ABC: 'Scandal' Now Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 :oops: 0.49
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.57
Private Practice canceled 0.57
Last Resort canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.68
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.76
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.99
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.10
Nashville :) :) :) :) 1.10
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.25
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.54
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.67
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.45

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With the strong finish to its Fall ratings and its spring ratings start, ABC's Scandal has moved into the "certain to be renewed" range. While Robert beat me to that prediction, he moved Revenge down a notch. I'm not ready to do that. Even Revenge's season low 2.0 rating on Sunday night was only a tenth below my ABC scripted average for the week. After five years of running this site, the intramural warfare in our comments between Revenge & Scandal fans doesn't surprise me. All I can say is, bring your friends!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Max Vrany

    2.45 for Modern Family

  • Max

    I love revenge

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Damn, looks like 4 of my 7 ABC shows won’t make it to next season. Hopefully Happy Endings can pull a “Cougar Town”.

  • tommy

    Go Scandal!!!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Damn, looks like 4 of my 7 ABC shows won’t make it to next season. “

    If 2 of those are the Friday sitcoms, I wouldn’t give up yet. Their prospects continue to improve.

  • AA

    Am I the only one who thinks that Last Man Standing is a certain renewel based on possible syndication dollars? Tim Allen.

  • Dan

    See ABC was patient with Scandal and it paid off, like Private Practice in its second season, its holding on to Grey’s very well.

    To all the people who think Revenge VS. Scandal. Thats the dumbest thing I’ve heard on this site for a while. While Revenge is understadibily down A) Its not doing horribly enough to warrant cancellation and B) ABC has patience with it because its in a slot that previously occupied a high rated show for 8 years Desperate Housewives. Its like when The Office ends in May, NBC will have to air a replacement Thursdays at 9 likely Go ON and whatever airs in that slot will liekly do worse than Office but still OK.

    Revenge, Scandal and Once Upon a Time will all get third seasons, and it will be the first time in a while that all dramas that got a second season, also got a third. The only dramas in the past 5 years to get third seasons is Private Practice, Castle and Body of Proof. All other shows were one and done or V.

    Dramas Grey’s Anatomy, Castle, Revenge, Once Upon a Time and Scandal as well as comedies Modern Family, The Middle and Suburgatory will survive into 2013-2014.

    Nashville, The Neighbors, Body of Proof, Last Man Standing, and Malibu Country could go either way.

    Last Resort, 666 Park Avenue, Private Practice and Apartment 23 are dead, and the only hope for Happy Endings is a TBS pick up.

  • TV#1

    A possible Fall 2013 ABC schedule could be…

    Sun:
    Once Upon a Time
    *New Drama*
    Revenge

    Mon:
    DWTS
    Nashville

    Tue:
    DWTS results
    Castle
    Body of Proof

    Wed:
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    *New Comedy*
    *S.H.I.E.L.D*

    Thur:
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal
    *New Drama*

    Fri:
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country
    Shark Tank
    20/20

  • killertv

    @ AA –

    Last Man Standing is a Fox studio show, so ABC has no interest in the possible syndication money. However, they do have an interest in Modern Family and I’m not sure if sometimes negotiations involving one show might begin to involve another when the same studio has multiple shows on one network.

    But I hope the Friday comedies get renewed! If I were a betting man, I think the chances are better than not.

  • Alex

    To think The Neighbors will be renewed over Happy Endings makes me lose faith in America.

  • Nik

    Yasssssss for Scandal!

  • Jeff R.

    If HE fans want TBS to pick it up, they’d better start watching CT. They’re not going to save another show if CT doesn’t seen an significant uptick over the next few weeks.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “See ABC was patient with Scandal and it paid off”

    It really didn’t require much “patience”. Scandal was never terribly rated. I don’t think I ever had it below a “toss up”.

    Networks keep “toss up” shows on their air all the time. That’s why they’re toss ups!

  • Al

    Another dream ABC’s fall schedule:

    Sun:
    8pm – Once Upon a Time
    9pm – New family sitcom like as pilot starring Jane Fonda
    9.30pm – New sitcom
    10pm – Revenge

    Mon:
    8-10pm – DWTS
    10pm – Castle or new drama

    Tue:
    8pm – Shark Tank
    9pm – S.H.I.E.L.D
    10pm – Castle or new drama

    Wed:
    8pm – The Middle
    8.30pm – Suburgatory
    9pm – Modern Family
    9.30pm – New sitcom or How to Live with Your Parents
    10pm – New drama or DWTS results

    Thur:
    8.pm – Grey’s Anatomy
    9.pm – Nashville
    10pm – Scandal

    Fri:
    8pm – Last Man Standing
    8.30pm – Malibu Country
    9pm – DWTS results
    10pm – 20/20

  • Nik

    “After five years of running this site, the intramural warfare in our comments between Revenge & Scandal fans doesn’t surprise me.”

    Why doesn’t it surprise you? The whole thing is nonsensical to me. I watch both shows (though admittedly, I’m not as much into Revenge now because the show has become too unwieldy with the whole Initiative stuff. It doesn’t make sense), and so do many others I imagine.

    It’s not a zero sum game between the two. ABC wants both shows to succeed.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Why doesn’t it surprise you?”

    Because I’ve seen the same thing with other fan groups, countless times.

    “It’s not a zero sum game between the two. ABC wants both shows to succeed.”

    I think the fact that it’s not a zero sum game between the two is pretty obvious *now*, but when they began it wasn’t clear at all. Factor in a bit of crazy, and it’s intramural warfare.

    Remember, the battle between shows on the same network (including new pilots) is exactly a zero sum game. That’s why our prediction process works. ABC has 22 hours to program. Some programs must die, so that others may live.

  • Fred

    Revenge has so much potential to become great again. The groundwork is there, but the focus is off.
    While most eps this season are watchable, they aren’t compelling.
    Too much focus on uninteresting characters and plots.

    The degrading quality began after the winter break last season. It only got worse since.

    Ironically the faux Amanda (real Emily) is the most improved character on the show. Last season I wanted her killed off, this season I’m loving her.

    The Grayson’s, the fake faux Emily (real Amanda), Nolan . the Stowaway Bar plot are all boring.
    The new additions (Initiative, Nolans employees/love interests) are UNWATCHABLE.

    ABC will still renew the modestly rated Revenge for a third season. But will demand major changes.

  • CenterGravity

    Cancel Don’t Trust The B, Happy Endings, and Nashville, renew the rest.

  • Overdamoon

    ITA, Fred. I will add that they need to make Nolan a major player again.

    Would hate to see it gets shuffled to a worse slot. Noooo to 10pm. :(

  • Bob

    Revenge just needs to get back to basics. Emily screwing people’s lives. That was so much fun. I guess last week she screwed up someone’s life but it wasn’t as exciting as when she did that the first Season. Most shows go through a sophmore slump and it appears that Revenge is no different. Perhaps next season they will come back ready to go with a renewed energy.

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