CW: If 'The Carrie Diaries' Gets Renewed, What Additional Show Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Although last night's relatively weak start for The Carrie Diaries may make the question in the headline moot, this was already written, so go with it.
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Since it premiered just last night, The Carrie Diaries ratings haven't yet been incorporated into the table above or predictions yet, but with nothing happening last week on the CW save the burn off the the doomed Emily Owens, MD, it's worth posing the question:

If The Carrie Diaries gets renewed, what additional show gets canceled?

Yes, fans of 90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast, even before The Carrie Diaries premiered one of those shows was certain to be canceled, if The Carrie Diaries is renewed, another one will be as well.

But which one will it be? If you're trying to read the tea leaves of the latest remarks of CW Chief Mark Pedowitz, you have my sympathies.

I could make a reasonable argument for all three. 90210 gets its series wrap up this season instead of next. The CW can jettison Hart Of Dixie instead of being "albatrossed" with it for two more seasons (ala, Nikita). Beauty & The Beast was already top of the "next to cancel" list.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • RyanCanada

    Cancel 90210, i used to be a fan, but that show has really lost its way, and worn out its welcome, i dont wanna see HOD, BATB, TCD cancelled, but Nikita i could care less about, CW could cancel 90210 and nitkita

  • Brandy

    Carla,because HoD is one of CWs cheapest shows to make, its steady in ratings with no leadin while Beauty keeps falling and will likley fall more in spring as most shows do and Beautys not making the most out of VDs leadin like HoD did GG last season and its already doing as bad as SC was in spring and 0.5_0.6 in its first season isnt good.

  • Brandy

    Carla, also, HOD is closer to syndication.

  • JC

    Part of me thinks The CW should cancel everything except TVD, Arrow, and Supernatural, though I know they won’t do that. But they should really try to be smart with their shows next year (which I doubt they will).

    Sleepy Hallow is a good idea in theory, but will be bad in reality. We don’t need another contemporary twist with a FBI agent/cop. This is as played out as medical dramas. Look at Beauty and the Beast. No more procedural crap.

    The Selection is also a bad idea. A dystopian Bachelor=No. They will be ridiculed with a protagonist named America Singer.

    The Tomorrow People is a good idea, but they should work from the 90s series rather than the 70s one, as I feel this would be more palatable to audiences. Also, build a mythology and minimize if not eliminate crimes of the week (do artifact/SF mysteries or anything else).

    Reign could be a really good idea if done right. Unfortunately, the blurb I read about it sounds like they’re going in the wrong direction. “Game of Thrones meets Marie Antoinette” is bad. Game of Thrones is an awesome show, but Reign should be its own thing. Why are they doing this secret history/supernatural stuff? Mary Queen of Scots was not a warrior queen, and her actual story is interesting enough. Like The Carries Diaries, they will make a confusing show that will alienate both sets of viewers they’d like to attract.

    Amazon: I’d like to see a female superhero. However, I don’t want this to become the superhero network in lieu of the teen drama network. Still, Wonder Woman deserves a try, but idk if this will actually fly.

    Embrace/Copeland Prep: No. Buffy and Gossip Girl have been done. Adding angels or monsters does make an old idea fresh. Also, look at what happened with The Secret Circle. Picking a different supernatural creature does not equate to a breakout success.

    The Originals: good idea, should be good in reality, though I’m not sure if it will get as high of ratings as TVD because not all of the fans love the originals (I don’t understand these people, lol, but they exist). They should market this show to TVD fans and try to reach new people by giving it a unique bent.

    The Hundred: As bad idea as The Selection. Why would they choose a hundred teenagers to repopulate the Earth? Doesn’t make sense.

    If Sleepy Hallow was neither contemporary nor procedural, there would be potential. Unfortunately, no one has enough imagination (or budget) to do this.

    So from these offerings, I’d choose: The Originals, Tomorrow People, Reign, and Amazon.

  • JJA

    Sleepy Hallow — better save this until after Supernatural ends.

    Amazon — could be either really good or really bad.

    The Originals — too much Castiel! Umm, … I mean Klaus.

    Tomorrow People — More SyFy than CW. I used to watch the BBC version.

    Embrace — THIS could work really well with the right cast & writers.

    Expectations — Gossip Girl in San Fran, but different producers. Try it!

    Wrecking Ball — if it has a Kennedy-type mythology, this could be great.

    Reign, The Hunder, Copeland Prep, Wonderland — are they serious ??

  • Nick

    @JC

    A dystopian Bachelor=No. They will be ridiculed with a protagonist named America Singer.

    If you actually read the book, you’d know that it’s NOT a dystopian Bachelor and the protagonist is name America Singer for a reason.

  • Nick

    What The CW should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: Hart of Dixie
    9: America’s Next top Model/ Meridian Hills (new)

    Tue-
    8: The Hundred (new)
    9: Supernatural

    Wed-
    8: Arrow
    9: Amazon (new)

    Thu-
    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Originals (TVD spinoff) (new) 

    Fri-
    8: Nikita (full final season)
    9: 90210 (10 episode final season)

  • Linda

    If (and that’s a BIG IF because I don’t see them doing that) they move Supernatural, I doubt they’ll move it to a night it previously had, so no to Tuesday, Thursday or Fridays

  • JoJo

    This year the CW has a lot of series that are doing pretty solid. That hasn’t happened the last couple seasons. Obviously TVD..SPN and Arrow are gonna get renewed. 90210 can easily wrap up whatever story it has left this season. That leaves HoD and BATB. My bet is that both series will get renewed leaving Cult and Carrie Diaries. TCD was a solid pilot that I see the CW staying with and trying to grow. The same thing happened to HoD last season and was repeated all Summer. I do feel Nikita will get a renewal but won’t premiere during the Fall. Nikita should air season 4 during the Summer with BATB repeats.

  • Mico

    Monday
    The Hundred (new)
    Supernatural

    Tuesday
    Hart of Dixie
    90210 (final)

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday
    The Beauty and The Beast
    NIKITA

  • Jared

    I think whatever series the CW plans to pick up next season will determine the cancellation of the current bubble shows. For example..whats the point of keeping HoD and TCD if all the pilots next season have a supernatural/super hero aspect to them. To me BATB seems the most likely to survive considering its themes and the fact that it could be easily paired up. HoD(although I personally love it)is going to have a harder time making sense if the CW doesn’t plans to stick with TCD or bring on a new series that doesn’t involve vampires..zombies or super hero vigilantes.

  • Jared

    Any chance Hart of Dixie could be made into a Summer series? Considering its low budget and the fact that it did pretty well last Summer airing repeats?

  • No Love

    I hope they don’t cancel B&B, but it needs to ditch the villain-of-the-week police procedural format and transition into a paranormal romance / action-adventure, like Smallville did before it.

  • David Howell

    BaTB has to go. I think one of the other two goes anyway (or 90210 gets a short final season and something else comes in midseason). HoD has the best case for renewal as it’s a self-starter and apparently very cheap, but they could be left with a second season in a row lumbered with buyer’s remorse over a de facto 44 episode order.

    Seeing as CW love their final season orders, I’ll predict 90210 gets one, the other two are cancelled, and Nikita gets the most reluctant renewal in the history of broadcast television. That leaves three shows to build the network around, and one of the CW’s co-owners know a thing or two about building a network around a franchise. The Originals is a shoo-in, and takes the Thursday 9pm slot; by the same logic, Amazon is a pickup too, though I’d keep SPN where it is rather than moving it to create a superhero night.

    I thought that The Selection should have been picked up last season, although I was not aware quite how epic a fail the pilot was. Assuming it’s been even halfway fixed, it’s worth it.

    The resultant schedule might look a bit like this:
    MON: 90210 [midseason: Expectations]/Selection
    TUE: Amazon/Reign
    WED: Arrow/SPN
    THU: TVD/Originals
    FRI: Tomorrow People/Nikita

    And I’d launch the Wednesday and Thursday lineup a week early, to give some promotion momentum for the new Monday and Tuesday shows.

  • June

    Carla, BatB is only doing marginally better than HOD now, and it is a new show. If press doesn’t translate to good ratings why would the CW keep the show? If BatB completely owns HOD in the spring then renewal may be more likely. Based on last year, spring ratings seem to be quite important.

  • Adam

    knowing that the CW wants to add more content to the network during Summer, Hart of Dixie would be a great addition to that schedule. Its light,funny and enjoyable with a small but steady audience that I believe would follow it during the Summer. I hope the CW would possibly consider this scenario for 2 more seasons(syndication purposes).

  • JulieDawn

    Should the Cancellation Bear get too close, the Beast will just eat him.

  • Jamie

    A possible fall 2013 CW schedule:

    Monday
    8pm The Carrie Diaries
    9pm 90210 (short final season)

    Tuesday
    8pm The Originals
    9pm Cult

    Wednesday
    8pm Arrow
    9pm Supernatural

    Thursday
    8pm The Vampire Diaries
    9pm The Hunt

    Friday
    8pm Nikita
    9pm Sleepy Hollow

    Mid-season Hart of Dixie, Amazon and the new dating show they have in development.

  • CBSviewer

    What CW should do:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – 90210 (final season, 13 episodes) / Beauty and the Beast (13 episodes)
    9:00 – The Hundred

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – America’s Next Top Model / Tomorrow People
    9:00 – Amazon

    WEDESDAY
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – Superatural

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – The Originals

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Nikita
    9:00 – Hart of Dixie

    The CW should move Hart of Dixie to Friday to help Nikita and Keep Beauty and the Beast for midseason.

  • Brandy

    @DavidHowell,Jamie, CW is not going to premiere a new show on fri.
    I still say ,Beauty &Carrie sadly will be cancelled, HOD renewed,90210 renewed for short final season and Nikita renewed fo a fourth and final season.Cult I predict will fail and be cancelled.

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