Bubble Watch Trading Places Edition: Scandal & Revenge + 'CSI: NY' Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

January 13th, 2013

It's a New Year and although it has been a while since the last Bubble Watch, not much has changed because for most of the absence there were no original episodes of scripted shows.

There are a few minor changes though -- the changes really are pretty minor, if you have a strong reaction to them consider yourself much more emotionally invested than I am!

Nashville was upgraded from on the bubble to likely renewal. I also upgraded Whitney from likely cancellation to on the bubble status. It could move right back down after its next episode. We'll see.  Two and a Half Men was upgraded from likely to certain renewal. From a ratings perspective that's been true all season, really. I held "Men" back a little bit because of the older show/expense issues. But it's pretty clear that both sides (Warner Bros and CBS) will be motivated to bring it back so it's hard to imagine any situation that doesn't result in renewal.

1600 Penn and Deception are on the bubble only because I'm waiting for more data. Also, since the last Bubble Watch How I Met Your Mother and Bones have been renewed.

Through most of the fall, Revenge was "certain to be renewed" while Scandal was "likely to be renewed." I've flipped that around to kick off the year. Which show is "better" in terms of quality is no concern of Bubble Watch (I personally haven't watched either, and I don't have anything against either show), the very recent ratings trend favors Scandal. But if Scandal vs. Revenge is some sort of sporting contest in your mind, that is for your own entertainment purposes only. There is no zero sum game between Revenge and Scandal. Both could be renewed and based on current ratings, both will be renewed. At least currently, which show you like more is as inconsequential as which show has the better ratings.

Edit: This post was drafted prior to the release of CBS's summer schedule. I have to give props to Bill who upon perusing CBS's midseason schedule a while back concluded CSI: NY was more likely to be canceled than renewed. I'd kept it on the bubble, but upon seeing the summer schedule have to conclude Bill had it right a couple of months ago.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

--

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
1600 Penn NBC On The Bubble
Deception NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Nashville ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • TVMAN

    Hoping the best for Nashville. While its not an amazing show, I still like it. I bet there kinda disappointed in ratings. It got a lot of hype and promotion.

  • Dan

    To all those thinking that New Normal shouldnt be likely to be renewed, keep in mind Comedy wise NBC is losing veterans The Office and 30 Rock and comedies Whitney, Guys With Kids, and Go On and Parks and Rec are certain renewals for next season so why would NBC let go of The New Normal if its holding on to a good chunk of it Go On lead in.

    NBC will stick with The New Normal next season guaranteed. Their other comedies are performing like garbage.

  • Nickjaro

    I personally think that CSI: NY will get renewed for a tenth season, but it will also be announced as the last one. In that way the series ends after 10 season (just like Miami) and gets a proper farewell. This is the correct thing to do and I hope CBS does it.

  • Chicc_o

    I think Revenge will not be Cancelled , if Scandal stablize @3 by the end of the season ,ABC can move it to Sunday @9 and move revenge back to wed. Night @10 or leave it after scandal & launch a new hit after grey,s

  • Dan

    I meant to say in my last post that Guys With Kids, Whitney and Up All Night are likely to be axed while Go on and Parks and Rec are certain renewals. That makes more sense.

  • Ultima

    @Austin Lauran
    Does anybody realize that when NBC has a new sitcom that doesn’t have The Voice as a lead-in, it’ll never get similar ratings to TBBT or Modern Family?

    “Never.” Seriously? As recently as two years ago (before Carell left), The Office was pulling huge sitcom ratings for NBC.

    If 2 & a Half Men is hated by millions of people worldwide, why does it get better ratings than all of ABC’s sitcoms (besides Modern Family) & all of NBC’s sitcoms?

    It’s irrelevant if people who don’t watch the show hate it or are merely apathetic. What matters is the small section of the population who actually watches it.

  • Ultima

    @Petar
    I have a big question – why all netwooks suddenly go to the summer with so many scripted shows? And from all i mean all networs? CBS even will try serialized drama. What we miss here? What networks think or know that we didn’t? TV by the numbers any idea?

    Well, in CBS’ case, they got crushed in the ratings last year by only running repeats and Big Brother. Since they are unable to launch successful reality shows (only one in the past 11 years), scripted is all that is left! ;)

    Most of the summer scripted stuff is Canadian or at least cheaper than the in-season stuff. The goal is to provide original scripted shows to act as an alternative to repeats and reality.

  • Ultima

    @Austin Lauran
    Should 2 & a Half Men could end its season early in March/April so that the new midseason sitcom that’s not on the schedule could after TBBT? I don’t think anyone has thought of that idea.

    I think the CBS thought process for when to schedule Friend Me probably is going something like this…

    “How about Saturdays?”

    “How about the summer?”

    “Wait! How about Saturday during the summer!” :)

  • Ultima

    @Chicc_o
    I think Revenge will not be Cancelled , if Scandal stablize @3 by the end of the season ,ABC can move it to Sunday @9 and move revenge back to wed.

    Both shows will be renewed and I think it will be very unlikely that ABC moves either one.

    If Nashville is renewed, I expect ABC to move it to another night (probably Sunday at 10pm) in order to free up its timeslot.

  • mert uzun

    I think CSI: NY will get renewed for a final season.They suddenly canceled CSI Miami, it was so annoying for 10 year show.

  • Oliver

    @Dan

    NBC will stick with The New Normal next season guaranteed. Their other comedies are performing like garbage.

    The New Normal was NBC’s second lowest rated show last week (after Rock Center), equal with Guys With Kids.

  • Melissa

    @Nick

    Erm, they both got 1.6?s this past Friday.

    Yes, but the finals are not out for Friday yet.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @Anna Bones Clarkwood

    Well let’s see:

    NBC
    THE VOICE well in the summer. First cycle was sep-dec this mean that the voice will end in july.

    Save me – comedy

    Hannibal – drama

    The camp drama.

    Alos AGT

    CBS

    Under the Dome drama

    The Great British Bake Off

    Unforgettable drama

    BB

    Friend me comedy

    fox
    one comedy

    abc
    drama and comedy

    The simple math is that only for now we have every single network with at least hour more scripted shows for summer. FOR NOW.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @I think the CBS thought process for when to schedule Friend Me probably is going something like this…

    “How about Saturdays?”

    “How about the summer?”

    “Wait! How about Saturday during the summer!”

    That was funny. AT least they can pair it with partners. But my question is this – why networks greenlight shows that they know will collapse and even don’t want to put them in the air? I mean if they don’t have good shows they won’t greenlight them. Its simle or is not?

  • Petar Ivanov

    for cbs and partners too.

  • Bad Wolf

    @Dan

    “Plus CW has never cancelled a drama after 3 seasons.”

    Wrong : they cancelled Veronica Mars after 3 seasons in 2007.

  • Bad Wolf

    @Nickjaro

    Correct me if I’m wrong about CSI:NY, but weren’t the seasons 7 & 8 finales intended to be series finales ? If that’s the case, seasons 8 & 9 didn’t need to happen. Plus, if the writers also plan this season finale as a series finale, I don’t see the need to announce a 10th and final season either. Miami’s 10th season wasn’t intended to be the final one, but if you think it still got a proper farewell, it means that NY can have its proper farewell this season too.

  • Dan

    @Bad Wolf – Veronica Mars wasn’t on The CW for 3 seasons, it was a UPN import so it doesn’t count under the rule. The CW hasnt cancelled one of their original dramas after 3 years. And thats back when networks didn;t just renew shows because of Syndication. Also that was back when The CW’s shows werent as horribly low rated as they are now.

    @Oliver – It doesn’t matter about last weeks ratings, when The Voice returns and new Go On and The New Normal airs after it, both comedies will perform a lot better. Keep in mind the networks are cutting the Tuesday comedies some slack because all are performing crappy against each other.

  • Dan

    @Bad Wolf – You are correct both Season 7 and Season 8 were intended to work as finales in hopes that the show would still get renewed. In May 2011, CSI NY was barely renewed over Criminal Minds Suspect Behavior but CSI NY has syndication going for it. Last season CBS chose NY over Miami because it was younger and Fridays were working better than sundays. So while CSI Miami stupidly didn’t create a final episode (because CBS never announces final seasons for their shows) CSI NY has learned from its past and knows once again that its on the bubble and this time looks like the end for the second CSI spinoff. I know that CSI NY will have a third crafty finale for the series.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I like the Highlander picture! “There can be only one!” LOL If that were true, I’d certainly hope Revenge would be the “One”.

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