CBS: Could The New Year Save 'Vegas' From Being Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 8th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.45
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.45
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.62
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.90
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.11
Vegas :cry: :cry: pending
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

The ratings for CBS' Vegas have said "likely to be canceled" for quite some time. To make it into next season it'll take a New Year's ratings miracle. It hasn't aired a new episode yet in 2013 (but will tonight). Fans should perform whatever witchcraft they think might influence the numbers.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @Spun

    Also, due to CBS scheduling all of their midseason premieres in February to take advantage of the Super Bowl, they have plenty of self promotion time available right now to push something like Vegas.

  • Petar Ivanov

    By the way POI facebook page is on all time high with more than 37 000 talked. And a lot of new people are add and asking for the show after last episode. Expext new series high this week.

  • robby

    Monday
    8/7c hiym
    830/730c new comedy
    9/8c 2 broke girls
    930/830c Mike and Molly
    10/9c Hawaii five O

    tuesday
    8/7c Ncis
    9/8c Ncis spinoff
    10/9c New Drama

    Wednesday
    8/7c Survivor
    9/8c Ncis Los Angeles
    10/9c Csi

    Thursday
    8/7c The Big Bang Theory
    830/730c New Comedy
    9/8c Criminal Minds
    10/9c Blue Bloods

    Friday
    8/7c Undercover Boss
    9/8c The Mentalist (Final Season 13 -15 Episodes) The Good Wife (spring)
    10/9c The Job

    Saturday
    crimetime saturday and 48 Hours

    sunday
    7/6c 60 Minutes
    8/7c The Amazing Race
    9/8c Person Of Interest
    10/9c New Drama

    Im Not totally sold on this schedule but i think csi Ny finally gets axed this season criminal minds moving to thursday nights is a long shot i almost forgot about it. i believe the mentalist and the Good wife will alternate fall and spring with 13 to 15 episode final seasons. but i think we are all in agreement about ncis los angeles moving to a new night next season the question is which night i chose Wednesday Night because i believe cbs will want to get the ratings from the mothership. Vegas either becomes a summer series for 2014 or gets cancelled

  • Petar Ivanov

    One more thing Sarah Shahi arc sounds like potential spin-off. From months i am talking about POI spin-off with female lead. Will be so happy if they can do this. POI is best lead-in for new dramas on broadcast network right now and POI spin-off is best way to do it.

  • NY

    @ Petar Ivanov

    Are you serious ? PoI is a good lead-in but it won’t have a spin-off for two reasons:
    - Its ratings are not high enough to have a spin-off (2.9 at this point of the season)
    - This Show is too young. The only Shows which got spin-offs that early are CSI and CSI: Miami. The other like (NCIS, Criminal Minds, JAG,…) with higher ratings than PoI waited several years before having a Spin-off series.

  • Petar Ivanov

    When will be CBS on TCA press tour. I mean what day and who from POI will be there. thanks a lot for any info guys.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @NY

    POI is only growing drama. And POI spin-off will be after season 3. If Sarah Shahi arc is great, she will be main lead in season 3 and then will start POI spin off. THis will be also POI peak end of season 3 begining of season 4. Best time to place spin-off.

    ps POI is not ‘good lead-in’. Its BEST lead-in for dramas. Look in last season TM ratings. Look in this season Elementary. Its compitable and is better lead-in from relity or even comedy.

  • NY

    @ Petar Ivanov

    PoI is not the Best lead-in. TM ratings fell last season and Elementary went up last week because of TBBT new record that impacted the whole night. Elementary usually got a 2.2-2.3 not much. The Best lead-in is NCIS !

  • thesnowleopard

    I’m enjoying Vegas, but I don’t expect it to get a second season. Would like to be proven wrong, though.

  • Dan

    Every network has positive PR about a show but that wont stop the show from getting cancelled. Unforgettable was CBS’s new hit drama, then it was cancelled but then renewed strangely.

    Networks have positive things to say about all shows, even the lower rated ones and then they get axed. Vegas will be cancelled.

    @Bill – When I look at shows I dont compare Good Wife to H50 and Blue Bloods becauser the situations are different. BB and H50 are certain for renewal because of syndication probably for a few more seasons because BB is a Friday staple and H50 is good for mondays for a while. Those shows I can see being around for a few more seasons, or at least until CBS gets another real hit drama.
    The Good Wife has the best chance to be renewed among Mentalist and CSI NY. CSI NY has a 17 episode order and is being quickly burned through in favor of Golden Boy. After 2 times being on the bubble, and another CSI spinoff axed last season its time for this 1 to go. Despite Mentalist being rated higher and building on The Good Wife, CBS will renew The Good Wife for a likely 13 episode final fifth season (Think Chuck or Fringe) to get it past 100 eps, in hopes that they will finally get a syndication deal.

  • Dinaminjo

    CBS could give up on Sundays 10pm slot. It is volatile.. Or just leave The Mentalist there..

    They need 3 slots for new dramas..
    Hopefully Mon – Thur since launching something Fridays or Sundays doesn’t work too well..

    ATM they have Tuesday (Vegas) and two slots on Friday..

    I could see H50 going Fridays in a hope to achieve a long time run with the need of just average ratings plus BB plus CSI..

    That would free another two week slots (Monday + Tuesday + Wednesday)..
    And if (when) a new show flops CSI can move back..

  • DJ

    Can someone answer me this though, if its likely that CSI NY and Vegas are gone, then aren’t those the two shows that CBS will cancel—shouldn’t that then make it highly likely baring some unforseen circumstance that The Mentalist AND Good Wife would return? Also even if Golden Boy is a hit and comes back, your still cancelling two out of the four in Mentalist, CSI NY, Vegas and Good Wife which was initially what we thought would be needed to happen? In other words, if CSI NY and Vegas are cancelled, does that mean its a good bet that both mentalist and good wife are renewed and if not why, I’m still confused by that?

    Also does the Mentalists .73 vs Good Wife’s .62 mean its slightly more likely to be renewed even though both are in the 50-50 range or does that number not account for things like syndication deals, and if not, how much impact can do those things truly play?

  • omar

    Elementary in safe place
    csi good bye
    the good wife come on i don’t know who whatch that crap

  • Dan

    @DJ – Its all about slots for CBS, unlike ABC and NBC and FOX which schedule changes a lot year to year, CBS usually has the same schedule (Next year Hawaii 50, Blue Bloods, NCIS, NCIS LA, Criminal Minds, Survivor, The Big Bang THeory, and Person of Interest will probably be in the same slots and HIMYM, 2BG and M&M will probably stay on Mondays) They have free slots for new dramas usually Friday at 8 or 9, Tuesday at 10 and either Thursday at 10 or Sundays at 10. They premiere 3 dramas every fall which means that after Vegas and CSI NY is axed, 1 more drama has to be cancelled not including Golden Boy because its timeshared with CSI NY. Its speculated to be one of the two lowest rated dramas The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Cancelling 2 dramas and moving UB to midseason wont help and if The Job is sucessful, it can time share next season with UB each for 13 eps Fridays at 8.

    My guess is that if Mentalist is cancelled with Vegas and CSI NY, then Good Wife will probably remain on Sundays at 9, Hawaii 50 could move to Sundays at 10, Elementary could move to Mondays at 10, new NCIS spinoff will likely air Tuesdays at 10, and a new drama will air at Thursdays at 10 and Fridays at 9.

    Heres a guess

    Sundays
    8:00 The Amazing Race
    9:00 The Good Wife
    10:00 Hawaii 5-0

    Mondays
    8:00 HIMYM
    8:30 New Comedy
    9:00 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 Mike & Molly
    10:00 Elementary

    Tuesday
    8:00 NCIS
    9:00 NCIS LA
    10:00 NCIS Spinoff

    Wednesday
    8:00 Survivor
    9:00 Criminal Minds
    10:00 CSI

    Thursday
    8:00 The Big Bang THeory
    8:30 Two and a Half Men
    9:00 Person of Interest
    10:00 New Drama

    Friday
    8:00 UB/ The Job
    9:00 New Drama
    10:00 Blue Bloods

    I can’t see CSI NY being renewed, because CBS needs to free fridays up for a drama f they want to keep UB leading the night. Sundays at 10 will be freed too if Mentalist gets axed and The Good Wife will likely get a final season. If CBS holds UB until midseason and Mentalist gets renewed they could move The Good Wife to Fridays at 9, air a new drama Fridays at 8 and air a new drama Sundays at 9 (providing The Mentalist stays Sundays at 10) Vegas wont be renewed because CBS needs that slot for NCIS spinoff number 3 so bye bye Vegas.

  • Tombaker

    Face it, the predictive power of the bear index, is a joke. You would be the same theorists that Said that friends would be canceled because it’s first seasons numbers weren’t well enough. That there are so many people that are posting here that say that they like Vegas but They expect Vegas to be canceled, is a strong indicator that content beats your failed numbering system.

    Anyone watching the show will see a huge list of top actors that are joining the show if nothing else I gives you an idea who the producers are in the casting directors and that Vegas is a connected show.

    TV by the Numbers is Now so myopically focused on the numbers that they don’t recognize the content and the likelihood that good content will find the following is given enough time

  • Holly

    @Tombaker,

    That there are so many people that are posting here that say that they like Vegas but They expect Vegas to be canceled, is a strong indicator that content beats your failed numbering system.

    Actually, Vegas getting renewed would be a strong indicator that the system doesn’t work in predictions. Internet comments are meaningless.

  • iamiboo

    Can someone explain to me why CSI:NY will likely to be canceled? They do like 9 Million till 10 Million and did an 5.9 last week?

  • Ben

    CBS, don’t mess with POI. It stays where it is — Thursday 9pm ET.

  • Nick

    @iamiboo

    Can someone explain to me why CSI:NY will likely to be canceled? They do like 9 Million till 10 Million and did an 5.9 last week?

    The fact that it gets 9 million/10 million viewers a week is irrelevant. That doesn’t matter. What matters is the Adults 18-49 demographic, in which CSI: NY did a 1.4 this past week, not 5.9. That 1.4 is at 45% of CBS’s average, which is very bad.

  • Court

    Csiny do better you get to keep it. Rating better this year.

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