CW: If 'The Carrie Diaries' Gets Renewed, What Additional Show Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Although last night's relatively weak start for The Carrie Diaries may make the question in the headline moot, this was already written, so go with it.
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Since it premiered just last night, The Carrie Diaries ratings haven't yet been incorporated into the table above or predictions yet, but with nothing happening last week on the CW save the burn off the the doomed Emily Owens, MD, it's worth posing the question:

If The Carrie Diaries gets renewed, what additional show gets canceled?

Yes, fans of 90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast, even before The Carrie Diaries premiered one of those shows was certain to be canceled, if The Carrie Diaries is renewed, another one will be as well.

But which one will it be? If you're trying to read the tea leaves of the latest remarks of CW Chief Mark Pedowitz, you have my sympathies.

I could make a reasonable argument for all three. 90210 gets its series wrap up this season instead of next. The CW can jettison Hart Of Dixie instead of being "albatrossed" with it for two more seasons (ala, Nikita). Beauty & The Beast was already top of the "next to cancel" list.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Nick

    @Jamie

    Hart of Dixie can’t go to midseason. The CW is certain to give HOD 22 episodes if it’s renewed, because it’s within 2 seasons of syndication.

  • Spence

    The CW should renew Supernatural, 90210 (final season), The Vampire Diaries, Nikita (final season), Hart of Dixie, Arrow and Beauty and the Beast.

    Pick up The Selection, Amazon, The Originals (I’m sure all three of them will get a pilot order) and two other dramas for mid-season, possibly to premiere for in the summer.

    Move Hart of Dixie back to mondays as a lead in for The Selection.

    Premiere Amazon on tuesdays followed by Beauty and the Beast.

    Keep Supernatural and Arrow on wednesdays. Both shows are doing well in their timeslots and it’s currently the best night on the network.

    Keep The Vampire Diaries on thursdays followed by it’s spin-off The Originals. This could actually work out great for The CW.

    Let Nikita run out it’s course on friday along with 90210.

  • Kenn

    If this survives, every single show can survive.

  • SRD

    As long as Beauty & the Beast is renewed I’ll be happy.

  • Tom

    ‘Why would CW cancel BATB over HOD when its getting better ratings and is giving them press?”

    HOD and B&B both had 0.6 ratings for their last episodes. And – as Mr. Gorman thoughtfully pointed out – the People’s Choice Awards don’t affect renewal decisions.

  • Amanda

    Why do some people keep saying BATB should be canceled every time there’s a new article on this site about the CW’s shows?

    It won a People Choice Award for “Favorite New Drama”, it’s the 4th highest rated TV series on the network and it’s cheaper of a production of a series than The Secret Circle was last year and I’m pretty sure cheaper than both Arrow and The Vampire Diaries.

    Also Pedowitz had this to say about the series this past Sunday:

    “We believe the show has a very long run in front of it. We’ve made no announcements about a second season. But based on the passion of the fans both on the E! Online and the People’s Choice Awards, we think we have something in this epic love story between Cat and Vincent. I believe the show has more growth potential than Secret Circle in terms of its creativity and because we’re centered around that love story.”

  • Amanda

    @Tom

    By the President of The CW, Mark Pedowitz:

    “We believe the show has a very long run in front of it. We’ve made no announcements about a second season. But based on the passion of the fans both on the E! Online and the People’s Choice Awards, we think we have something in this epic love story between Cat and Vincent. I believe the show has more growth potential than Secret Circle in terms of its creativity and because we’re centered around that love story.”

    Clearly seems like the PCA win made heads turn in a positive direction, not in a negative one.

  • Nevid

    My 2013-2014 Schedule:

    Monday:
    8:00 Hart of Dixie
    9:00 90210 (short final season)/Meridian Hills

    Tuesday:
    8:00 Sleepy Hollow or Tomorrow People
    9:00 Supernatural

    Wednesday:
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 Amazon

    Thursday:
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 Embrace or The Originals

    Friday:
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 Cult or Beauty and the Beast

    - I think if Cult gets renewed, it could be a perfect match for Nikita. If it gets canceled, I think they should put there Beauty and the Beast.

  • Tom

    @ Amanda When I first saw Pedowitz’s statement a few days ago, my eyes went straight to his comment that “I believe the show has more growth potential than Secret Circle.” Potential. As in “hasn’t yet accomplished something”. B&B plummeted to a 0.6 by its third episode and briefly dropped to 0.5″. No growth there. The PCA is nothing more than the result of a few fanatical fans dedicating their mortal existence to pounding on a voting button a few thousand times. How else could a show that averages about 1.5 MM voters per week win by over 10 MM votes? That PCA may bump the show’s rating up 0.1 of a demo point for a week or two, but that won’t last after new viewers get a load of Kreuk and Lisandrello mangling their parts. Sorry, Amanda, but as Pedowitz noted, nothing was said about renewing this show and the reason is obvious.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Bill Gorman
    And the same thing happened to Hellcats, in case anybody thinks TSC’s demise was a fluke. The CW weights spring ratings heavily for all but its most stable (and first renewed) shows.

  • jody

    Cancel 90210, i used to be a fan, but that show has really lost its way, and worn out its welcome, i dont wanna see HOD, BATB, TCD cancelled, but Nikita i could care less about, CW could cancel 90210 and nitkita
    ^
    Exactly

  • Amanda

    @Tom

    You said the PCA has no affect on a decision, no affect means–no affect. Because if “no affect” was done by the PCA win, Pedowitz wouldn’t had said: “BUT based on the passion of the fans…ect” when talking about a second season, to then continue on and say it has more growth potential than a previous series that was canceled on the network which was on the same time slot.

    Do I believe that’ll be the reason if the series gets a renewal, of course not. But to state that isn’t a helping factor and has no affect whatsoever in every sense of the word, is foolish.

    Also you’re completely overlooking factors like the foreign markets, online views and other deciding points for the network.

    Pedowitz stated the following this past Sunday:

    “We are still experimenting with the new ratings system,” Pedowitz said. “We’ve been doing a lot of work with Rentrak and TRA (TiVo Research and Analytics) and discovered, surprisingly with Rentrak, that all broadcast, in terms of measuring households, is higher than what Nielsen is reporting. We’re about 21% higher.”

    As for BATB winning by 10 million vote, that’s not a number to laugh at. Clearly the series has a strong following that doesn’t only reside in the USA and those numbers you keep throwing around only factor those who reside in the USA, who also have Nielsen boxes. That brings down the factual numbers of those who are actually watching by a lot, more so since less then 1% of the USA has a Nielsen box in their household.

    Another note, your comments about Kristin and Nina clearly shows your true colors in regards to Beauty and The Beast. You clearly want the series to fail either because you’re a bitter TSC fan or for other factors, hence why you’ve made the comments you’ve made.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “And the same thing happened to Hellcats, in case anybody thinks TSC’s demise was a fluke. The CW weights spring ratings heavily for all but its most stable (and first renewed) shows.”

    Hellcats fell far enough, soon enough for me to predict it right, but I only moved it to “likely canceled” in late April. TSC started relatively much higher and didn’t fall as far, as fast, and I had it a toss up until the end and then picked wrong in the final guess, so the situations of the two shows were different enough to have fooled me.

  • Dóchas

    The CW needs something like a Dawson’s Creek/One Tree Hill/Gilmore Girls style show to mix it up. Not more Gossip Girl/Mean Girl/90210 rich kid drama’s that apparently only appeal to a few. Their scifi/paranormal shows do very well.Add one more to make it two solid nights of entertainment then mix in quality drama’s that appeal. Seeing rich kids bitch and moan, silly doctor’s talking to themselves, flitty blondes and silly twits just doesn’t work. That means everything on the CW goes but the top 3. HoD has lost it’s charming appeal for me and I have no idea how they expect us to believe Zoe made it through medical school with her flighty brain. It’s become a joke. Scott Porter could do much better. Rachel Bilson as well. Bring on Sophia Bush in another adult themed drama and make it work CW.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Carrie Diaries is done for, stick a fork in it.

    Hart of Dixie is likely to go. It’s not comparable to Nikita, so syndication is unlikely.

    Beauty and the Beast is likely to go. It just has nothing to recommend it – it has no overall story arc, and the crime procedural story lines are boring.

    90210 might get a short final season but frankly they should jettison it as well – it belongs to the “old CW” line of shows.

    Nikita is guaranteed a fourth season.

    Cult is likely to “die very badly” although perhaps not as badly as Carrie Diaries. The premise is confused, and although a couple cast members are competent, I’m not sure they can carry the show.

  • ChicagoTJ

    With the exception of ‘The Carrie Diaries’ I feel like had Nikita, Hart of Dixie, Emily Owens and Beauty and the Beast could have been solid hits for the CW upon it’s creation in 2006. In 2006 Americans were still watching shows like these on network television by the millions. Carrie Diaries is a different story, bad idea from start to finish. SATC fans don’t want to see it and it’s not really relateable to today’s teens who weren’t even born yet in the 80′s.

    With cable networks stepping their game up by leaps and bounds with original scripted programs, a broadcast network like the CW really does not stand a chance. It’s no longer funny in 2013 laughing at their ratings, pilot choices and the pilots they send to series. American TV viewing habits change ALOT season to season. One season you’re hot, the very next season you’re NOT or if you’re lucky you’re getting half the viewers you were when you were hot. At this point I would not know exactly to do with the CW at this point, hell nobody else seems to either. I do know one thing, from day one when Ostroff chose to stop airing comedies I knew it was a bad idea.

    A couple good sitcoms can help give you a solid night and in today’s marketplace with NBC’s and FOX’s comedies, if the CW had some really good ones, and I mean the likes of a Moesha, The Game, The Parkers, Living Single, A Different World you know the better written urban comedies they could easily beat NBC or FOX’s offerings. Any adult or any TV exec knows African American’s watch more TV on a nightly basis than any other race. It’s been that way for decades and they support and show up for the better quality shows, hell sometimes they show up for the trash more so. So that’s why I don’t understand with the Viacom networks like BET and VH1 having their best years ever thanks for urban shows why the CW wouldn’t try urban comedies again.

  • Amanda

    @Richard Steven Hack

    “Beauty and the Beast is likely to go. It just has nothing to recommend it – it has no overall story arc, and the crime procedural story lines are boring.”

    I’m confused as to why you would say the series doesn’t have an overall arc, when the overall arc since the very beginning has always been Vincent and Catherine’s relationship & Vincent being a Beast and the issues that come with that.

    As for the season arc, the season started with the following arcs:

    - Who killed Catherine’s mother.
    - Why did they kill her mother.
    - How is Vincent and Catherine’s mother connected.
    - Now that they all know the above answers, does that mean there’s a cure to fix Vincent?
    - No there’s not, what does those this mean for Vincent?

    …and before the break we learned that Vincent is becoming less and less human and more animal. Now when the series returns, the next half of the season is going to focus on that and of course the relationship between Catherine and Vincent.

  • marciel

    @ Zoe made it through medical school with her flighty brain…
    Rachel Bilson is an airhead-dumbo in real life if some very few failed to noticed the most obvious.
    CW should probably give that HOD lead role to previous CW stars who at least got a smart face like Alexis Bledel, Hilary Burton or Kristen Bell.

  • Daniel

    You thought Max was annoying with his Revenge x Scandal thing? You thought TSC fans were bitter? Well, I present you the ANNOYING Beauty and The Beast fans: delusional, defensive and preaching that that walking dead show is amazing. Ugh!

  • Tom

    @ Amanda “You said the PCA has no affect on a decision,…’ Wrong. That was a paraphrase of an earlier comment by Mr. Gorman. I was just deferring to the master. (And, for that matter, his genius in creating endless page views by pitting CW fans and foes against each other). Moreover, do you seriously believe Pedowitz would ever say anything derogatory about one of his shows? Remember, this is the guy who stood firm in the face of a barrage of criticism against the LA Complex. That show was so bad even the Canadians eventually gave up on it. And we’ll see how advertisers warm up to his newfangled spin on ratings. Hint: Don’t get optimistic.

    The dynamics behind the voting for the People’s Choice Awards are no mystery. It’s all about ballot box stuffing. lf you’re suggesting that millions of viewers singly voted for B&B, you’ll have to prove up. Besides, a program with that many fans likely wouldn’t have a 0.6 demo. Nice try though.

    Finally, kindly stop trying to deflect criticism of this ridiculous show onto TSC fans. The latter have nothing to do with the fact that B&B plummeted to a 0.6 rating in three episodes. As for the acting (so to speak), please visit a theater or some other venue populated by real actors. Then you may recognize that KK’s finest acting moment occurred during the first 5 minutes of the movie “Eurotrip”. And the only reason she pulled that off is because Mat Damon was there to quite literally carry her. Face it, a fashion model playing a cop with a gun that’s half her size isn’t a character. It’s a caricature. And, as I said earlier, Nina Lisandrello is probably the first television cop to do a full time impersonation of Roseann Rosannadana. Not a pretty picture.

    So, while I admire your devotion to B&B, try and give some thought to what ratings the Originals will achieve in the same timeslot next fall.

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