CW: New Year, Same Deathmatch Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & '90210'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 8th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Nothing has changed in the New Year yet between the three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) and at least one of them is certain to be canceled.

Will we be able to predict which one it will be? Certainly late season ratings dives might make the difference (hello, The Secret Circle!). But barring one of those, we may be flipping a three sided coin.

The renewal of either CW spring drama (Cult, The Carrie Diaries) would almost certainly mean more cancellations among those three.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Jamie

    My schedule for the CW fall 2013

    Monday
    8-The Carrie Diaries (I feel like this is going to do well)
    9-Hart of Dixie (I think it will grow in old spot)

    Tuesday
    8-New Drama – (continue the pattern of launching new dramas first)
    9-Supernatural- (this show has 2-3 more seasons left in it so put it in death spot)

    Wednesday
    8-Arrow – (works, don’t move it)
    9-New Drama – (some that works with Arrow)

    Thursday
    8-The Vampire Diaries ()
    9- New Drama (good male drama, to go against grey’s and glee)

    Friday
    8-Beauty and the Beast-(the new nikita)
    9-Nikita- (Final Season)

  • CrimTV

    @Jamie

    Like it, apart from I believe The CW should put Supernatural after The Vampire Diaries. SPN already has a following and an audience so it doesn’t need to rely on TVD as a good lead-in, and CW could be looking at a 1.0+ average for the night.

  • SueP

    Actually, I think Supernatural helps Arrow just as much as Arrow helps Supernatural. Like you said, SPN has it’s own following, and I’m guessing there are plenty of people like me, who watch Arrow because it’s on before SPN. If SPN moves to another night, I might not make the effort to watch Arrow — and I wouldn’t watch TVD — so leaving it where it is may actually be more of a benefit to the network (seeing as how they are already getting a second 1.0+ night with the Wednesday lineup as it is) than moving it. Arrow and SPN are very compatible and gives the CW a strong night of viewership.

  • israelCD

    Bye Bye BEAUTY AND THE BEAST !
    Go HART OF DIXIE and SUPERNATURAL !

  • Red Jane

    In a land of mediocre (or worst) ratings, I’d say Hart of Dixie has slightly better chances than the other two… It is cheap to produce, on its 2nd season (vs. B&B) and the writing has somewhat improved this 2nd season so ratings might improve a bit or not decrease as B&B’s will. So mild vote of confidence to HoD….

  • John A

    I hate seeing made up schedules we have no way of knowing what will be picked up yet so why bother?

  • Melanie

    Bill, What if they do the 10-13 ep final season of 90210 as a midseason show — do they still cancel one of HOD & BATB? Even if Carrie and Cult (only planned for 10-13 ep seasons -midseason, apparently) both hit, they would still have 3 fall slots: EO,MD’s, 90210’s and Fridays at 9 — for new shows.
    Granted, a new show probably won’t be slotted for Friday, but HOD could be shunted there to amass episodes a la Nikita, or 90210 for that matter.

  • Jamie

    @CrimTV

    Thanks, I thought about putting it there but then I saw how a lot of shows have been canceled in the Tuesday 9/8 spot and thought since the CW is probably going to keep it around for a few more seasons, then it could be put there, actually work and then with a good drama before, finally give the CW the strong night it once had so long ago. Plus, I feel like the Cw is making some strong male-focused pilots somewhat like Arrow that could work there after VD since the female ones have been weak.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, What if they do the 10-13 ep final season of 90210 as a midseason show — do they still cancel one of HOD & BATB? Even if Carrie and Cult (only planned for 10-13 ep seasons -midseason, apparently) both hit, they would still have 3 fall slots: EO,MD’s, 90210?s and Fridays at 9 — for new shows.
    Granted, a new show probably won’t be slotted for Friday, but HOD could be shunted there to amass episodes a la Nikita, or 90210 for that matter.”

    There are various scenarios you could come up with that could get all three of those shows into next season, but I don’t think they are very likely.

  • Jared

    Out of those 3 I don’t see Hart of Dixie getting cancelled especially if The Carrie Diaries becomes a hit. The fact that HoD can still pull in over 1 million+ viewers for a repeat makes me believe this shows in pretty good shape for a renewal.

  • Dan S

    I think the upcoming Cult could be a surprise hit for it very much like Grimm was for NBC. I think the Carrie Diaries will fail miserably & 90210 will not return.

  • JoJo

    The past couple season the CW has had trouble launching series in the Tuesday..Thursday and Friday 9pm timeslot. Why don’t they put existing series in those slots and launch new series at 8pm?. Clearly putting seasoned series as a launching pad for new ones isn’t doing the job.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Agree with your post here, William.

    “The Carrie Diaries” looks so young there is no chance whatsoever this old man will be watching.

  • Wright

    Cancel 90210 already….please. “The Carrie Diaries” looks horrible.I’m going to definitely watch “Cult” because of Matt Davis and T-Bag. SPN,TVD, Arrow and Nikita are always good. HOD has potential. Don’t really care what happens to B&tB.

  • Melanie

    Thanks, Bill. You’re right, of course – its not likely, and clearly, the network’s future doesn’ lie with any of them. I just wonder about how much $ CW has to play with in launching new shows.

  • Renee

    @THE OLD MAN

    I’m like you. There is zero chance I’ll watch The Carrie Diaries.

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought CW was moving away from young teenage girls shows. HOD, B&TB, Arrow, Nikita, Supernatural these shows are all about adults not teens. Carrie Diaries just seems like an odd choice, moving backwards not forward.

  • omabin

    I think beauty and the beast is dead barring a ratings surge in winter and spring, which is unlikely. hart of dixie and 90210 depend on cult and the carrie diaries performance, but i think both will be back

  • Hadesa

    Jensen and Daneel Ackles today announced that they are expecting, while it doesnt affect season 8 it will certainly affect a potential season 9 of SPN. I’m not sure Jensen will want to do another season more so since they will be filming the early episodes of season 9 around the time the baby is due (July/August)?

  • Melanie

    @Hadesa Both J’s have said they are on board for 9&10. People said stuff like this when Jared & Gen were expecting and production wasn’t disrupted. Besides, since when does a father-to-be quit his job when the family is expanding?

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I don’t see Beauty and the Beast surviving. There’s no “there there” other than some good-looking people.

    90210 needs to go away, but might get a final short season.

    I still doubt either Cult or Carrie will be successes. Matt Davis is cool but I’m not sure he can carry a show. More importantly, the premise is still oddball and confused. Carrie is just another typical CW stroke show and that isn’t where the network needs to go.

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