Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Gossip Girl* | final season complete | 0.61 |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | canceled | 1.00 |
| Nikita (F) |  |
pending |
| 90210 |  |
pending |
| Hart Of Dixie | |
pending |
| Beauty And The Beast | |
pending |
| Supernatural |  |
pending |
| Arrow | |
pending |
| Vampire Diaries | |
pending |
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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.
Nothing has changed in the New Year yet between the three of the CW shows in the "mediocre middle" (90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast) and at least one of them is certain to be canceled.
Will we be able to predict which one it will be? Certainly late season ratings dives might make the difference (hello, The Secret Circle!). But barring one of those, we may be flipping a three sided coin.
The renewal of either CW spring drama (Cult, The Carrie Diaries) would almost certainly mean more cancellations among those three.
How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
Notes:
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- certain to be cancelled by May, 2013 -
- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013 - - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- - certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
OK, re BATB:
1) I’m somewhat biased because I absolutely adore the show. But….
2) I’m also intelligent enough to understand that an intense fan following or a PCA award does not a renewal make on it’s own, it obviously will come down to financials in the end, whether that be simply the ratings or a combination of that with overseas sales, cost of making the series etc.
However – at the CW TCA panel today Pedowitz did say several very positive things about BATB, including “We’re pleased with where it’s going creatively. We believe the show has a long run in front of it.” Of course, yes he’s going to keep talking up the show on the back of the PCA publicity, but his statements have even been more positive than many of us BATB fans expected.
In addition – re the PCA award…the network shut down production for a day and sent Jay Ryan and Kristin Kreuk on a private plane from Toronto to LA and back for the awards show. An extremely last minute decision made literally late the night before.
Sure, I may be eating crow come decision-time, but you don’t incur the very very very high costs of renting a private plane for transcontinental trips in addition to the probably even more expensive shut down of production, for a show the network has given up on. At least not yet.
Mark Pedowitz on renewal odds of various shows:
http://insidetv.ew.com/2013/01/13/cw-renewal-odds/
@AAA
Unless the ratings take a complete nose dive, which I doubt they will and by nose dive I mean 0.3 or worse SPN should get renewed.
Safe bets are TVD, SPN and Arrow…
HOD, 90210, B&TB and Nikita toss ups. Nikita possibly because it’s on Friday!
Pedowitz on HOD: “pleased with dvr/vod performance”
Pedowitz on Beauty:”Based on the passion of the fans,we think we have something here”.CBS congratulated it on having strong international sales.
Here is more from the TCA’s sesion with Mark Pedowits where talks about the current shows and whats to come for the CW.
http://www.deadline.com/2013/01/mark-pedowitz-on-supernatural-90210-future-selection-vampire-diaries-spinoff-wonder-woman-the-aging-cw-audience/
I love the CW but my new cable company does not have it. Please get with ATT Uverse and get your CW going with them. Love Arrow, Hart of Dixie, and Supernatural, like Beauty and the Beast hope they give it a chance to grow.
@Fan
Unless Nikita gets moved to the summer like ANTM next season where it needs to be. The CW does not need to waste its friday next year again with Nikita. They deserve to have a show that can get a 0.6 or higher now and then like ANTM and Supernatural. A 0.4-.3 is not good for a friday because it can’t have a fall to back it up like the other shows on the network. If it was moved to the summer it has a way better chance of it being renewed for maybe a fifth season. If it stays on friday it shows the CW is happy it is in its fourth season so they can cancel it and get their money and hope and pray another show will do better in that slot. Which would not be a surprise since ANTM got 0.4′s and occasional .6′s. Nikita hasn’t got one since almost a year ago.
if they have good pilots…HoD,Cult, Nikita all canceled
they will most likely not move TVD because it does well on thursdays and like the carrie diaries will get renewed its from the same creators as gg ,the oc, and hod wich arent good shows. Tvd creator only plans to do 6 seasons because he plans to end it strong and not be like GG and 90210 and if u think abot it spn should while its still going a bit strong and not be like the shows that have gone on for too long
Monday
Carrie Diaries
new drama
Tuesday
new drama
Supernatural
Wednesday
Arrow
New Drama
Thursday
TVD
TVD spinoff
Friday
ANTM/NIKITA
Hart of Dixie 3,4
The pilots for next season look promising to me. especially Amazon, Embrace, Sleepy Hollow, Tomorrow People, and the TVD spin off. I’m really banking on a lot of shows being cancelled
“I love the CW but my new cable company does not have it.”
Who are these people? They deserve a commendation.
more secret circle
Hey cw I think it would be in your best interest to just renew the secret circle and I’m saying this in the nicest way possible just renew tsc
Shut up and wait for the final judgement.
please renew the secret circle
My schedule for the CW fall 2013
Monday
8-The Carrie Diaries
9-90210 (Final Season)
Tuesday
8-Cult
9-Supernatural (Final Season)
Wednesday
8-Arrow
9-Ringer (bring it back!)
Thursday
8-The Vampire Diaries
9- The Secret Circle (just bring it back already!)
Friday
8- Nikita (Final Season)
9- Hart of Dixie (Final Season)
I hereby state that Beauty & The Beast should get cancelled ’cause it’s not good and sends the wrong messages. Nikita has definitly done it’s course, same with Hart of Dixie (which I don’t understand why it was renewed in the first place). 90210 was acceptable in the beginning, now it’s crap. Supernatural has already eight seasons. Make it stop! The storylines are getting stupid that it enrages me sometimes.
I don’t think Carrie Diaries is a good show, but let the writers try to improve it (they should’ve given Ringer and The Secret Circle a chance).
i totally agree with inigo just please renew the secret circle
We want HART oF DIXIE! It is the only show without violence and murders. The only show when I can just chill out and have fun by watching those beautiful scenes from southern USA. Please, do not cancel it
(( Make at least final season which will conclude the story.
Did anybody read this Article carefully? Cause i’m not so sure some of u did and completely understand it from top to bottom.