CW: New Year, Same Deathmatch Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & '90210'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 8th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Nothing has changed in the New Year yet between the three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) and at least one of them is certain to be canceled.

Will we be able to predict which one it will be? Certainly late season ratings dives might make the difference (hello, The Secret Circle!). But barring one of those, we may be flipping a three sided coin.

The renewal of either CW spring drama (Cult, The Carrie Diaries) would almost certainly mean more cancellations among those three.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • gerry

    i’m pulling for dixie to pull through, even though i don’t watch. i could care less about the rest. i’m curious about how carrie diaries and cult will fare.

  • Bern

    Bye Bye to 90210, Beauty & The Beast, Emily Owens MD
    HOD has a 50/50 chance
    Carrie Diaries – Has a 50/50 chance. Another GG type of program that viewers won’t be interesting in
    Cult – Looks good but in the wrong day and time. Has a 50/50 chance because of that already
    Nikita is back but maybe for a final (short?) season
    Coming back Supernatural, TVD, and Arrow

    My predictions that are coming back Supernatural, TVD, Nikita, Arrow, and HOD. 90210 may recieve a short final season if the other 2 new shows fail.

  • JJA

    Carrie Diaries should do well enough for renewal, albeit for just a partial 13 episode season (which probably will get a back 9). The pilot is getting lots of good buzz, and the Sex & The City connection will get people interested.

    Cult will NOT do well. Like Ringer, it is on the wrong night. I’m also hearing bad things about the pilot.

    So, my predictions are as follows:

    Vampire Diaries, Supernatural, Arrow and Carrie Diaries — renewed

    90210, Nikita — renewed for final season

    Cult, Beauty & The Beast and Hart of Dixie — canceled

    Also, 3 new scripted shows for the fall, AND ANTM will also be renewed for cycle 21.

  • Lainey

    Attention CW- please, for the love of semi-decent television, take 90210 out to the pasture and put it out of it’s misery already. Don’t do a “farewell” season or something ridiculous- this show was a revamp that somehow made it 5 seasons. Consider it a hit for what it was (in it’s first 3 seasons) and move on.

    As for the other 2 shows- I actually think HOD is really great. It’s a cute show, it’s funny, Rachel Bilson is adorable and I honestly could see it going on for many seasons. It’s ratings are steady if nothing else.

    BATB is the show that is truly on the fence for me… it will be interesting to see what happens in May.

  • thesnowleopard

    90210 might make it to a final shortened season just to get a few more episodes to sell on Netflix. But if it does, I bet it will end up shunted to Fridays.

    In terms of breaks, I think I rate Beauty and the Beast slightly over Hart of Dixie. HoD’s been performing relatively evenly, but it’s also on the bubble between season two and syndication three/four, whereas BatB is in its first season. The network could give the latter a second season and then axe it at the end with no pain. If they renew HoD, they almost have to renew it for two more seasons. Is it steady enough for that? I don’t know.

    Of course, the CW could well cancel all three of them. A lot depends on whether it can fund the same number of pilots as last season. And whether either the Carrie Diaries or Cult (or both) does well enough to warrant renewal, or even a full season order next season. Sure, the record for network midseason replacements isn’t good, but they could do well.

    Someone mentioned Grimm as an example of predicting too quickly. Yes, the pilot was horrible, but I was skeptical of the show dying right off the bat because it was a hybrid procedural and those usually do well in the sci-fi/horror genres. And there is a lot of interest out there in underground cult horror series. Look at Marble Hornets. So, if Cult turns out to be any good, there is an audience for it.

    Nikita’s ratings are epically bad. I honestly don’t know if the network will give it a fourth season just for syndication. As the cancellation of The LA Complex has shown, even the CW has its limits. And it seems pretty odd that Nikita has only aired six episodes so far to other CW shows’ nine. Wouldn’t it be smarter to frontload its episodes in the fall, when they’re likely to get higher ratings, than to do loads of Nikita episodes in the spring, when they’re sure to plumb new depths? That sounds like burnoff to me and I think the CW is going to come up with some “solutions” that won’t make the show’s fans very happy.

    @Hadesa
    If the CW chooses to renew the show for a ninth and tenth season, they will have no choice. It is part of their contract and breaking a contract has ugly consequences for one’s career. Either way, Ackles seems very committed to the show, so I’m not sure we’d see much difference in a ninth season from what we’re getting now. All he’d need to do in order to free up a lot of his time early in the season (when his newborn is likely to be most hands-on) is not direct an episode for season nine. Which would be sad, but I’m sure we’d all soldier on. He’s already directed three of them.

    It’s quite possible we’d see a lot less of Sam and Dean together, as that would cut down on shooting time for both Padalecki and Ackles.

    @Kathleen Mary
    Awww, are the mean old fat chicks ignoring your show to death? So sad. Maybe it’s because they have taste.

  • Edward

    The CW really shouldn’t cancel Beauty and the Beauty. I mean its not fair for them to cancel a freshman show, it’s progressing and picking up a hyped up fan base. Giving them a season 2, could have more people watching.

  • Renee

    @kateland

    Personally I don’t think the networks really care if you watch their shows. They only care about the Neilson households who watch the commercials during their shows. That is what they sell and make their money on. So if a show picks up 25 million more viewers online/DVR/on demand…they don’t care. It’s a nice statistic to use as a marketing tool, but it doesn’t make them any money. It’s all about the advertising $$$$.

  • Penny

    90210 will be renewed for a final season

  • Nick

    What the CW should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: The Carrie Diaries/ Meridian Hills (new)
    9: Hart of Dixie

    Tue-
    8: The Hundred (new)
    9: Supernatural

    Wed-
    8: Arrow
    9: Amazon (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Selection (new)

    Fri-
    8: Nikita (full final season)
    9: 90210 (10 episode final season)/ America’s Next Top Model

  • Nick

    I think that the CW will pull a Undercover Boss and hold Top Model back so they can renew 3 of the ones you highlighted. I’m guessing Carrie Diaries, Hart of Dixie, and 90210.

  • Renee

    I know we’re all just voicing our opinions here, we don’t know what the network will do. But I’m really hoping a lot of you are wrong about Beauty & The Beast. It’s my favorite show this year and I really like Nikita and Arrow as well. I even watched the rerun live last night…and I’m a person who will dvr football to skip the commercials! So for me that was a big thing.

  • lisa

    Well 90210′s ratings are lower than Beauty, but because 90210 is older why should it survive, its already reached 100 episodes.

  • thesnowleopard

    @lisa
    Because Netflix and syndication rights are usually more lucrative for an older show than for a new one, so producing a few more episodes of an old show may be worth it. That’s the reason why Gossip Girl got a final ten and why many people here think Nikita will get a fourth season. If they canceled it now, it would be worth much less in syndication than if they forge on to the 88 episode mark.

    It seems unlikely that 90210 will get a full sixth season, should it be renewed. However, that might actually work for the network if either The Carrie Dairies or Cult do well, but the network doesn’t want to give them a full second season.

  • Alan

    Beauty and the Beast will be cancelled. 90210 gets a final season, and Hart of Dixie gets renewed.

  • Tessa

    Ahhh, a new year, same old board. People posting fantasy schedules, moving shows around like furniture (what’s with the fascination to move Supernatural around? Not even one fantasy scheduler leaves it were it is, where it and Arrow can help prop up each other up.) Nikita fans declaring their show best while (inexplicably) bashing SPN. And three shows on the chopping block, each with their own fan excuse bingos.

    Welcome to the CW 2013.

  • Jarrod

    The CW could very well postpone Supernatural season 9 to 2014 and run episodes without breaks to accommodate both actors for a longer summer hiatus. Though that would be fantastic for continuity, it would do (more) damage to The CW.
    As for 90210, I predict a full season pick-up. That may seem like a bold move, but it’s ratings and demo are too inconsistent this season. It’ll depend on how TCD does as a lead-in for it, and that also matters on how TCD does in general. With Cult’s timeslot, I think it’s already spoken for itself. With GG finally gone and BATB most likely on it’s way out, my guess is that Nikita, 90210, HOD, Arrow, SPN and TVD will ALL be renewed for 2013-2014 schedule, thus allowing 5 pilots to be green-lit once again like last year.

  • Jarrod

    Oh, and I guess The CW will renew ANTM. Though I don’t really even count that seeing as how horrible it is to the schedule and what it did as a lead-in for Nikita.

  • NY

    My 2013-2014 Fall Schedule:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – 90210 (13 episodes, final season) / NEW DRAMA
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – Hart of Dixie
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – Supernatural

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Nikita (full and final season)
    9:00 – America’s Next Top Model / Repeats

    Arrow would have higher ratings on Thursday and help a new drama. TVD and Supernatural will work well together. Maybe HOD needs to move to Friday and be replaced on Tuesday by Beauty and the Beast ?

  • NY

    Another question:
    Why The CW doesn’t air sitcoms ?

  • Craig

    keep Hart of Dixie. cancel 90210.

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