CW: New Year, Same Deathmatch Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & '90210'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 8th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Nothing has changed in the New Year yet between the three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) and at least one of them is certain to be canceled.

Will we be able to predict which one it will be? Certainly late season ratings dives might make the difference (hello, The Secret Circle!). But barring one of those, we may be flipping a three sided coin.

The renewal of either CW spring drama (Cult, The Carrie Diaries) would almost certainly mean more cancellations among those three.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Hadesa

    Jared and Jensen have extended their contracts but that doesn’t mean seasons 9 and 10 have to happen.

    For the record I think Jensen will want to carry on with the show, the writers will just have to accommodate for his schedule like they did with Jared. If they’re smart they’ll just write the fist handful of episodes of the new season Dean light.

  • Hadesa

    @Melanie

    The J’s negotiated for lighter schedules when they renewed their contracts, I imagine it wont affect them much. They can easily allow for a reduced schedule for Jensen by filming his scenes around the due date and writing Dean light episodes.

  • Hadesa

    @Pata Legal

    so you’ve said before

    Why don’t you try switching the channel when something you like comes on, maybe to a sitcom since its clear you don’t actually know what one is?

  • Hadesa

    damb it I meant something you DONT like! Man I need an edit button

  • Wright

    SPN is a great show. Sounds like your the sexually-frustrated fat female to me.

  • Hadesa

    @Kathleen Mary

    1-The only critics that actually count are the ones that are aged 18-49 have a Nielsen box, eyes and bums on seats when Nikita is on. Clearly those critics have found the show somewhat lacking.

    2-Nikita has not hit a 0.5 once this season

  • Hadesa

    @Wright

    more likely a fan of one of the shows that is more likely to be cancelled?

  • Melanie

    @Hadesa “Jared and Jensen have extended their contracts but that doesn’t mean seasons 9 and 10 have to happen.”

    Correct. However, it is extremely likely that 9 & 10 will happen, based on the state of the CW — so if Jensen has a contract — he’ll be doing the show regardless of his family situation.
    He probably won’t direct an episode though. That’s extra time and energy he won’t have with a newborn at home. :)

  • Wright

    Probably 90210

  • Wright

    SPN definitely needs to stay. SPN, TVD and Arrow are the best shows on the CW.

  • Brandy

    @KathleenMary, Nikita hasnt had 0.5 since lastMarch or April, since then 9 0.4,& two 0.3s, &1 0.2 .and Nikita wont see 0.5 again.

  • chris

    CW 2013-2014 Season: The Year of Change!!!!!!

    Screw it why not revamp the whole Monday through Friday Night Lineup here is my so called make believe schedule. (Please note that I do not favor any low rated show this is what I would think makes sense for cw. Also I am making the schedule as if cult and carrie were CW Hits)

    Monday 8 New Show 9 CULT

    Tuesday 8 The Vampire Diaries 9 Supernatural

    Wednesday 8 Arrow 9 New Show

    Thursday 8 Carrie 9 Hart of Dixie

    Friday 8 ANTM 9 Nikita

    **** have 3 shows set for midseason **** (CXL 90210 BATB EMILY OWENS)

    @BILL is there any way that CBS would give The Mentalist to CW since I hear WB owns the show, if this is even a true fact? The Mentalist until this years disasterous move to Sundays behind The good wife, has always been a hit or stable show. Now there are rumors of it being cancelled? I really think moving Mentalist fridays at 8 with Nikita would be awesome.

    If only one of the two shows cult or carrie survive this is the alternate 2013-14 make believe schedule:

    Mon 8 NEW SERIES 9 SUPERNATURAL
    Tues 8 Carrie 9 HOD
    Wed 8 Arrow 9 NEW SERIES
    Thurs 8 TVD 9 NEW SERIES
    Friday 8 Nikita 9 90210 13 eps burnoff (Oct-Jan)/ ANTM (Feb- May )

    **** 2-3 New series for Midseason**** (GONE IS BATB, EMILY OWENS, SERIES FINALE FOR 90210 AND THEN GONE) AND I’M BEING VERY GENEROUS IN MY MAKE BELIEVE SCHEDULE FOR 90210 B/C IF I WERE THE CW PRESIDENT I WOULD PUT A NEW MEANING TO THE PHRASE CHANGE THAT OBAMA USED IN 2008. I’m just saying…. :)

  • Melanie

    @Kathleen Mary Nice. At least Supernatural HAS a fanbase, one with twice as many Nielsen families as Nikita. And yeah, I agree IF Nikita was getting .5 — S4 would be even more of a lock than Bill already thinks it is for syndication — but it isn’t. The season high for Nikita is a .4. Supernatural’s is a 1.0.

  • reedmac

    I had to change my screen name because someone has decided to nab it and say that SPN/90210 and HOD need to go.

    I think all 3 will be renewed.

    SPN, TVD, Arrow deserve to be renewed

    HOD is relatively good performer.

    Nikita deserves to be cancelled but will most likely be renewed for syndication purposes.

    Beauty I would say is 50/50 but I think it’ll fall in the spring and go the way of TSC

    90210 will at least get a final 10-13 episodes.

    Cult and Carrie? no clue

  • Tom

    “Nothing has changed in the New Year yet between the three of the CW shows in the “mediocre middle.”

    That’s right. But, I have to admire the skillful use of the term “Deathmatch” to evoke an image of something that will stir the CW trolls into contributing even more page views to this subject. However, the fact remains that all of the mentioned programs have such poor ratings they’re effectively dead to most viewers even if all aren’t cancelled.

  • rehabber

    I was watching the Cult video and wow, I got goose bumps just from watching that, so seems like a show I will like. Not so much Carrie Diaries, won’t even try that one, the previews were bad. If something has to go I hope it is 90210, it has outlived its storyline. B&B has picked up the last few eps and I would like it to stay around and Hart of Dixie is just a fun series.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “That’s right. But, I have to admire the skillful use of the term “Deathmatch” to evoke an image of something that will stir the CW trolls into contributing even more page views to this subject.”

    Admiration noted. When there’s no news, something must be added to the mix!

  • kateland

    Dont cancel Hart of Dixie! I have to admit that I did NOT expect to fall in love with the show and the characters in the way that I have. It is silly and at times quirky but always good natured and just fun to watch.

    I am EXTREMELY disappointed to find that the Secret Circle has been cancelled, I really got into it it over the holidays when I caught a marathon on SYFY….

    The reality of the situation is that with technology changing (aka a DVR being in most homes) networks need to accept that no matter the target audiences– people are watching shows when its on THEIR time. Not necessarily when the network airs the show each week. Thus, I don’t feel the numbers of people following the shows are as accurate as I have seen elsewhere on this site, where Hart of Dixie falls below 1 million. People ARE watching these shows!! but many (including myself and friends) sit down and watch them when its most convenient. It’s really frustrating getting into a show just to have it be cancelled :(

  • ZmaX

    I think B&B has a slight chance at renewal. If TCD and Cult both fail and are canceled, which is very likely, then that will be a total of 4 cancellations. GG, Emily Owens, TCD, and Cult. Also, ANTM’s next cycle is going to air entirely during the Summer, so that is basically 5 shows off next season’s schedule.

    Mondays:
    8-New Show
    9-Supernatural
    Tuesdays:
    8-Hart of Dixie
    9-New Show/90210(final 13 episode season)
    Wednesdays:
    Arrow
    New Show[Amazon]
    Thursdays:
    8-The Vampire Diaries
    9-New Show
    Fridays
    8-Nikita
    9-Beauty and the Beast

    But there is a good chance that they will just put reruns of a new show after Nikita, Amazon would be a nice fit. (fun fact: Maggie Q actually does the voice of Wonder Woman on Young Justice)

    People were freaking out over Supernatural’s move from Fridays to Wednesdays and that worked out great. I think the same can happen again next season. Thursdays and Wednesdays will do great (Green Arrow followed by Wonder Woman will definitely knock it out of the park on Wed.)By moving SPN to Mondays with a compatible new show, they could fix that night as well. 3 Solid (over a 1.0 average)Nights a week would be a big win for the CW.

  • Edna

    I hope Beauty and the Beast does not get cancelled, it is getting better and better. CW should not put a new show on Thursday at 9pm, it doesn’t stand a chance, they should put a show thats been around a while with a fan following. I saw Hart of Dixie for the first time, not impressed at all. New shows should be given a chance in a new timeslot before being cancelled.

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