Bubble Watch Trading Places Edition: Scandal & Revenge + 'CSI: NY' Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

January 13th, 2013

It's a New Year and although it has been a while since the last Bubble Watch, not much has changed because for most of the absence there were no original episodes of scripted shows.

There are a few minor changes though -- the changes really are pretty minor, if you have a strong reaction to them consider yourself much more emotionally invested than I am!

Nashville was upgraded from on the bubble to likely renewal. I also upgraded Whitney from likely cancellation to on the bubble status. It could move right back down after its next episode. We'll see.  Two and a Half Men was upgraded from likely to certain renewal. From a ratings perspective that's been true all season, really. I held "Men" back a little bit because of the older show/expense issues. But it's pretty clear that both sides (Warner Bros and CBS) will be motivated to bring it back so it's hard to imagine any situation that doesn't result in renewal.

1600 Penn and Deception are on the bubble only because I'm waiting for more data. Also, since the last Bubble Watch How I Met Your Mother and Bones have been renewed.

Through most of the fall, Revenge was "certain to be renewed" while Scandal was "likely to be renewed." I've flipped that around to kick off the year. Which show is "better" in terms of quality is no concern of Bubble Watch (I personally haven't watched either, and I don't have anything against either show), the very recent ratings trend favors Scandal. But if Scandal vs. Revenge is some sort of sporting contest in your mind, that is for your own entertainment purposes only. There is no zero sum game between Revenge and Scandal. Both could be renewed and based on current ratings, both will be renewed. At least currently, which show you like more is as inconsequential as which show has the better ratings.

Edit: This post was drafted prior to the release of CBS's summer schedule. I have to give props to Bill who upon perusing CBS's midseason schedule a while back concluded CSI: NY was more likely to be canceled than renewed. I'd kept it on the bubble, but upon seeing the summer schedule have to conclude Bill had it right a couple of months ago.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

--

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
1600 Penn NBC On The Bubble
Deception NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Nashville ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Holly

    Two and a Half Men was upgraded from likely to certain cancellation.

    typo

  • Thiago

    “Two and a Half Men was upgraded from likely to certain cancellation.”
    I wish… :/

  • Ron

    The CW president said this morning that Beauty and The Beast is on the par as the Secret Circle so it is likely cancellation.

  • Ron

    Here is the link for anybody wondering: https://twitter.com/cadlymack/status/290509980703023104

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Thanks, Holly/Thiago fixed!

    @Ron: I agree, though this time last year THe Secret Circle was still on the bubble ,with its lead-in it’s probably not too soon to downgrade Beauty & the Beast

  • stefan

    Still think Whitney is likely cancellation.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Though this story from Hibberd suggests there’s more love for Beauty & the Beast.
    http://ow.ly/gLVUX

  • Mico

    CSI: NY is still in the on the bubble category box (it does say likely cancellation).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Mico: yes, I noted that I couldn’t re-sort the table presently.

  • Bookworm

    I like that update for Scandal! “Certain Renewal”! I hope and think it is going to stick. It’s very hard to let this show go once you start watching and the audience pretty much does stick with us. I will predict the rating will not be a 2.8 (awesomeness!!) for the rest of the season but I will like the think that the days were we constantly see a 2.0 (average for a 10pm) are far away. Scandal can totally settle in the 2.2-2.4 range right now and ride into that 3rd season!

    The whole Scandal vs. Revenge thing is stupid since neither renewal rides on the others rating though the whole idea/theme of the show might be the same, I do think Scandal is better written and Revenge has been on a slow track downward; so they could use a revamp of the storyline.

    Either way, both are probably returning for a third season!

    Despite the horrible ratings, I still think Happy Endings is on the bubble.

  • Brandy

    @Ron, in the artice you linked Pedowitz said Beauty has more growth potentional than SC and links on spoilertv to another site article have pedowitz saying on twitter”were pleased with where/how Beautys going creativley, we belive it has a long life in it” so on the bubble is right,not likley cancellation if Pedowitz believes it can grow and it well online and internatinaly like ive heard, it could be renewed.

  • THE OLD MAN

    I’m sure the Scandal/Revenge crowd will continue to “sport” their entertainment.

    Now if only TGW would move to the “likely renewal” zone….

  • THE OLD MAN

    @ Bookworm

    Thanks for the backup!

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    I hope I can link to another site (they mention TVBTN a lot & link to you).

    Can someone explain to me why last year it wasn’t clearer that CSI NY would be saved over CSI Miami? CSI Miami’s Syndication Deal is 1mil per where as CSI NY is 1.9mil. Meaning that NY gets 900K more per episode that they can produce so it will be able to get syndicated, right?

    As far as this year, The Mentalist is 2.2mil & The Good Wife still has no syndication deal.

    I’m thinking that unless someone buys TGW for syndication come May, it probably is just too much to try another season.

    Also, CSI NY & TM are getting Top Tier Syndication deals (at least on this list).

    OK, there is a disclaimer at the bottom saying that these deals listed could be limited episode count & I guess that once that number is reached then another deal would have to cover the next few years, or whatever. Which means that maybe the “new” deals for CSI Miami & NY were closer together last year. Maybe even Miami’s deal had expired & didn’t get a “new” deal or one that could cover the cost of producing more episodes.

    Speaking of Syndication deals, I notice that the daily Top 100 cable list gets down to .3 demo & often under 1mil total viewers & yet only a few individual shows are listed. Meaning that most of these syndication deals are getting returns less than .3 demo & 1mil total viewers per episode they air. Are these networks really making money (for the most part) buy paying these deals worth millions per episode even half a mil for comedies? I know that some deals don’t go well & some are a steal, but overall, how much do the less than .3 demo & 1mil viewers get per episode in ad $? I also realize that they air them more than once, heck Seinfeld & Friends are probably reaired like 100 times each by now.

    Link to Syndication per episode deals that “Spot” found:
    http://www.spottedratings.com/2010/11/list-of-cable-syndication-deals.html

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Anna: take any reported syndication deal with a big grain of salt especially when the parent company owns both the studio producing the show and the cable network airing it in syndication as is the case with The Mentalist (Time Warner owns Warner Bros & TNT).

  • Ron

    @Brandy i just read it but one of the three shows have to be cancelled.90210 is likely coming back for a full season or short season and i think being paired with Carrie Diaries it is likely to come back plus it is doing the same as Hart of Dixie(It’s been out longer).Mark doesn’t like cancelling long running shows without giving an conclusion.It’s between Hart of Dixie and Beauty and the Beast getting cancelled if both Cult and Carrie Diaries Succeed.Since Hart of Dixie is in it’s second season and a self starter,It is likely for Beauty and the Beast to get cancelled since it is losing half of Vampire Diaries lead in.The Cw has to have room for new shows next fall so they can’t renew all of them.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    Robert: I don’t think that answer really answers anything I asked. I guess it says the episode dollar count is even more suspect but other than that no.

    As far as CSI NY, does the New Latina Cop & a season more focused on the Cop not Forensic side of the show make it cheaper to renew or allow advertisers to target to the Hispanic Community (like MLB & Males)? The ratings (18-49) aren’t improving so that’s not good news. But maybe there is an advertiser that wants to target to the Hispanic Community & thus adding a regular that’s a (hot/talented) Latina, is getting them some profit? I have no idea if there is an advertiser nor how much the actress costs but adding a regular has to cost something so unless this is a last ditch effort to breathe life into the show, why would they add more cost to the show if it’s not going to be renewed? I’m sure CBS knew come May that one of 3 shows they were going to have to cancel & that’s if only 1 of their newbies is renewed. CSI NY added a series regular. TGW had a Michael J Fox episode. The Mentalist not so much.

    Tell me I’m reading too much into all these tea leaves.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Anna: it means that for Time Warner, whether TNT pays Warner Bros. $1 or $2.2 million per episode, it still adds up to the same thing from Time Warner’s perspective. In the case of the Mentalist the only positive value to Time Warner (and I’m not saying it’s nothing) is the advertising revenue TNT generates and whatever syndication and international money they can get licensing the show to local affiliates and foreign stations.

    As far as the other stuff, yes, you’re reading too much into the tea leaves!

  • Just Desserts

    I love the “Revenge v. Scandal” rivalry. It’s so fetch. :)

  • Brandy

    @Ron, Im just saying Beauty has small chance ,especially if it really does well online and internationally like ive heard it does.Thats a big IF Cult and Carrie Diaries both are hits but dont expect it.I know they have to cancel a couple more shows to make room for new shows next season, but remember theyve already cancelled Emily Owens MD,La Complex and GG so far this season.I agree 90210 will most likley be back for a short final season,VD,Arrow,SPN will be renewed and Nikita might be renewed for a final full season, leaving Beauty,HOD,Cult,Carrie Diaries to battle it out,which I belive HOD will win.CW might not go with five new shows next year if if only one freshman shpw is renewed this year(Arrow( ,like last year(HoD).Hod,Nikita,Beauty,Cult Carrie Carrie DiRies will battle for last two spots on next years schedule.I think if Beauty,Cult,Carrie Diaries,GzG,Emily Owens MD,La Complex cancelled that leaves four spots,three in fall one in midseason (after 90210 finishes its short final season) for new shows.Just because HOD got season two dosent mean automatically itll get season three then four for syndication, it could be still be cancelled but so could Nikita and/or Beauty.

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