CW: New Year, Same Deathmatch Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & '90210'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 8th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Nothing has changed in the New Year yet between the three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) and at least one of them is certain to be canceled.

Will we be able to predict which one it will be? Certainly late season ratings dives might make the difference (hello, The Secret Circle!). But barring one of those, we may be flipping a three sided coin.

The renewal of either CW spring drama (Cult, The Carrie Diaries) would almost certainly mean more cancellations among those three.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Shaz

    Well, the PCA win can’t hurt BATB ratings and may indirectly help if any publicity from it convinces more people to check the show out (either for the first time or for a reappraisal after dumping it early on). Which is basically the point of ALL award shows from a TV business perspective, no matter how the winners are decided.

    I haven’t seen a fandom for any show that doesn’t have a nasty and/or crazy deluded segment, so BATB is hardly exceptional for that. From what I can tell, BATB’s internet fandom is largely made up of teenagers and young women (hence plenty of time for mass PCA voting and immature online behavior). Plus one of the BATB actors was extremely active on Twitter encouraging fans to vote and revote (one group of 3 fans voted over 9 million times and several others broke the 1 million threshold — that’s out of 475 million total votes for the entire PCA), which I think is the main reason for BATB’s win.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Brandy
    This season, the network needed to move ANTM off Wednesdays to accommodate Arrow’s premiere and Supernatural’s being moved off Fridays. With ANTM being moved to summers, that leaves a hole on Friday and it is perfectly shaped for 90210. Is it a given that the network would move 90210 to Fridays? Nope. But it’s not a given the network will renew 90210, for a short season or otherwise, either.

    @Jordan
    Sorry, but the minute you started ranting about “Beasties” (with a hash tag, no less), you lost all credibility. I don’t know if you’re a disgruntled TSC fan or what, but your anger toward Beauty and the Beast and its fans is far from rational. Making nasty comments about a show’s fans, especially singling out a show’s female fans for invective about their weight or social status, *is* mean and misogynistic. Those things have nothing to do with the show’s success or failure. The Nielsens don’t care and neither does the network. If Beauty and the Beast were doing better in the A18-49s, its chances would be better, too, and that’s it.

    And I’m not your “friend.”

  • thesnowleopard

    @Carrie D
    Perhaps you should take your own advice and stop stereotyping posters you don’t like. The wackiest troll this site has had is, judged by popular opinion here, a guy from Finland. Hardly a teenage girl from the U.S.

  • Jordan

    @thesnowleopard

    (1) I used the ‘#Beasties’ tag because another fan (JulieDawn) used it in a previous post. Otherwise, I wouldn’t have known that’s what this (or your?) fanbase calls itself.

    (2) I still don’t know why you think anything I said is ‘nasty’. I only agreed with Tom on that small point that he made about a small bunch of fans banding together just to win some meaningless award. Whether they’re female and/or teens, who knows and who cares? But eh, it’s pointless to explain. For some odd reason, you’ve now zeroed in on me as being ‘angry’, ‘irrational’, and ‘disgruntled’; you’ve made up your mind to infer A LOT from what I’ve said, regardless of what words I use – which brings me to…

    (3) No, we’re not friends. That was tongue-in-cheek, but I see you missed that, too. Not surprising, now that I’ve read your second reply.

    (4) It took me a few minutes, but now I get it: TSC = The Secret Circle? Heck no, I never watched that show. Haha, yeah…DEFINITELY NOT my kind of thing. Too much of a teen show. In fact, the last CW show that I watched before realizing it was doomed was “Life Unexpected”.

    (5) Finally, I noticed that while you did respond to me and Carrie D, you didn’t even touch that interesting comment left by Shaz above. Frankly, Shaz’s post just proves that a few overzealous fans are trying their best to keep this Beast show alive – and um, yes…from what Shaz noted, it’s evident that, for the most part, they’re young and sometimes immature. (~ points to Carla’s comment as evidence, which you also conveniently ignored ~)

    @Bill: Lie to Me! I practically forgot that show existed. I had to look it up, and it was only when I saw Tim Roth’s face that I remembered, haha.

  • itsamonstermash

    Here’s the short of it: I think Hart of Dixie still has a better chance at renewal than the B&B show. 90210? Uhhh, maybe…yeah still better than B&B.

    @Shaz- holy sheez, are you kidding me?!? 3 fans did that kind of voting? Whoa. Staring at computer & phone screens for all that time…they must’ve had Gollum’s eyes by the end of it all. See, this is what desperation drives crazed fans to do. XD It’s not too surprising to find out that’s what happened, though. I mean, come on…B&B beating contenders like Arrow? Riiiight.

    @Jordan- If I were keeping score, I’d give you the advantage. LOL I think you made a good argument -nothing too mean or angry, IMO- and like this site keeps saying: It’s all about the ratings and the demos, and not the awards. Awards could help with publicity, but for only so long…and then reality sets back in eventually. You remember stuff, too- Pia Zadora? Man, that’s a trip back in time. Bonus points for that. =)

  • lakersupbyten

    Glad to see Beauty win the PCA..It may have given it a 2nd season and 3rd. The show has bested the critics so far. Lo
    l.

  • Carrie D

    TheSnowLeopard, so now you want to take me on, too? Okay then, LMAO.

    For starters, my only advice to Carla and fans just like her was that they should stop acting immaturely if they want to be taken seriously. As for stereotyping, heck no — I never said I’d advise against that. I’m all for it in fandom, LOL! Hey if the shoe fits, then wear it. In this case, Carla wore the overly-emotional-teen shoe well…she should just know that it’ll be laughable if she continues acting out with that stereotypical behavior. “U haters…!” Oy. ;D

    Also, not all of us are “bitter”, “disgruntled” TSC fans, by the way. TSC is a goner & I never gave a rat’s a$$ about it to begin with. No, some just don’t like the Beast show because it’s just not great to them. Hilarious how you, Carla & others assume that hating the Beast equates to being a TSC supporter. Sorry but nope.

    The only thing I’ll do for you is this…I’ll amend one word in my original statement: “If you want to prove people like Tom and Jordan wrong, then stop talking like little overemotional TEENAGERS when you post. That hardly makes anyone want to take your show or fans like you seriously.” Now your special little Finnish troll is covered in there…although based on my original wording, he actually still fits in there, no matter what. :)

  • patty

    I love hart of Dixie and I recorded all the Emily Owens and I really liked it after watching several in a row.

  • Kate

    I love Beauty and the Beast! Can’t wait to see them get renewed, considering how we beasties won that Favorite New TV Drama PCA ;D

  • Dan

    Predictabe CW

    90210 next season will be like Gossip Girl this season = Final Season (2013-2014)

    Beauty and the Beast is like Secret Circle = First season full season flop

    Hart of Dixie = Nikita Second season show that wil get a third season toward syndication

    History repeats itself

  • jody

    keep Beauty and the Beast
    cancle Hart of Dixie or 90210 I really don’t care

  • Laura

    I do not like the show the beauty and the beast, Kristin K. is a bad actress. Cancel B&B was boring!

  • Mary

    Beauty and the Beast won an award? honestly we all know how the voting takes place so it’s a big scam. Delete

  • eny

    beasties,LOL,pathetic

  • sony

    Cancel Beauty and the Beast!!

  • Anthony C.

    I think the CW is going to order alot more shows to series than we think. They have so many high profile projects in development it makes me think they are going full force in revamping the network with fresh new programing all year round. They just announced a TVD spinoff for next season called The Originals with Klaus and Phoebe Tonkin’s character. The backdoor pilot will air later in the season on TVD. Their development plate is so full it just makes me think they have more in store for next season than the small number of shows they usually order. I say bring it on…lol!

  • Frank

    Supernatural haters everywhere…I can see you just hate SPN because its ratings are great for an 8 seasons show.
    Jealousy EVERYWHERE!

  • carla

    Carrie D thanks for proving u are another hater ;) Us #Beasties are on ccloud 9 enjoying our PCA win!

    This is the CW Bill. Ill explain in better terms. If BATB keeps steady in ratings it will be renewed over HOD and 90210 cause its ratings are not only higher, but it won a PCA, and has shown to have a big online fandom. So yes a PCA does matter.

  • Carrie D

    Well, you know what they say, folks ~ in order to communicate, you’ve gotta speak “their language”. :D So, without further ado…Carla, my stereotypical teen-texting lass…this one goes out to you –

    @Carla: Ur welcome, girlie! Anytime! We ‘haterz’ exist just for u! :D U kno u #Beasties need to enjoy this win now cuz u not gonna have much to smile about laterz. ;)
    .
    .
    .
    I’m thinking that’s language you can finally understand. Now, don’t forget to do your homework this weekend. Your mommy & daddy will be pissed if you flunk. I’m sure being a loyal #Beastie voter won’t save you from their wrath, so don’t feed them that excuse. LOL.

    [And oh man...did Carla our little teenybopper just attempt to teach you a thing or two about ratings, Bill??? Aww, well I guess I shouldn't be surprised. ~pats little know-it-all on the head~]

  • Brandy

    @Carla,yes CW will do a promo congratulating Beauty on its pca but it wont matter in the renwal process.Beauty is already at 0.6& 1 0.5,the same as five year old 90210& two year old HoD.Beauty will only be renewed if it does well online or internationalyy, but its US ratings arent good for a freshman show and just like SC ,its retention out of VD isnt good & it will not be renewed over stable rated,closer to syndication HoD nor 90210 which has made CW lots of money and was a hit in early seasons and will very likley get a short final season that CW gives its vetran shows plus a final season gives 90210 more episodes for syndication and Netflix and dvd sales.I will add that im thrilled Beauty won a pca and I love the show too.

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