CBS: With Its Low Ratings, Why Is 'Blue Bloods' Certain To Be Renewed?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.50
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.64
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.87
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.51
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.17
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

-
With Vegas in the headline last week, and no other changes this week, or likely any week, until Golden Boy premieres in more than a month, I figured I'd focus, once again on a question that gets asked at least a few times each week on our comments.

With such low ratings, why is Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"?

CBS is a well oiled money printing syndication machine, and has shown that it will sacrifice low current ratings (and ad revenue) for the  bounty (or even the potential bounty, hello The Good Wife!) that the syndication gods provide I christened a new rule: If a CBS produced & aired scripted show reaches a third season it is certain to receive a fourth. That fourth season typically ensures at least the minimum number of episodes (~88) needed for stripped syndication.

That's why Blue Bloods has been "certain to be renewed" since the very start of the season. This is its third season, and it must see a fourth to reach 88 episodes.

That's also why Hawaii Five-0 was "certain to be renewed", but after a very slow ratings start, it finished the Fall reasonably well for a 10pm show, so it doesn't provoke the same level of questioning.

Note to the nitpicky commenters, although its just about as certain as it gets, How I Met Your Mother has not yet been officially renewed.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • B. Saget

    In January*

  • LisaNeedsBraces

    @Fan

    I think you have the most realistic schedule, except I’d switch Tuesdays and Thursdays at 10. Why move NCIS:LA to after POI when both are already established hits? CBS is going to use the POI lead-in to try and launch a new male-oriented drama at Thursdays at 10 next year, and right now of all the projects announced, my bet is on Beverly Hills Cop going there.

    The Good Wife will be snatched up eventually by a female oriented network like Lifetime, but maybe not until next season.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @LisaNeedsBraces

    I agree. Beverly Hills Cop will tale post PoI slot. And ncis spin-off tuesday slot. 3rd drama will be for midseason.

  • Mon

    Why would CBS move Elementary after only one season and the momentum it’s going to get this midseason from Super Bowl? And it’s produced by CBS so expect it to remain on Thursday next season.

  • DeanW

    @ LisaNeedsBraces

    I think Thursday night could be huge with NCIS: Los Angeles at 10. Four years ago, CBS premiered two new Shows on Tuesday at 9PM and 10PM and they were hits.
    CBS should Renew CSI: NY for a 13 episodes tenth Season and replace it in February by the fifth Season of The Good Wife (13 episodes). On Sunday, The Mentalist stays at 10 for a sixth Season of 19 episodes to make room for a New Drama in March/April (like CBS replaced CSI: Miami by NYC 22 last year) with Elementary at 9.
    TBBT will increase Monday nights and Im sure TBBT ratings will increase too.

  • Charmed

    Sorry to be a “nitpicky commenter” but I thought HIMYM was officially renewed? There was a page about it on here. And what does ** mean?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Sorry to be a “nitpicky commenter” but I thought HIMYM was officially renewed? There was a page about it on here.”

    While the cast members have been signed to another season, the report of the renewal was premature. It’s as certain as it can be absent the announcement, but there has been no announcement.

    And what does ** mean?”

    ** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

    But now that you mention it, I should remove them for HIMYM.

  • Just Desserts

    Syndication or not, I think The Good Wife is going to get a final fifth-season. Canceling it after pretty much getting awards ev’ry season would be damaging to the CBS brand.

  • PhilipM

    Awards don’t pay the bills, especially when they lead to zero audience gains. I learned that the hard way when Boston Legal, one of my favourite shows that received significantly more nominations then TGW, was canceled. And its ratings weren’t nearly as bad as those of TGW. Then again, maybe critical acclaim wasn’t such a rarity for ABC back then compared to CBS these days and made it less of a factor.

  • bluejays

    Why would CBS move Elementary to HFO’s slot when for the last couple months HFO has got higher or the same demo? Makes no sense. Either leave HFO there or put a new show there. You don’t move a show only doing the same numbers or lower in general (except those first couple weeks).

  • Biffmeister

    Last week, Blue Bloods was the 11th highest rated show among total viewers.
    Since it debuted 3 years ago, it has been the highest rated show on Friday nights, a night that has become more competitive the last couple of years. So why all this talk about low ratings? It will be renewed because it’s one of the best drama’s on television, INCLUDING CABLE, and it has very good ratings.

  • KJ Styles

    If networks like Lifetime, Oxygen, and OWN won’t pick up Good Wife for syndication then it will probably be cancelled. Especially if Golden Boy is renewed.

    As for Blue Bloods, It will probably be picked up by A&E. Other than Duck Dynasty, The First 48, Storage Wars, and Criminal Minds reruns it doesn’t have any real ratings winners.

  • KJ Styles

    @biffmeister- Blue Bloods has not been the highest rated Friday show this season. Both Undercover Boss and Grimm are higher rated, and even CSI NY has been on par or better some weeks. That said, I agree that it will be renewed but next season could be it’s last depending on how other Friday shows perform at the time.

  • gerry

    hopefully golden boy will cancel as well as csiny, then good wife and mentalist can just both renew.

  • Patrice

    I would like to see Jesse Stone made into a series. Tom is sexier as Jesse.

  • simon

    Well, to be honest… aside from Elementary, I am not sure what option they have? CBS hasnt really hit it big with their Drama’s to be perfectly honest It has a few good shows but rarely are any of them as high rated as their sit-coms.

    Nevertheless CBS normally finishes on top every week in the 18-49 demo so I dont see what all this hypothesizing is relevant. The bigger question is what the heck is ABC’s and FOX’s deal this season? If they don’t watch their back they will risk being outdone by NBC, which wouldn’t be the worst thing ever (NBC has had a bad couple of year and they deserve some recognition finally…!)

    NBC needs to rethink their comedies, if they want to regain the glory that they once had on thursday nights (but hopefully not at the expense of TaaHM and BBT!!) ever since they started airing the likes of the office, and Parks and recreation viewers have failed to take them seriously…

    I mean, fair enough they are critical successes, but does that brng in the big bucks at the end of day? Not if you use 2 Broke Girls as an example! That show used to be panned by critics on a daily basis during its first season. not only did that fail to make a difference in its obvious renewal but its audience has not stopped growing. So much so that last mondays episode hit a season high, and a series high if I’m not mistaken!

    NBC… America LOVES sitcoms… stick to that, and leave the single camera comedies to ABC coz lets face it: thats the only american networks that has ever done that genre justice!

    Peace!!
    S…

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Nevertheless CBS normally finishes on top every week in the 18-49 demo so I dont see what all this hypothesizing is relevant. The bigger question is what the heck is ABC’s and FOX’s deal this season? If they don’t watch their back they will risk being outdone by NBC, which wouldn’t be the worst thing ever (NBC has had a bad couple of year and they deserve some recognition finally…!)”

    Somebody hasn’t been paying attention.

    NBC has won almost all of the weeks of the season to date for adults 18-49. Of course, that’s over now.

    NBC’s a lock to beat ABC this season (as they did last season) among adults 18-49.

    Fox could catch NBC for 2nd with adults 18-49, but there are differing opinions about that potential. Best place to see the discussion is the season to date network ratings post.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @Why would CBS move Elementary after only one season and the momentum it’s going to get this midseason from Super Bowl? And it’s produced by CBS so expect it to remain on Thursday next season.

    Well thursday at 10 is best CBS slot for new dramas. POI is growing and is compatible with other CBS dramas like BH cop for example. Elementary is cbs show and they will want 4 seasons. Monday is their second best option. And h5o for friday or sunday because will be in its 4 season already.

  • JacobYates

    Why not change Vegas’s name to NCIS:1960? That would attract higher ratings right?

  • Heather Cariou

    WTF do you mean low ratings? It’s been in the top 20 all season, and has been #11 twice, in total audience. If you’re just talking about the demo, that’s bogus. Nothing touches it on Friday night. If it replaced NCIS on Tuesday’s, it would be a monster. You’re full of it re: Blue Bloods, Mr. Williams, and you have been since they shot the pilot.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures