It's a New Year and although it has been a while since the last Bubble Watch, not much has changed because for most of the absence there were no original episodes of scripted shows.
There are a few minor changes though -- the changes really are pretty minor, if you have a strong reaction to them consider yourself much more emotionally invested than I am!
Nashville was upgraded from on the bubble to likely renewal. I also upgraded Whitney from likely cancellation to on the bubble status. It could move right back down after its next episode. We'll see. Two and a Half Men was upgraded from likely to certain renewal. From a ratings perspective that's been true all season, really. I held "Men" back a little bit because of the older show/expense issues. But it's pretty clear that both sides (Warner Bros and CBS) will be motivated to bring it back so it's hard to imagine any situation that doesn't result in renewal.
1600 Penn and Deception are on the bubble only because I'm waiting for more data. Also, since the last Bubble Watch How I Met Your Mother and Bones have been renewed.
Through most of the fall, Revenge was "certain to be renewed" while Scandal was "likely to be renewed." I've flipped that around to kick off the year. Which show is "better" in terms of quality is no concern of Bubble Watch (I personally haven't watched either, and I don't have anything against either show), the very recent ratings trend favors Scandal. But if Scandal vs. Revenge is some sort of sporting contest in your mind, that is for your own entertainment purposes only. There is no zero sum game between Revenge and Scandal. Both could be renewed and based on current ratings, both will be renewed. At least currently, which show you like more is as inconsequential as which show has the better ratings.
Edit: This post was drafted prior to the release of CBS's summer schedule. I have to give props to Bill who upon perusing CBS's midseason schedule a while back concluded CSI: NY was more likely to be canceled than renewed. I'd kept it on the bubble, but upon seeing the summer schedule have to conclude Bill had it right a couple of months ago.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
--
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Deception | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final Season |
| Fringe | Fox | Final Season |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
Does anybody wonder how TVD will do on Thursdays at 9:00 and put a new show at 8:00?
Translation of Pedowitz’s message from Robert’s article:
“Yeay Wednesdays! (God, I wished every night was Wednesday.)”
“Beauty and the Beast is performing as badly as the Circle but please love it and make it work because we’re tired of trying to find something for that slot.”
“90210 will get a shortened final season because we want to keep the fans happy to continue selling merchandise in the future.”
“Hart of Dixie disappointed. It should go.”
“Nikita should go too but I’m stuck with it because of syndication.”
@Brandy i totally agree with you.let’s see how 90210 performs with the Carrie Diaries.I think Carrie Diaries is going to do well and help out 90210 like Arrow helps out Supernatural.Remember,90210 only aired 9 out of the 22 episodes so if and when it comes back and starts doing well with the carrie diaries people can say goodbye to Cult,HOD OR B&B
I think Go On should be downgraded.
“Does anybody wonder how TVD will do on Thursdays at 9:00 and put a new show at 8:00?”
Timeslot isn’t the problem. Nikita, Secret Circle, & Beauty & the Beast were all sampled. You can’t force Vampire Diaries fans to watch crappy shows.
@Ron, I hope Carrie Dairies does well but a lot of midseason shows flop and its set in the 80s ,period shows rarley work on broadcast tv, and Cult s premise is out there.Nikita could also still technically be cancelled because it dosent have a syndication deal yet, but itll probably be renewed.
Isn’t it a bit late in the day for The Cleveland Show to still be on the bubble? Animated shows require a lot of lead time. FOX renewed their other animated shows awhile ago.
I Love revenge it deserves another season what they need to do is move it to Mondays at 10pm following neither with the bachlear/Dancing with the stars at 8pm Mondays moves castle to Sunday at 9pm following scandal at 10pm.here is how the shecdule for 2013/14 shall be:
Sunday
8pm once upon a time
9pm Castle~{new day&time}
10pm scandal~{newDay}
Monday
8pm Dancing with the stars/the Bachlear
10pm revenge ~{newDay}
Tuesday
8pm Dancing with the stars result show
9pm ~{new}
10pm ~{new}
Wednesday
8pm the middle
8:30pm subuatory
9pm modern family
9:30pm the neighbours
10pm Nashville
Thursday
8pm~{new}
9pm Greys anatomy ~{final season}
10pm ~{new}
Friday
8pm ~{new}~ /Last men standing
8:30pm ~{new}/Malibu county
9pm shark tank
10pm 20/20
Cancel Csi NY,2&/men,
I am pretty sure that Reven8e will get renewed but where abc schedule next fall should be intresting, Glad to see Nashville in the likely renewel section however i feel its ratings are still borderline it cant affort to drop much further
I’m surprised there wasn’t more changes, especially on the NBC front. I’d change SVU to certain renewal and Go On to likely renewal. The latest ratings suggests there’s going to be a big shakeup in NBC ratings.
Disagreements:
Happy Endings: Bubble
CSI: NY: Bubble
Vegas: Certain Cancelation
Guys with Kids: Bubble
Nikita: Likely Renewal
Beauty and the Beast: Likely Cancelation
Whitney: I think it’s a likely renewal at this point tbh, but it can sit on the bubble for a few more weeks
Nashville: Bubble
The Neighbours: Bubble
Revenge: Certain Renewal
The Middle: Certain Renewal
Hawaii Five-0: Certain Renewal
The New Normal: Bubble
Scandal: Likely Renewal
Go On: Likely Renewal
Some of your distinctions seem random to me. Why would blue bloods be certain but h50 would be likely?
If 2 & a Half Men is hated by millions of people worldwide, why does it get better ratings than all of ABC’s sitcoms (besides Modern Family) & all of NBC’s sitcoms? Is it because people think it’s must see TV (I know it has TBBT as a lead-in, but a high rated lead-in doesn’t always equal high ratings for the lead-out)?
wow even on this chart cbs crushes the competition look at does Certain Renewal shows counts/how much
I wish more people would give Beauty and the Beast a chance. It’s a pretty good show. Better than a lot of shows that’s been on for years.
In what world the middle is a likely renewal ??? It s a certain renewal there is no doubt about it.
CSINY come back next year your going be wrong . I think there going be season 10.
Both Scandal and Revenge will see third seasons. Scandal is retaining a lot of its Greys lead in and ABC won’t dump.Revenge when they can’t find a suitable replacement for Sundays at 9. What do you expect after having DH in the slot for 8 years. ABC will Save both shows. Especially considering they have no hits this year.
Does anybody realize that when NBC has a new sitcom that doesn’t have The Voice as a lead-in, it’ll never get similar ratings to TBBT or Modern Family? Does anybody know why?
The New Normal is likely to be renewed even after a 1.3 last week? And Go On is certain with a 1.5? I knwow it’s been only one week, but I thought I’d see both on the bubble