Bubble Watch Trading Places Edition: Scandal & Revenge + 'CSI: NY' Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

January 13th, 2013

It's a New Year and although it has been a while since the last Bubble Watch, not much has changed because for most of the absence there were no original episodes of scripted shows.

There are a few minor changes though -- the changes really are pretty minor, if you have a strong reaction to them consider yourself much more emotionally invested than I am!

Nashville was upgraded from on the bubble to likely renewal. I also upgraded Whitney from likely cancellation to on the bubble status. It could move right back down after its next episode. We'll see.  Two and a Half Men was upgraded from likely to certain renewal. From a ratings perspective that's been true all season, really. I held "Men" back a little bit because of the older show/expense issues. But it's pretty clear that both sides (Warner Bros and CBS) will be motivated to bring it back so it's hard to imagine any situation that doesn't result in renewal.

1600 Penn and Deception are on the bubble only because I'm waiting for more data. Also, since the last Bubble Watch How I Met Your Mother and Bones have been renewed.

Through most of the fall, Revenge was "certain to be renewed" while Scandal was "likely to be renewed." I've flipped that around to kick off the year. Which show is "better" in terms of quality is no concern of Bubble Watch (I personally haven't watched either, and I don't have anything against either show), the very recent ratings trend favors Scandal. But if Scandal vs. Revenge is some sort of sporting contest in your mind, that is for your own entertainment purposes only. There is no zero sum game between Revenge and Scandal. Both could be renewed and based on current ratings, both will be renewed. At least currently, which show you like more is as inconsequential as which show has the better ratings.

Edit: This post was drafted prior to the release of CBS's summer schedule. I have to give props to Bill who upon perusing CBS's midseason schedule a while back concluded CSI: NY was more likely to be canceled than renewed. I'd kept it on the bubble, but upon seeing the summer schedule have to conclude Bill had it right a couple of months ago.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

--

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
1600 Penn NBC On The Bubble
Deception NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Nashville ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
The New Normal NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Go On NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • TV Addict

    This is a sad day for Revenge fans everywhere. Espcially because its ratings dipped even more yesterday.

  • NBC Buff

    I feel that The New Normal, Go On, Parks & Rec, 1600 Penn, and Guys with Kids should all be on the bubble. They’re all getting about the same ratings, so it’ll be kinda hard to distinguish between them until The Voice and American Idol start. Meaning, Go On and The New Normal will go up, and Community and Parks and Rec will go down. But since the latter two are veteran shows, they might have a slight edge, even with crappy ratings.

  • Margot Green

    I do not like the show the beauty and the beast, Kristin K. is a bad actress. Cancel!!!

  • Brandy

    RSH, They could cancel Nikita because even CW has thier limits and theres no deal yet.If the ratings fall futher in the second half of the season,CW could realize theve done all they can for Nikita(being a leadin,being a leadout,move back to 8, two more seasons than it shouldve gotten based on ratings espcially seasly lucky for season three,)but its lost most of its audience from the first season & realize nothings working and call it a day.Unless, youre a show in the top four on your network ,youre not safe and anything can happen.Even though Pedowitz likes Nikita, he admits its not doing well.I dont think theres a written contract saying if you renew a show for a third full season you must renew it for a full fourth for syndication or youll be fired,jailed ect.No CW shows besides VD,Arrow ,SPN are 100% safe for next season though 90210 might as well be on that list too given Pedowitzs history of short final seasons for vetran shows.I doubt CW even knows if they will 100% sure get a deal for Nikita. Try as he might and as much as he likes Nikita, Pedowitz may not be able to get a deal for Nikita.

  • Dan

    @Austin Lauran – Two and a Half Men wouldn’t be able to end early anyway, with episode 14-17 scheduled January 31-February 21 and 18 & 19 on March 7 and 14. With Basketball coming into play in late March, Men still has 5 episodes scheduled to air from April 18-May 16. With Big Bang, Men, M&M, HIMYM, and 2BG all having full seasons as well as Rules 13 episodes airing through May, there is no room for Friend Me on either night. THe show is likely to air Saturdays at 8 this summer.

  • Jim

    What if ALL the current scripted network TV shows with stand-alone episodes and no continuing story arcs whatsoever were cancelled? What would happen then?

  • Nick

    @Jim

    What if ALL the current scripted network TV shows with stand-alone episodes and no continuing story arcs whatsoever were cancelled? What would happen then?

    Nothing, because no shows like that exist anymore. All shows have some continuing story arcs.

  • STEVEN

    I have always been a fan of Csi Miami and Ny will be sad to see Ny go :( but i guess its time that they have had a good run. i love blue bloods but i dont understand there demo and views in million are almost the same? how come its certain renew and csi ny certain cancel ??? i get a bit confused with that though ???

  • Hmm

    @ Steven

    Next season Blue Bloods will hit 88 episodes, meaning it will be avialble for syndication making the studio money.

  • Glue

    @Just Desserts

    It won’t catch on! (Fetch) :P

    Look, Revenge hasn’t went down creatively. Its still amazing!

  • martha

    :) I only care about POI … so I’m very happy.

  • STEVEN

    thx HMM i kinda read now that info from the renew cancel index .. makes more sense at least haha

  • BT

    HIMYM was not renewed. Those were just rumors,

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Brandy: “RSH, They could cancel Nikita because even CW has thier limits and theres no deal yet.”

    We don’t know that about the deal. My guess is WB made a deal for two full seasons of Nikita last spring. It would make sense to lock it in to get to syndication. The CW in turn would want a deal that safeguards it against loss of ad revenue in case Nikita would dip further in seasons three and four.

    “If the ratings fall futher in the second half of the season,CW could realize theve done all they can for Nikita”

    But they aren’t doing ANYTHING for Nikita. They’ve probably bought the show from WB based on the figures they had in last spring and the deal WB brought to the table as well as any concerns they had about further dips in season three and four.

    “Unless, youre a show in the top four on your network ,youre not safe and anything can happen.”

    That’s just incorrect. What matters is ratings, not some arbitrary cutoff number.

    “Even though Pedowitz likes Nikita, he admits its not doing well.”

    And it wasn’t doing well last year. Nonetheless he renewed it – because of the deal he got from WB. There isn’t any other possible explanation – and that explanation stands for next season as well. There’s no point in the CW buying the show for season three with lousy ratings and then NOT buying it for season four. The entire point is that obviously WB has sold the show at rock bottom rates to the CW with the intent of getting to syndication. That overrides all other considerations.

    “I dont think theres a written contract saying if you renew a show for a third full season you must renew it for a full fourth for syndication or youll be fired,jailed ect.”

    That’s just ridiculous. You can certainly have a contract that sells a show for two years and imposes financial penalties for reneging.

    “I doubt CW even knows if they will 100% sure get a deal for Nikita.”

    It’s not the CW getting a syndication deal, it’s WB. The CW has nothing to do with that. The CW’s only concern is whether the money they’re paying WB is low enough to offset the loss of ad revenue resulting from Nikita’s low rating. And since Nikita is already on Friday, the lowest ad night of the week, my guess is the deal WB offered the CW is good enough – because otherwise Nikita wouldn’t have gotten a third season.

    WB’s sole interest is in getting Nikita into syndication in Asia and elsewhere where Maggie Q is a major draw. And apparently they’re prepared to low ball the show to the CW to do this. Since they were successful in doing so for season three, I see no reason to believe they can’t do it for season four. The difference in ratings between season two and season three aren’t that huge, given how low the ratings are in real numbers. So the CW can’t be that concerned about any further dips. If they’re getting the show almost for free, it will only matter to them if in fact they have something else they can put on Friday nights that would make more money to them.

    And by definition, they would have brought that up in negotiations with WB in the first place. So the mere fact that Nikita got a third season pretty much answers that question for season four as well.

    Nikita will get a fourth season on the CW.

  • Patrick G.

    This headline is very misleading. It implies that “Scandal + Revenge” are lumped into the likely cancellation category with “CSI: NY.” When I read this, that’s how I interpreted it until I came and read the article. I was thinking “that cannot be correct,” and sure enough, it’s not. Fix the headline to be more clear!

  • SweetD

    I would put Guys with Kids over The New Normal for renewal, same with Whitney.

  • Brandy

    RSH,if season four is so certain, why didnt they renew it for two seasons_three and four _when they renewed it last May?Example Big Bang Theory was renewed for seasons five,six and seven when it was renewed at end of season four.Or,why isnt ever given a early renewal if its 100% certain tobe renewed?Its always a bubble show,renewed at the last minute.Yes, there could be a contract selling/renewing it for two season with financial penalties for reniging but as I said,there may not be too and we dont know if there is or isnt and unless Mark will be jailed,firef,exacuted or something for renewing it for season three then cancelling before syndication, he absolutley dosent HAVE to renew his networks lowest rated show.There is a point where CW will say”We love Nikita but its ratings are too low too continue”.So its possible if its ratings fall more in the second half of the season that that will be it.If Nikita already had a deal(like Mike &Molly,Blue Bloods,2 Broke Girls,Hawaii 5_0) ,hed be penalized for cancelling before 88 episodes but if he cant get a deal for Nikita by May, he could cancel it with no penaltu.My point about being a Top Four Show on The Network is that on CW only VD,Arrow,SPN are 100% certain to be renewed,all the others ,Nikita included, are bubble shows that could get cancelled,even 90210 despite Marks respect for giving vetran shows a final season.Also,Im sure Marks noticed how Nikitas lost 90% or more of its audience from first season already and thats not a good thing_ noones watching now and noone will watch in syndication.Look at how tough it was to get GG syndicatied_GG did better internationally(& more than small area of the worldtoo,unlike Nikita)& did better dvr numbers,won tons of Teens Choice,Peoples Choice and others Awards,and ratings wise was a hit in its early seasons,whereas even doing 0.9in season one made Nikita lowest rated show renewed then(CW average was much higher then).If GG had a hard time getting syndicated,what do you think that says for Nikitas chances?Id say not good.Nikita had one deccent rated season then crashed hard and fast.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Brandy: “RSH,if season four is so certain, why didnt they renew it for two seasons_three and four _when they renewed it last May?”

    Maybe they did and we just haven’t been told. Since the show is so ratings low, it’s quite possible the CW didn’t want to advertise the fact that the only reason the show is on the air is because they got it cheap.

    “there may not be too and we dont know if there is or isnt”

    Again, since there is no other explanation for its renewal for season three, we have to assume the same circumstances apply to season four. They may not, of course, anything is possible. No one is saying it’s impossible that the CW will refuse to run the show for another season regardless of what deal WB offers them. But the odds are very much in favor.

    “There is a point where CW will say”We love Nikita but its ratings are too low too continue””

    And that point was last season.

    “If Nikita already had a deal(like Mike &Molly,Blue Bloods,2 Broke Girls,Hawaii 5_0) ,hed be penalized for cancelling before 88 episodes but if he cant get a deal for Nikita by May, he could cancel it with no penaltu.”

    Which would make no sense for WB. Agreeing to offer the show for one season with no guarantee it would get to syndication would be pointless for WB. So they virtually had to have offered the deal for two seasons, and lowered the deal precisely because the ratings would be lower in both seasons three and four – probably unacceptably low by even CW standards.

    And therefore the CW almost certainly has agreed to that deal already.

    As I say, almost anything is possible. But the odds are that it’s a done deal for two more seasons.

    “Also,Im sure Marks noticed how Nikitas lost 90% or more of its audience from first season already”

    Which, again, was already a known fact last season when it was renewed. So that point is again irrelevant.

    “no one will watch in syndication”

    That’s not necessarily true. The point of syndication is obviously OVERSEAS syndication, not locally. Maggie Q is a huge star in Asia and perhaps elsewhere. WB may well think the Asian market alone will be profitable – or at least enable them to recoup their costs sufficiently – to make it worthwhile to produce the show for 88 episodes.

    “Look at how tough it was to get GG syndicatied_GG did better internationally(& more than small area of the worldtoo,unlike Nikita)”

    I’m unaware of the figures on that, and I suspect you are, too. Also, the two shows can’t be compared in any respect.

    “did better dvr numbers”

    Irrelevant, as we all know here.

    “won tons of Teens Choice,Peoples Choice and others Awards”

    Irrelevant, as we all know here.

    “If GG had a hard time getting syndicated,what do you think that says for Nikitas chances?”

    It says absolutely nothing since the two shows are completely different.

    You’re flailing for reasons to explain why Nikita should not have been renewed for a third season and therefore shouldn’t be renewed for a fourth season.

    Except it was renewed for a third season, and therefore is likely to be renewed for a fourth season.

    Deal.

  • Barbie

    Pessimists. I trust the power of CSI:NY as CBS’s greatest survivor! <3

  • Just Desserts

    The New Normal suckssss!!!!!!!! :)

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