CW: New Year, Same Deathmatch Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & '90210'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 8th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Nothing has changed in the New Year yet between the three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) and at least one of them is certain to be canceled.

Will we be able to predict which one it will be? Certainly late season ratings dives might make the difference (hello, The Secret Circle!). But barring one of those, we may be flipping a three sided coin.

The renewal of either CW spring drama (Cult, The Carrie Diaries) would almost certainly mean more cancellations among those three.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Ryann

    If Hart of Dixie gets moved to a friday slot then the ratings will be terrible, then it will still get renewed due to syndication, so that will just annoy fans of other shows who will be like ‘why is HOD getting renewed over my programme with double the ratings’ so moving HOD would be stupid move and its doing just fine where it is.
    HOD should remain on tuesday or monday next season and beauty and the beast should get cancelled

  • JJA

    Hart of Dixie on Friday may be its best bet for survival. Remember, the HOD season 2 premier was a .7, but the ratings quickly fell down to a .5 or so. In other words, it is losing its live audience. HOD does well on iTunes and Hulu, and it may pay itself off in syndication. Thus, sticking HOD on a “burn-off” night may keep it around for another 2 or 3 years.

    If HOD does get renewed, I can see Fridays next year being HOD @ 8, and Nikita @ 9.

  • Laura

    TB&B goodbye!!????

  • Brandy

    Jja, First, Hart manages 0.5_0.6 up against The Voice,Ncis but its steady even in season two.Season one premiered at 0.8 and with the exception of one 0.8_0.9 for 1.5,(season one episode five)season one also averaged 0 5_0.6 just like season two.
    Second, I doubt Nikita will be at 9 pm again with its ratings worse in that time and being moved back to 8.If Hart moves to Fri, Itll be Nikita,HOD.

  • Bern

    By the way Amazon.com is selling both seasons of NIKITA at 24.99 blu-ray and DVD for 19.99. Just a head up for those Nikita fans since this show always gets excluded on TV sales/promotions.

  • Peter Mazzilli

    Well, i really hope and i think ”Beauty and The Beast” has to stay, because it’s getting better and better by each episode, and the CW could accomodate the show as a lead in for new show ”Wunderland” (A procedural/fantasy night) ;)

  • chris

    I know we are all just making our CW “Fantasy Schedules” but why in the hell would anyone put 90210 or hart of dixie as a leadin 8 PM show and not to mention it is a leadin for two new series. VD was a self starter and Arrow was too. I say CW puts a new show behind Arrow, and Place a new series at 8 with supernatural at 9 and a new series either behind vd or 8 on another night. CW should never used hod as a leadin for anyshow. I mean CW used to put gg and 90210 as leadin shows and look how that worked out. CW get your brain back inside your head and make the 2012-14 season a good one.

  • Nick

    Anybody saying 90210 should move to Friday’s next season is out of there mind. The fans that are still watching it, are not housewives. They don’t sit it on Friday nights. I know because I’m a teenager and me and my friends watch it. I know like two adults that watch it. Even if it is for it’s last season, the ratings would be ten times worse than this season.

    90210 has some tough competition this season and it still has decent ratings by CW standards. I’m almost 100% sure it will get a 10/13 ep final season but I wouldn’t be surprised if it got a full one if Cult and TCD fail…and those shows don’t exactly have the odds in their favor. I’d love to see TCD do well but I’m not sure…

  • Mico

    Well Beauty and The Beast won best new tv drama for peoples choice……don’t know if that will effect which way the bear runs….

  • JulieDawn

    @Mico

    Exactly what I came here to say – #Beasties rule and the Peoples Choice Award certainly can’t hurt it. And it’ll give the CW suits something positive to say abt BATB during their time at the TCAs on Sunday.

    Obviously it will still come down to ratings and all that other financial stuff they look at, but the award may have just pushed that bear a little further away!

  • Tom

    The People’s Choice Awards permit anyone to vote for a show as often as they wish. It’s lame. Most “people” have more important things to occupy their time. In he case of B&B, I’d best that a bunch of the votes came from chicks who couldn’t get dates and occupied their lonely Saturday evenings by serially voting.

  • Jordan

    @Tom

    True. VERY true. I think Tom has a point: The same small group of fans who are watching this show are the same ones who probably voted endlessly just to get the show an award.

    Besides, it’s ALWAYS about the numbers. And right now, The Beast is still bombing. TV is business, kids, not just about awards – especially not with silly awards like this one.

    BTW, here are a couple of examples of shows that won PCA awards in previous years but have since been cancelled:

    ** Favorite New TV Comedy, 2011: $#*! My Dad Says
    ** Favorite New TV Comedy, 2008: Samantha Who?
    ** Favorite New TV Drama, 2008: Moonlight

    So, yeah…you’ve got to hope for a lot more to happen, #Beasties. A LOT more.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Well Beauty and The Beast won best new tv drama for peoples choice……don’t know if that will effect which way the bear runs….”

    As many have noted already, it’s completely irrelevant to the future of the show.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Nick
    Since a final shortened season is more likely to be about racking up episodes for Netflix and syndication, and its demos are unlikely to be all that much worse on Fridays than in its present slot, I don’t see why the network would care.

    And they couldn’t care less about you unless you have a Nielsen box, since networks are all about the advertisers not the audience.

    @Jordan and Tom
    While I agree with Bill that its PCA win is unlikely to save Beauty and the Beast, there’s no need for you to get nasty about it. The show is in bad shape because of its demos, not because its audience consists of some misogynistic fantasy stereotype that you cooked up in your heads. The win is still free publicity for the show–and the network. I just think that Bill’s right that it won’t do much good.

    And if you think that the Emmys or the Oscars aren’t as fixed as the PCAs, you are terribly naive. Go read up on them and find out all the shenanigans that go on behind the scenes.

    @Jarrod
    ANTM has already been renewed and is being moved to summers. You don’t have to like the show (I sure don’t), but it still did better on Fridays than Nikita and it’s doubtful ANTM did any damage to Nikita’s ratings that wasn’t happening, already.

  • Jordan

    @thesnowleopard

    Oh, please. I’m not stupid, friend. OF COURSE, most awards shows outside of the PCAs have ‘politics’ involved. It’s very funny that you assume we weren’t aware of it. It’s been that way from time immemorial (oh, Pia Zadora…how I remember you, haha). Still, that doesn’t discount the fact that the PCAs are a lowly awards show – even more so since folks can vote more than once. Therefore, it is possible for a few overzealous fans to make their nominee win if they band together and vote repeatedly.

    And while I can’t speak for Tom, my post is definitely not as nasty/rude as some of the comments I’ve seen left by a few of the so-called #Beastie fans towards the competition that lost against it. The commentary may not be on TVbytheNumbers, mind you, but yes – the nasty #Beasts are out there. So, there’s no point in you lecturing anyone on nastiness or misogynistic behavior. My post was far from being that way. I was only being blunt about the Beast’s chances. At this point, they look extremely dim. Very much so; the numbers are the writing on the wall. And while you may say you agree with Bill, just remember – he was reiterating what was said in aforementioned posts – ours included – except he gave you a condensed answer compared to the frank, wordy reply that was unpalatable to you. Same message but different messengers & style, you see.

  • calob

    when do we even know what new shows are picked up for fall 2013? didn’t Cult get picked up early January of last year?

  • Brandy

    @Calob In mid May.No Cult was picked up in May.
    SnowLeopard, GG with awful ratings didnt move to fri for its final season neither did OTH(with deccent ratings) so I doubt 90210 will move to fri for its final season next season if it gets one.

  • carla

    Um Jordan u are obviously just another bitter BATB hater mad that the WON the PCA after u haters continued to bash the show for either having a handsome beast or being a bitter TSC fan. FACTS are it has higher ratings than HOD and 9O210 and has a big fanbase online which the CW does look at. If it stays steady which it has been doing it will make it to a S2. It winning a PCA does help.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    ” It winning a PCA does help.”

    Just like it helped Lie To Me and $#*! My Dad Says, both 2010 winners that were canceled later that spring.

    The award is meaningless to the future of a show.

    BATB could certainly be renewed for all the reasons that have been discussed endlessly in our predictions, but a PCA award isn’t one of them.

  • Carrie D

    LOL!!! If you want to prove people like Tom and Jordan wrong, then stop talking like little overemotional teenage girls when you post. That hardly makes anyone want to take your show or fans like you seriously.

    (And yes, I’m looking at you, CARLA. ‘U haters’?? You post like you’re texting from your phone while at school. Oy, don’t let your teachers catch you in class! ;D)

    By the way, your so called FACTS do not prove that your Beastie show is any better than 90210 or Hart of Dixie. If you can give a detailed post of how that’s true (especially when this site shows otherwise), then maybe we might believe your juvenile argument.

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