CBS: With Its Low Ratings, Why Is 'Blue Bloods' Certain To Be Renewed?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.50
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.64
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.87
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.51
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.17
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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With Vegas in the headline last week, and no other changes this week, or likely any week, until Golden Boy premieres in more than a month, I figured I'd focus, once again on a question that gets asked at least a few times each week on our comments.

With such low ratings, why is Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"?

CBS is a well oiled money printing syndication machine, and has shown that it will sacrifice low current ratings (and ad revenue) for the  bounty (or even the potential bounty, hello The Good Wife!) that the syndication gods provide I christened a new rule: If a CBS produced & aired scripted show reaches a third season it is certain to receive a fourth. That fourth season typically ensures at least the minimum number of episodes (~88) needed for stripped syndication.

That's why Blue Bloods has been "certain to be renewed" since the very start of the season. This is its third season, and it must see a fourth to reach 88 episodes.

That's also why Hawaii Five-0 was "certain to be renewed", but after a very slow ratings start, it finished the Fall reasonably well for a 10pm show, so it doesn't provoke the same level of questioning.

Note to the nitpicky commenters, although its just about as certain as it gets, How I Met Your Mother has not yet been officially renewed.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Max Vrany

    2.17 for Big Bang. That’ll go down next week when the ratings for the “pending” shows come in. All of them are above average except maybe Five-0.

  • Latrell

    People are going to watch Blue Bloods in syndication?

  • Holly

    @Latrell,

    Just as likely, if not more, than people watching The Good Wife in syndication.

  • Dan

    Still not sure why Good Wife is a hard sell for syndication but if CBS can get a deal for syndication, the show will get a fifth season.

  • Mon

    It seems no major cable network would be interested with Blue Bloods. USA is doing really well with SVU and NCIS. NCIS: LA Modern Family are coming up next to its line-up. TNT looks also full with Castle, Mentalist and its newest, most expensive acquisition Hawaii Five. The other cable companies I didn’t mentio might be more interested in Person of Interest. Heck, If I were a cable company I would be more interested in bidding for POI and keeping an eye on Elementary ’cause those two are getting hot. For me Blue Bloods looks like a 4-season show.

  • Holly

    @Dan,

    Still not sure why Good Wife is a hard sell for syndication

    It’s serialized and low rated…where’s the confusion?

  • DenverDean

    Pretty sad that Vegas has almost same ratings as CSI:NY and BB airing on Tuesday and with huge lead-in. I’d give it a one face, not two. It is certain to be cancelled. With CSI:NY, I have no idea why CBS bothered to do a cross-over, if they were going to trim down order from 18 to 17 and pretty much cancel it. I just don’t see GB and TJ doing better than UB and NY. BB is going to take a hit this spring.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Still not sure why Good Wife is a hard sell for syndication”

    I’m guessing “low rated” + “serialized”.

    Something like that probably fits on Netflix, but I doubt that Netflix pays the kind of money that would give CBS a good return at this point.

    Edit: Holly’s typing speed >> mine.

  • Mon

    But I’m not saying CBS won’t be able to sell Blue Bloods ever. Somehow, some network will buy it maybe for a low price. I just think networks should invest their money wisely on hot shows like POI.

  • Bitter Ringer Fan

    HIMYM has been renewed since december!!!

  • Michael

    Could’t we get rid of Blue Bloods and replace it with a Jesse Stone series. The movies have always done good numbers so why not give it a series shot?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Could’t we get rid of Blue Bloods and replace it with a Jesse Stone series. The movies have always done good numbers so why not give it a series shot?”

    The same reason why there will be no more Jesse Stone movies on CBS. The ratings were *terrible*.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “HIMYM has been renewed since december!!!”

    Wrong!

    Series actors have had contracts extended, but that does not equal renewal!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “But I’m not saying CBS won’t be able to sell Blue Bloods ever. Somehow, some network will buy it maybe for a low price. I just think networks should invest their money wisely on hot shows like POI.”

    Although I hesitate to step into the crazy pit that is POI fan commenting, isn’t that exactly what CBS has done? POI is on their schedule, in what is arguably one of the key timeslots.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    Bill, the networks I believe “Mon” is referring to are networks such as USA/TNT etc. Those networks that have only so much syndication money & time on their schedule for syndicated programming.

  • Mon

    @Anna
    You are correct, I’m talking about cable networks. My second post was supposed to be a continuation of my first post but three posts were posted sooner.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, the networks I believe “Mon” is referring to are networks such as USA/TNT etc. Those networks that have only so much syndication money & time on their schedule for syndicated programming.”

    Ah, I think you’re right.

    As I’ve noted many times, any show can be “successful” in syndication if the buyer pays the right price.

    Unlike broadcast primetime, most cable networks have *lots* of time to fill.

  • CenterGravity

    Cancel Vegas and The Good Wife, renew The Mentalist and CSI: New York.

  • Dan

    @Bill & Holly – Well that solves that Dilemma. A lot of low rated series get syndication runs but the ones I’m thinking of are comedies (According to Jim, Til Death) A lot of serialized dramas get syndication, like 24 and Lost to some extent but I guess for some reason The Good Wife is harder. I think it would make a great fit on TNT or USA or A&E. I guess if CBS can’t get a syndication deal then The Good Wife is done. The show will end this season at 90 episodes and the funny thing is is that, CBS will likely try to gamble with a final season, maybe 13 episodes to not only get over 100 eps but at the same time because a syndication deal would be more profitable with more eps, while they get no money out of the slightly higher rated Mentalist.

  • DenverDean

    The other thing going for BB – maybe beyond S4, is that it’s unlikely CBS will produce a new show or move a series (except for CSI: or CM in Fall 14) that will funnel 10MM viewers to local affiliates late news/Letterman on Friday night. A bigger audience + 25-54 is definitely more of a sweet spot for news than younger demos.

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