CW: If 'The Carrie Diaries' Gets Renewed, What Additional Show Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Although last night's relatively weak start for The Carrie Diaries may make the question in the headline moot, this was already written, so go with it.
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Since it premiered just last night, The Carrie Diaries ratings haven't yet been incorporated into the table above or predictions yet, but with nothing happening last week on the CW save the burn off the the doomed Emily Owens, MD, it's worth posing the question:

If The Carrie Diaries gets renewed, what additional show gets canceled?

Yes, fans of 90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast, even before The Carrie Diaries premiered one of those shows was certain to be canceled, if The Carrie Diaries is renewed, another one will be as well.

But which one will it be? If you're trying to read the tea leaves of the latest remarks of CW Chief Mark Pedowitz, you have my sympathies.

I could make a reasonable argument for all three. 90210 gets its series wrap up this season instead of next. The CW can jettison Hart Of Dixie instead of being "albatrossed" with it for two more seasons (ala, Nikita). Beauty & The Beast was already top of the "next to cancel" list.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dillan

    If TCD gets renewed (which I think it will, I can see the ratings stabilizing like HOD did), then B&TB will be gone. But I think B&TB will be gone with whatever happens.

  • Timmy G

    TCD isn’t getting renewed. The show had hype, and it almost did as bad as Emily Owens. If Cult does even slightly better, the CW will be totally rid of the teen girl drama next season.

  • Jack

    What hype was there for TCD, may I ask? I follow lots of media types on Twitter and they didn’t seem to start buzz chatter about it until this weekend and some stuff out of the TCAs. Because of the holidays and reruns on the CW, fewer people are watching the channel to see any of the ads they may have been running for the show. Plus, it seems naturally more difficult to debut a show midseason because people are used to shows premiering in the fall. Did any of the actors do press or talk shows? If they did, I wasn’t aware of it. It’s just odd to me that a show like BatB can have a Comic Con and fall promotion tour, a great time slot after TVD, and apparently avid fans who’ll vote in droves for the PCA, yet its ratings have never been impressive.

  • halloween

    Cancel all the Josh Schwartz shows (Hart of Dixie, Cult, Carrie Diaries) and the CW would be better off

  • TV#1

    A possible Fall 2013 CW schedule could be…

    Mon:
    *New Drama*
    90210 Final Season (10 Episodes)

    Tue:
    *The Selection*
    Hart of Dixie

    Wed:
    Arrow
    *New Drama*

    Thur:
    The Vampire Diaries
    *The Originals*

    Fri:
    Supernatural
    Nikita

  • Alan

    Probably Hart of Dixie.
    The problem is that the people who watched the TCD pilot thought that it would be bad but they were surprised! I can see more people tuning in next week.

  • Alan

    Besides, it’s too soon to say that TCD will be cancelled. There’s another repeat of the pilot on Thursday after TVD, I think that will help the show a little more.

  • calob

    I think they should get rid of TCD, 90210 and Nikita and bring The originals, The Tomorrow people, Amazon, Embrace, and Sleepy Hollow all to the network. If done right, they could all be hits

  • Greg

    Cult and Beauty and the Beast will get cancelled. The Carrie Diaries might too, but I don’t think any of the other has a chance of getting cancelled. 90210 will get its final season, Hart of Dixie is doing solidly, Nikitia is getting the 88 episodes requested for syndication and be done with it.

    MONDAYS: Hart of Dixie/The Carrie Diaries*
    TUESDAYS: The Selection/Supernatural
    WEDNESDAYS: Arrow/Wonder Woman
    THURSDAYS: The Vampire Diaries/The Originals
    FRIDAYS: Nikita/America’s Next Top Model

    90210 replaces ANTM on midseason.

    *If The Carrie Diaries gets cancelled, then ANTM takes the Mondays at 9 timeslot and Fridays at 9 goes to reruns.

  • lll

    If the CW doesn’t want to cancel any shows they always have midseason or the summer option. They can try new shows in the fall and place the lower rated shows in the spring should any new show fail. The remaining shows left off the schedule can air in the summer.

  • chris23

    @TV #1. Your schedule needs tweeking. I say CW should move HOD to Fridays w/Nikita and Put SuperNatural at 9 with a new show premiering in front of it. Also I don’t think The Originals should air directly after VD.. Since Originals has a fanbase shared with VD which scores mid 1 demo and with dvr hits low 2′s and near 4 mil viewers, I think it should be a self starter, not to mention too much vd in one night. CW should give 90210 heads up and let it get canceled this season.

  • calob

    @greg ANTM is going to be aired during the Summer and I doubt they’ll only have 3 new shows. I think they will have 5 like they did for this year

  • Greg

    @calob

    ANTM will BEGIN to air on summer. It might air the last half of its cycle on the fall, just like it happened this season.

    They only greenlight two additional dramas because Gossip Girl was ending and ANTM wasn’t returning on midseason, leaving two empty slots for midseason. They might greenlight one more drama if The Carrie Diaries gets cancelled, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they just leave the Fridays at 9 slot empty for the entire season.

  • Wright

    Please cancel 90210 already. TCD should be cancelled too. Keep TVD, SPN and Arrow. I like HOD and Nikita, but if they get cancelled to make room for The Originals and Embrace I would understand. Maybe they can look into doing a spinoff of SPN about angels and have Castiel as the lead.

  • chris23

    Since we are doing fantasy schedules here is mine, on the off chance cult gets renewed and Carrie is canceled this is what my 2013-14 CW schedule would look like:

    Mondays: 8 CULT 9 Supernatural
    Tuesdays: 8 The Originals 9 Selection
    Wednesdays: 8 Arrow 9 Amazon
    Thursdays: 8 The Vampire Diaries 9 New Series
    Fridays: 8 Hart of Dixie 9 Nikita

    I think Cult and Supernatural would do good on Mondays as a replacement to the years of teenage crap previously on CW schedule. In regards to competition it would skew differently genre/viewer wise vs cbs comedies,nbc the voice, and abc female driven bachelor and dwts. The other pilots are yet to be named but I just threw these titles on the schedule instead of calling it “NEW Series”. I am however very interested in a reboot version of Selection.

    CW should be smart and promote the hell out CULT. Do talk shows at night and daytime (i.e. Leno, Kimmel, Kelly and Michael, the talk, Entertainment shows ET, Chelsea Lately) commercials during wednesdays and Thursdays in particular. I hope this show does well as the premise sounds like a good one if written and directed properly.

  • NEK5552

    There is a chance the CW may hold on of the series until mid season. LIke some of it lower performers like Nikita and 90210 like the way they did one tree hill last seasion.

  • Tom

    B&B, of course. Blame it on Nina Lisandrello’s bad impersonation of Roseanne Rosanadana.

  • Joseph

    Cancel the whole CW and move the network’s two or three most popular shows onto CBS’s (the CW’s half-sister network) prime-time schedule!

  • carla

    Why would CW cancel BATB over HOD when its getting better ratings and is giving them press?

  • Raykov

    Ok… so dream schedules here I come…

    Monday:
    The Carrie Diaries
    90210 (Final 10-11 episodes)

    Tuesday:
    Supernatural
    The Selection (new)

    Wednesday:
    Arrow
    Amazon (new)

    Thursday:
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals (new)

    Friday
    Heart of Dixie
    Nikita

    In mid-season it will be either A new teen drama, Cult (if renewed) or ANTP that will replace 90210

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