CBS: Could The New Year Save 'Vegas' From Being Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 8th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.45
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.45
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.62
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.90
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.11
Vegas :cry: :cry: pending
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
How I Met Your Mother** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

The ratings for CBS' Vegas have said "likely to be canceled" for quite some time. To make it into next season it'll take a New Year's ratings miracle. It hasn't aired a new episode yet in 2013 (but will tonight). Fans should perform whatever witchcraft they think might influence the numbers.

Why are Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"? Both dramas are in their third seasons and need a fourth to reach the "magic" 88 episodes for stripped syndication. Both are "certain to be renewed" for their fourth seasons next year. Read more about that here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • JacobYates

    @Tombaker

    I completely agree with you. For instance, before fox cancelled Terra Nova, they said that it was profitable for the network, despite its average nielsen numbers and above average budget ($15 million for the pilot and $4 million for each episode after that). It goes to show that even lower ratings can lead to a show making money for a network.

    Now back to Vegas. You’re right about people expecting a cancellation even though they like the show, myself among them. The 18-49 demographic has come to symbolize fear in the TV universe. People know that even if their show is watched by 10+ million viewers almost every time, that it is meaningless if the show can’t pull a 2.0 or higher. That said, Vegas also pulled in 10.92 million viewers and a 2.5/6 in the 25-54 demographic. Why is the 25-54 demographic not as important as the 18-49 demographic and why is total viewership not as important either. As and advertiser, I’d want 10 million people seeing my product advertised, not 2.5 percent of a group of 5,000 people.

    Quality or viewership now mean so little to networks and a lot of great shows have been put down because of it (see Terra Nova, Firefly, Chicago Code, etc.)

  • NY

    @ JacobYates

    Advertisers think the 18-49 are more prone to buy their products.
    I agree with you viewership should count. Look at yesterday episode of NCIS which was watched by 21.11 million people and got a 3.5.
    A 3.5 is equal to 4,429 million (Adults 18-49 are 126.54 million in the US). It means 16.68 million viewers weren’t A 18-49. Advertisers should consider other viewers who can be interested in their products either.

  • Young

    CSI: NY and Vegas will likely be the canceled ones if no others are. The Mentalist & Good Wife will likely be renewed but I feel if there is no major improvement in ratings in Fall 2013, they should take on a “final season” labeling in their 2014 returns.

    The ratings for those two shows are kind of dismal really. I love The Good Wife too folks, but I’d rather it go out than be axed. Next season should be the last, same goes for Mentalist.

    A show I’d LOVE to see crash & burn in the ratings, Criminal Minds. Season 8 is deplorable, just awful, these “new writers” need to go and they honestly need to call Paget Brewster back up.

  • Petar Ivanov

    I will write it later but kaley cuoco was amazing on PCA. She must demand at least 1 million $ per episode. Period. In fact all TBBT main cast deserves 1 million per episode. If CBS clearly make big time mistake and overpaid for Kutcher with his 700 000 per episode cuoco and all TBBT team deserve any $ from this 1 million. But ok i will comment later on. That is for now.

  • DJ

    @Dan, Thanks for the explanation, so then is there a possible scenario where both the Mentalist and Good Wife are renewed? Because the title of one of the earlier articles was that it was guranteed one of the three dramas CSI NY, Mentalist or Good Wife would be cancelled, not two. I get why you said there could be two axed, but I was wondering if there was a possibility of only CSI NY getting axed and if so how likely was it?

  • CBSviewer

    @ DJ

    If you mean ONLY CSI: NY will be canceled. There’s NO chances CBS only cancels one. At least three of CBS dramas will go. The other ones are likely Vegas and Golden Boy. If Golden Boy is Renewed one of The Mentalist or TGW will be axed too.
    For me, CSI: NY should be Renewed for a 13 episodes final season and stay on Friday at 9/8c. Same thing for TGW which could premiere in February 2014. The Mentalist needs to stay on Sunday at 10/9c with a 19 episodes order. Elementary moves to Sunday at 9/8c.

  • Leverage-Fan

    I have a feeling “The Mentalist” will be cancelled. This would be the third series I like which ended in its fifth season in the current season. (But unlike “Merlin” and “Leverage”, which got a truly series finale, I have no hope the producers of “The Mentalist” will tie up the the story this season) I hope, if CBS is willing to cancel the show, Warner could make a deal with CBS to give “The Mentalist” one last season. “CHUCK”, “Fringe”, “Gossip Girl” or “Smallville” got clearly one last season and most of these shows because Warner made a deal regarding the costs with the network.

  • DJ

    @Dan and CBSviewer and whomever else is interested: I figured out my question earlier, 3 dramas have to be cancelled but that doesn’t mean if CSI NY and Vegas are cancelled that The Mentalist or Good Wife have to be cancelled, because the third drama Jersey Shore has already been cancelled. CSI NY, Vegas, Jersey Shore would be enough. Now if Golden Boy is renewed, then Good Wife or Mentalist will have to be axed(and while I really hope I’m wrong I can’t help but think the Good Wife has the edge in that race). If the odds play themselves, and Vegas and CSI NY are cancelled as is being projected and Golden Boy doesn’t last which is also a fairly legitimate possibility, then Good Wife and Mentalist fans look like they might be able to last for one more year(although its not a lock, its not 100% out of the realm of possibility Mentalist or Good Wife gets cancelled even still for whatever reason)

  • CBSviewer

    The prouction cost of CSI: NY is equal to The Mentalist production cost (around $3 million per episode). The Mentalist fell to a 1.4 once this season and its season high is 2.1. CSI: Miami was canceled with an average of 2.3 (Season high = 2.6 and season low 1.7). Plus The Mentalist is not owned by CBS. It seems The Mentalist is a goner.

  • JacobYates

    @DJ

    I think you mean Made in Jersey

  • Tombaker

    Holly, you posted agreement to the failed predictive power of the bear index,as if you we’re offering something new??? We agreed, and especially about your Internet comments. ;-P

    The problem with networks, that have high viewer shows, is they often have weakling ad salesmen. Just because you have viewers over 50, does not mean you can not have sales of ads to that market too. Plus younger viewers are more likely to bypass commercials more effectively.

    I know the common belief is that by age 50, consumers are so set in there ways that the will not change there product choices, and advertising is useless on them…..but as baby boomers age, that paradigm has shifted.

  • Nick

    @DJ

    In that whole jumbled mess, you are missing one vital point. CBS does not need to cancel three shows. It needs to have three slots open in the fall. When you factor in complicated timeslot shares, the two become vastly different.

    Here’s how it breaks down:
    • CSI: NY, Vegas, The Good Wife, The Mentalist, and Golden Boy each have a chance of being cancelled.
    • If CBS cancelled all 5 of them, they would have 4 slots open: Tue@10, Fri@9, Sun@9, and Sun@10.
    • Thus, CBS needs to cancel 4 at the most.
    • CBS also has the option of pushing back Undercover Boss, so it can cancel 1 less drama. However, if they did that, their Friday ratings would most likely fall apart.

    From this information, I am going to guess that Vegas, CSI: NY, The Mentalist, and Golden Boy will be cancelled. You can pick your own 4 (or 3). Choose how you view this information, but don’t guess without it.

  • geri

    The Mentalist should stay. It has the best of both worlds, a funny procedural.

  • Ali W

    If CBS REALLY WANTS TO CANCELL ANY SHOWS, IT SHOULD THEIR LOWEST SHOWS IN TNE RATINGS. AND I CAN TELL YOU VEGAS IS ONE OF THE BEST BEST BEST NEW SHOW. THEY COULD HAVE. IT WOULD BE, VERY MESSY AND UGLY IF THEY ARE STUPID ENOUGH, TO CANCEL A SHOW LIKE THAT. AND THE LOWSET SHOWS ON CBS ARE : CSI NY, AND THE MENTALIST. THESE 2 should cancelled.

  • Networkman

    CBS has struggled to establish a drama on Tuesday @10pm. So instead of premiering a new drama in that timeslot I would simply move Hawaii Five-O behind NCIS:LA. I feel CBS is really hoping that alot of new viewers take to Elementary and then they will be able to move that to another night. Monday @10pm would most likely be the best spot. CBS has to be really considering having 2 hours of comedy on Thursday night. If this is the case, Person of Interest could move to 10pm or even being moved to another night.

  • Networkman

    Vegas and CSI:NY will be cancelled. The Mentalist and The Good Wife can both come back. The Good Wife’s episode order should be reduced though. 13-16 episodes of a final season would be great. It should come back on Sunday night once football is over. Until then, CBS should make Sunday night, an all reality night.

    Sunday
    7pm 60 Minutes
    8pm Undercover Boss
    9pm Amazing Race
    10pm Survivor
    The Good Wife would air 10pm at midseason

    Monday
    8pm How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 New Comedy
    9pm Two & A Half Men
    9:30 Mike & Molly
    10pm New Drama

    Tuesday
    8pm NCIS
    9pm NCIS:LA
    10pm Hawaii Five-0

    Wednesday
    8pm New Drama (Beverly Hills Cop)
    9pm Criminal Minds
    10pm Elementary

    Thursday
    8pm The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 New Comedy
    9pm 2 Broke Girl
    9:30 New Comedy
    10pm Person of Interest

    Friday
    8pm The Mentalist
    9pm CSI
    10pm Blue Bloods

  • Petar Ivanov

    @ Networkman

    You move so many CBS shows…..i mean CBS can’t move so many shows from 5 years as you did it for 5 seconds. And on what world #1 network will make so many changes and stay Mondays to collapse? TAHM without TBBT lead in won’t survive. ANd if all these so many new comedies callapse like this year with all networks than what??? you will move all these shows again??? Not to mention that you put CBS new hit fresh and only one young(there for cheap- no big contracts) abd growing drama on 10. Your schedule really can destroy everything CBS buld in last 10 years for 3 months.

    Now you take award worst schedule of the year. Sorry.

    ps Only in your mind CBS will put new drama as lead-in. POI pilot wich “According to CBS, Person of Interest received the highest test ratings of any drama pilot in 15 years” but even this show was on thursday(CSI slot) on 9pm.

  • Petar Ivanov

    OK guys after epic last night episode we have 3 weeks POI break, but after that 4 episodes in a row – 31(episode after BEST DRAMA EPISODE THIS SEASON), 7(super bowl week), 14(Grammys week), 21(Jonathan Nolan debut as director and Sarah Shahi series debut).

    If CBS advertise it heavy and properly(use Nolan name) this will make POI true drama BEAST. Again quality is already there on LOST levels.(and all critics name LOST top 10 drama of all time) Hope CBS really do their job this show deserves only the best. Because is BEST.

  • Petar Ivanov

    News of the day POI game on the way may be……….

    Creator Jonathan Nolan Thinks Person Of Interest Would Make A Fascinating Game – Forbes
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngaudiosi/2013/01/09/creator-jonathan-nolan-thinks-person-of-interest-would-make-a-fascinating-game/

    Jonathan Nolan:
    I’m a big gamer. I know the lead time and how long it takes to develop a game and how hard it is to get it right. But if we had unlimited resources and time I’d think a Person of Interest game could be really fascinating. As games get more sophisticated they become more about the human and about interaction. I’m a big fan of the Mass Effect games and that’s all about social manipulation and observing people and alliances and relationships. I feel like there’s something in that space that can be very exciting with our show.

  • PhilipM

    @CBSviewer: Do you have any links that would support your statement that CSI: NY’s and TM’s production costs are identical? I doubt TM is as expensive as CSI: NY.

    CSI: Miami averaged a 2.1 last season, not a 2.3. In addition, network television is down this year (CBS as much as 16%), especially the 10 PM hour.

    One could argue that TM is having a harder time drawing an audience simply because TGW is down from averaging a 2.0 to a 1.7 this year. More importantly than that, every single CBS show at 10 PM looks bad when compared to last season.

    What meant certain cancellation last year, could easily be a toss-up or even a likely renewal this year. Unforgettable averaged a 2.4 this time last season, exactly the type of numbers that make Elementary likely to renewed this season. 10 PM on CBS has changed.

    That’s why comparing TM’s numbers to those of CSI: Miami doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. I agree, though, that TM is on the bubble and will remain there until the end of the season. It could easily be canceled because of being of little interest to CBS as a WB show. Actually, being a WB show would probably be the main reason if it was canceled. When it comes to numbers, a 2.x on Sundays at 10 PM doesn’t warrant cancellation anymore–not when the 9 PM lead-in scores a whopping 1.7.

    If it was about ratings, TM would likely be renewed. But it’s about more than that.

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