*
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    Survivor

    Tue:
    NCIS
    *New Drama*
    Criminal Minds

    Wed:
    NCIS:LA
    *NCIS:LA Spinoff*
    Person of Interest

    Thur:
    The Big Bang Theory
    *New Comedy*
    Two and a Half Men
    *New Comedy*
    CSI

    Fri:
    The Mentalist
    Hawaii 5-0
    Blue Bloods

    Sun:
    60 Minutes
    The Amazing Race
    Elementary
    The Good Wife

  • Linda

    With the idea that Blue Bloods and Hawaii 5-0 are a certainty because of syndication, why does that premise not apply to The Good Wife in its 4th season and a 5th would be even better for syndication, plus it is an award winning show.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “With the idea that Blue Bloods and Hawaii 5-0 are a certainty because of syndication, why does that premise not apply to The Good Wife in its 4th season and a 5th would be even better for syndication, plus it is an award winning show.”

    Awards are irrelevant.

    Achieving the fourth season is the critical threshold for stripped syndication. GW is already there and has yet to be sold into syndication. BB is not yet there yet. H50 is not there yet, and has already been sold into syndication.

    I will not be surprised if GW is renewed, but it’s not nearly the certainty that Blue Bloods and Hawaii Five-0 are.

  • KJ Styles

    I fear that Vegas, Good Wife, Mentalist, and Golden Boy will be the only headlines in the CBS index for the rest of the season.

  • KJ Styles

    I wouldn’t say that awards are irrelevant, especially when it comes to The Good Wife. if it weren’t for it’s awards, it would have been cancelled two seasons ago. It certainly isn’t still on the air because of it’s ratings.

  • gerry

    @kj

    good wife’s ratings have declined over time. awards are a factor, but a secondary factor to ratings, production house ownership and the like. i say good wife gets the renewal (fingers crossed for vegas’ obvious and golden boy’s hopeful cancellations) over mentalist, but the ratings for it don’t really matter. its a syndication issue, and between the two the good wife would be profit to cbs, whereas mentalist would not.

  • badman

    did cbs announced himym next season as the last season? also is it a full or half season??

  • DW

    vegas is done. csi : ny is done. my head says mentalist since cbs doesn’t own it and its getting up there but gut says the sunday night lineup stays for next season.

  • NY

    I heard production costs for CSI: NY and The Mentalist are around $ 3 million per episodes. The Mentalist is not owned by CBS so it probably means CSI: NY is closer to Renewal than The Mentalist.
    Plus The Mentalist is not stable and it fell to 1.4. CSI: NY is between 1.4 and 1.5 this season.
    Considering CSI: NY made more money than Miami last year (which got a 2.3) it’s probably making more money than The Mentalist and The Good Wife.
    My bet is Rules of Engagement, Vegas, The Mentalist, Partners, Made in Jersey, Friend Me and Golden Boy = canceled.
    The Good Wife moves to Friday at 9/8c for mid-season while CSI: NY airs until February. Hawaii Five-0 moves to Sunday at 10/9c, Elementary on Sunday at 9/8c.
    CBS could premiere new dramas on Monday at 10/9c, Tuesday at 10/9c, Friday at 8/7c and replace Elementary by a veteran Show on Thursday at 10/9c.

  • Blake Williams

    If CBS wants to premiere new dramas next season then use Saturday night.I remember watching All in the Family 40 years ago……I love Vegas, The Good Wife, The Mentalist, and CSI:NY and would to have them all come back. If I had to pick one, I would choose CSI:NY because it has been on for 9 seasons. With our baby boomers aging, The networks should really start considering total viewers more of which I am one.

  • Sil

    I think Blue Bloods is certain for renewal (syndication, aside) because of one main fact: it’s the highest rated Friday night show, 99% of the time.

  • JacobYates

    This past week, Vegas’ ratings were boosted from a 1.6 to a 2.0 by DVR viewership. Why is this not a factor taken into consideration by networks if it is technically pulling a 2.0 and not a 1.6? Its viewership received a considerable boost as well, going from 9.8 million to 12 million viewers. This confuses me.

  • Ultima

    @Blake Williams
    With our baby boomers aging, The networks should really start considering total viewers more of which I am one.

    Why? The advertisers still won’t pay for them.

    If CBS wants to premiere new dramas next season then use Saturday night

    Because that has worked out so well in the past 15 years?

  • Ultima

    @JacobYates
    This past week, Vegas’ ratings were boosted from a 1.6 to a 2.0 by DVR viewership. Why is this not a factor taken into consideration by networks if it is technically pulling a 2.0 and not a 1.6? Its viewership received a considerable boost as well, going from 9.8 million to 12 million viewers. This confuses me.

    The networks do take DVR viewership into consideration, ad rates are typically priced off of the C+3 rating – commercials viewed within 3 days.

    You also have to keep in mind that while Vegas’ ratings improve with DVR viewership, so do the ratings of every other show. Typically, the ranking of shows changes little when going from Live+SD ratings to Live+7 ratings.

  • Spun

    What has me wondering if Vegas has some mojo going at CBS is they’re running commercials now & touting it on website as their ‘new hit drama!’. Seems like that’s throwing egg on your own face if it look to be headed to the chopping block.

  • Ultima

    @Sil
    fact: it’s the highest rated Friday night show, 99% of the time.

    Nonsense.

    Undercover Boss has been higher rated than Blue Bloods every single week. CSI:NY has beaten Blue Bloods several times this season.

    If you meant overall, Grimm beats it pretty much every week as well.

  • Ultima

    @Spun
    What has me wondering if Vegas has some mojo going at CBS is they’re running commercials now & touting it on website as their ‘new hit drama!’

    Every network thinks all of their new shows are hits. Well, maybe not the ones that get canceled after the first week… ;)

    There’s some small chance the show will rebound and get a second season. It’s far too early for CBS to just give up on the show.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “What has me wondering if Vegas has some mojo going at CBS is they’re running commercials now & touting it on website as their ‘new hit drama!’. Seems like that’s throwing egg on your own face if it look to be headed to the chopping block.”

    Trying to divine the future from network PR is silly. They tout whatever they still have on the air, whenever they can tout it, because as long as it’s still is on the air, it’s still being sold to advertisers.

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