CBS: With Its Low Ratings, Why Is 'Blue Bloods' Certain To Be Renewed?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.50
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.64
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.87
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.51
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.17
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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With Vegas in the headline last week, and no other changes this week, or likely any week, until Golden Boy premieres in more than a month, I figured I'd focus, once again on a question that gets asked at least a few times each week on our comments.

With such low ratings, why is Blue Bloods "certain to be renewed"?

CBS is a well oiled money printing syndication machine, and has shown that it will sacrifice low current ratings (and ad revenue) for the  bounty (or even the potential bounty, hello The Good Wife!) that the syndication gods provide I christened a new rule: If a CBS produced & aired scripted show reaches a third season it is certain to receive a fourth. That fourth season typically ensures at least the minimum number of episodes (~88) needed for stripped syndication.

That's why Blue Bloods has been "certain to be renewed" since the very start of the season. This is its third season, and it must see a fourth to reach 88 episodes.

That's also why Hawaii Five-0 was "certain to be renewed", but after a very slow ratings start, it finished the Fall reasonably well for a 10pm show, so it doesn't provoke the same level of questioning.

Note to the nitpicky commenters, although its just about as certain as it gets, How I Met Your Mother has not yet been officially renewed.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • DW

    H 5-0 has already been sold to TNT. the thing with TNT now is they do turn over a lot of shows so i can see a low rated program for a while look at supernatural. BB could go on spike. TGW can end up on we , oxygen and netflix / amazon.

  • Nick

    @Bill Gorman

    NBC’s a lock to beat ABC this season (as they did last season) among adults 18-49.

    What? Last season, NBC got a 2.4 average and ABC got a 2.5. They didn’t beat ABC last season.
    Although, I do agree that NBC will definitely beat ABC this season, even with their recent disastrous ratings.

  • Dan

    The demo for Vegas matters, otherwise if it total viewers mattered it would easily get a second season. Rules of Engagement will return on Feb 4 for what is likely its final season of 13 eps. And @Mon – rolleyes?

  • Dan

    And as for HIMYM, those following the story, barney and robins wedding is May 25 2013, where Ted supposedly meets the mother. Another season would likely reveal the mother so even though the show is unoficially renewed, it might be best for the show creatively to end now, though its still killing it in the ratings

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “What? Last season, NBC got a 2.4 average and ABC got a 2.5. “

    You have those numbers reversed. NBC had the 2.5, and ABC had the 2.4.

    Here is the CBS press release touting their viewership win, scroll down to see the 18-49 numbers:

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/05/22/cbs-wins-2011-2012-season-in-viewers-by-largest-margin-of-victory-by-any-network-in-23-years/135443/

  • geri

    I think Blue Bloods is one of the best shows on TV. The ratings are so low because it is on Friday night. It’s never been given a fair shot on any other night. I would watch reruns of it.

  • bluejays

    @Petar – but why would they move a show to a slot where another show is doing the same numbers?
    It makes no sense at all.

    One thing CBS should think about doing if they want to free up that Monday slot (but won’t) is moving CSI to Friday. Move HFO to Tuesday or Wednesday at ten and then launch two new dramas on Monday and the other free day.

    CSI is doing well but it’s ageing and it’s numbers aren’t that different to HFO or Elementary (and with way less competition than they both face) so its slot should be used for a new drama or to place a younger drama. CSI could do well for a couple years on Fridays and you could then use Monday to try and launch something new and keep Elementary where it is.

  • CBSviewer

    NO ! Why are you all saying CSI should move to Friday ? It’s really doing a great job on Wednesday at 10. None of H50 or Elementary got more than 12 million viewers and a 2.6 (exept the Series premiere of Elementary and two weeks ago when TBBT beat a new record). CSI is the oldest scripted drama on CBS and it’s their best 10PM drama.
    On the other hand, H50 should stay on Monday next Season. A 2.4-2.5 is good considering the ratings it had in the beginning of the season. If Elementary is canceled in May, H50 will move to Sunday at 9. TGW should get a 13 episodes fifth and final Season on Friday beginning in February.
    CSI: NY is also doing good numbers for a nine year-old Show on Friday and it the perfect lead-in for BB.

  • a p garcia

    That is a good question?

  • mike

    two and half men need to be cancelled

  • John

    IMHO, CSI: NY jumped the shark in the last episode. Although over half of homicides in that city are committed by blacks, virtually every homicide on the show is committed by a white male. To stick a thumb in the eye of those of us who noticed, the beginning of the last episode opened with 3 black thugs robbing and killing an off-duty cop. Midway though, we learn that the perps were really 3 white guys in black man masks! Enough already!

  • bluejays

    @CBS viewer – I’m only suggesting CSI for Fridays because of its age not its ratings (although this week both HFO and Elementary beat it and that’s without a huge amount of competition, yet again, for CSI).

    CSI NY is done.

  • The End

    @mike

    Pity, you’l be crying tears of blood by the sound of things when the show is renewed. Everything is pointing towards a Two and a Half Men renewal.

    I’ve discussed this enough but couldn’t resist a hater lol.

  • Nick

    @Bill Gorman

    Yes, at that time. But ABC released a press release a few weeks later saying that when L+7 data for the last week and a half of the season was added, their average rating ticked up a point to 2.5. The numbers you have used L+7 data for the first 30-odd weeks of the season, and L+SD for the last 1 1/2 weeks.

  • Dan

    Well we can all agree that CSI NY is done, its not gonna be confirmed until May. I still think The Good Wife will get a syndication deal somehow, plenty of low rated serialized shows get deals somewhere, A&E, TNT, somewhere will pick the show up. Even if not CBS can tout the awards that the show brought them even though it doesnt make them any money.

  • andri

    Criminal minds had seen its prime.sell it to cable and revamp crime drama’s back to the 21st century.

  • Oliver

    CBS seems to be ordering a lot of comedy pilots.

    My guess is the 2hr Thursday comedy block is a go.

  • Rob R

    The Good Wife is so low rated that it was the 15th most popular program in all of television last week. Of course, that included a lot of aged and decrepit 50-somethings with tons of disposable income.

  • Petar

    @CBS seems to be ordering a lot of comedy pilots.
    My guess is the 2hr Thursday comedy block is a go.

    I have deja vu. Like last season. And like last season most of them are single-cam. 6 sitcoms 2 multi and 4 single cam. If they really take these single cam will be on friday or sunday. But they will collapse anyway. If they move TAHM this old show will collapse too. Barely hit 4.0 with around 7.0 TBBT lead-out imagine what will be on its own next season when even more people will stop wathcing it(like all veteran shows)

  • Shimshon

    BlueBloods is such a great show, better than mentalist, good wife and hawaii 5-0 if you ask me…
    I can’t believe that people want to get rid of it so soon!
    if cbs cancels it after the forth season, it’s gonna be a terrible mistake! What other new show they can broadcast instead will give more ratings??!

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