CW: If 'The Carrie Diaries' Gets Renewed, What Additional Show Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Although last night's relatively weak start for The Carrie Diaries may make the question in the headline moot, this was already written, so go with it.
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Since it premiered just last night, The Carrie Diaries ratings haven't yet been incorporated into the table above or predictions yet, but with nothing happening last week on the CW save the burn off the the doomed Emily Owens, MD, it's worth posing the question:

If The Carrie Diaries gets renewed, what additional show gets canceled?

Yes, fans of 90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast, even before The Carrie Diaries premiered one of those shows was certain to be canceled, if The Carrie Diaries is renewed, another one will be as well.

But which one will it be? If you're trying to read the tea leaves of the latest remarks of CW Chief Mark Pedowitz, you have my sympathies.

I could make a reasonable argument for all three. 90210 gets its series wrap up this season instead of next. The CW can jettison Hart Of Dixie instead of being "albatrossed" with it for two more seasons (ala, Nikita). Beauty & The Beast was already top of the "next to cancel" list.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • thesnowleopard

    @Bill Gorman
    Out of curiosity, when did you make the decision that Hellcats was doomed?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Out of curiosity, when did you make the decision that Hellcats was doomed?”

    Then.

  • Mark Wood

    BEauty & the BEast versus Hart of Dixie for those posters who seem interested.

    Beauty & the Beast as a new show obviously started the season stronger (Most new shows start high, and then proceed to drop, having larger drops then returning shows which generally are more stable). There are of course a few exceptions to this, but they are not that common.

    Beauty & the BEast to date hasn’t been stable. OUt of the four shows to follow VD, its dropped percentage wise the largest percents in adults 18-49, adults 18-34, and both men and women 18-34.

    The last three episodes of Beauty & the BEast, Hart of Dixie and 90210 have produced the following results.

    Adults 18-49

    Beauty & the Beast
    .567
    Hart of Dixie and 90210
    .533

    Thanks to those numbers based on weekly results to just one decimal point, all are within a statistical tie.

    Adults 18-34 (generates more revenue then adults 18-49)

    Hart of Dixie
    .6
    90210
    .567
    Beauty & the Beast
    .5

    W 18-34 (I only have the full fall m 18-34 numbers, unlike weekly w 18-34).
    HArt of Dixie
    .9
    90210
    .867
    Beauty & the Beast
    .733

    Even with DVR Hart of Dixie is viewed by more adults 18-49, while Beauty & the Beast has dropped enough to just be tying 90210 for the last three weeks of originals (it could even be worse, I am giving Beauty & the Beast the best possible numbers and assuming they would appear 26 on list, and using the last percentage of the list a base for its numbers. It actually could be worse.

    While there are other elements that do generate some income, we NEVER get to see those results. Producers of individual shows are always going to use language to help bolster their image. And remember when you think well the show I like is going to have revenue from these other sources, remember so are all the other shows your show is in competition with for a new pick up.

    Network heads, also will never, say anything that would give the impression that a show is going to be cancelled. Until its time to cancel them (and usually thats just be not mentioning them anymore.

    For an example ABC’s network boss just talked about how two of his programs are really engaging viewers and are water cooler shows. Those shows are so dead, that it isn’t even funny. They have hit under 1.0 (in fact .8’s) and for the main networks that the kiss of death.

    Awards also generally don’t matter one iota, except as free publicity (and if they don’t help improve viewing then it’s wasted publicity). The exception to this rule is either major, major critical acclaim, across the board, or winning major, category’s in EMMYs. Things like Best Drama, or Best Comedy of the year, might help save a bubble show. That will not be the case for any show that has ever, ever aired on the CW. The closest example t that type of show on the CW, was the first season of Veronica MArs, when it aired on UPN. It also didn’t hurt that the Network Head loved the show ( I mean really loved that show).

  • Alexis

    As a HUGE Nikita fan, I have to say that I’m not terribly fussed as to whether it get a fourth season. I have to see how the remainder of Season 3 plays out before I know if it makes any sense, storywise, to continue after that. I’m much more for quality than quantity, personally, so I’d rather the show had a short but excellent run than got dragged out forever and jumped the shark. In that sense, there’s a silver lining in the horrid ratings: there’s no danger of Nikita continuing pointlessly into Season 10 and becoming crap, as happens to many shows.

    That being said, here’s my CW prediction:
    Arrow, TVD and SPN are obviously locks for renewal.
    Nikita and HoD return, barring a *significant* drop in ratings (Nikita for syndication, HoD because it’s cheap to produce).
    9O21O gets a shortened final season.
    BatB will only survive if A) it stabilizes, B) Cult and The Carrie Diaries bomb (the series premiere for TCD didn’t do well, but we’ll see), and C) the pilot crop isn’t terribly promising.
    I’m inclined to believe TCD, which premiered low, won’t improve considerably and will get cancelled. Cult is a wildcard: I think it has a ton of potential and looks very interesting, but it’s high-concept and doesn’t look very friendly to CW audiences. I’ve already seen tons of comments about how the plot is too confusing (based on the freaking promo). People don’t take kindly to shows that require them to think and try to figure stuff out, as opposed to just following characters’ tangled love lives, I guess. Anyway, if I had to bet I’d say Cult’s a goner, but I’d love to be proven wrong.

  • chris23

    I hope CW gets a brain and does not use Hart of Dixie or any of the other low rated shows(outside of Arrow, Supernatural, VD) as a leadin for new series next year. the fantasy schedules are filled with hod as a leadin and I don’t understand why?

    I do understand CW will be hard to “guesstimate” which shows will be renewed and their are various options on which shows end up getting renewed such as : Cult a hit or miss?, Carrie improve from the premiere and if the low premiere was actually due to the pilot airing in 2 timeslots the same night, as well as the current CW lineup in how they perform in the Winter and Spring.

    Arrow, Supernatural, Vampire Diaries are locks for renewals. Others, including myself, could argue the fates and outcomes of their fave shows as well, but all shows are up in the air, nothing is guaranteed!

    My guesses for CW Lineup:

    TCD: bubble show TBD (I want to see how it will perform next monday in one timeslot only, not to mention another repeat after a new VD this week. Was the viewership low due to the pilot airing twice. Next week will be the real test for the freshman prequel series.

    CULT:TBD ( I hope CW promotes it properly, lots of commercials, guest appearances of daytime talk host shows and late night)

    Nikita: 4th Season seems likely b/c of the “syndication factor” if CW was willing to renew it for season 3 with these ratings, S4 is a definite yes!

    90210: Likely canceled I would say, however it is a bubble show in CW eyes. it will either get notice to wrap up storylines this season, or get a shortened season like gossip girl.

    HOD: I would say it is a likely renewal. But it is a bubble show. Don’t get me wrong HOD has below average ratings, however the show is cheap and I think it should get the Nikita treatment for S3 and S4 and ship it to Fridays. DO NOT USE THIS SHOW AS A LEADIN NEXT SEASON!!!

    BATB: Likely Cancelation. CW will say it is a bubble show. Unless ratings improve this spring than this show is canned. It will get the Secret Circle treatment.

    Personally for strategic purposes only I would schedule the shows like this:

    Pair Cult w/ Supernatural On mondays

    Pair Arrow w/ new series on WED

    Pair The Originals w/new series at 9

    Pair TVD w/ New Series at 9

    Pair HOD and Nikita on Fridays.

    IF Cult bombs then it is more likely 90210 will get a half season pickup and then CW would likely slate a few shows for Midseason.

    CW START PROMOTING in the MEDIA, get a word of mouth going, get on late night talk shows and daytime too, air the hell out of commercials, stand behind your shows to the fullest, get the network out of the gutter. No one will believe in this network if the network itself won’t even strategize. Ok I’m done this is wayyyyyy tooooooo long of a post lol :)

  • Jamie

    @Nick

    It can have a full season at mid-season. They’ve done it before with One Tree Hill.

  • Kate

    I don’t know it you have taken into account or not, or if it even matters, but I think at least for the producers it may mean something that at the people’s choice award, the show (not the actors) did actually won a price. This may have a pull towards renewal… dunno, we’ll see

  • TSCfan2013

    “Finally, kindly stop trying to deflect criticism of this ridiculous show onto TSC fans. The latter have nothing to do with the fact that B&B plummeted to a 0.6 rating in three episodes.”

    THIS. They need to stop, I have never said anything about BaTB, even though I think it’s bad, but I’m tired of seeing their fans accusing TSC fans of being bitter They need to accept the fact that people don’t like their show.

    “Well, I present you the ANNOYING Beauty and The Beast fans: delusional, defensive and preaching that that walking dead show is amazing. Ugh!”

    LOOOOL. They’re proving to be the worst indeed.

  • Bad Wolf

    Come on ! Fringe, Chuck, Grimm, Supernatural, Nikita, Vampire Diaries, 90210, Mentalist, Chuck, Arrow, Revenge, Scandal, Person of Interest, Hawaii 5-0… There are lots and lots of shows with annoying fans !
    The Beauty & The Beast fans are not worse than the others ! Before the final season announcement, Chuck fans were properly unbearable, full of pretension and arrogance. Beauty & The Beast fans still have a long way to go before reaching such a level of annoyance.

    Plus, grating fans are only a small part of any given fanbase. Fortunately, a vast majority of people have better things to do than bashing shows and people on a website !

    Come on people, it’s TV ! Your favorite show ending isn’t the end of the world ! Supernatural isn’t the best CW show ! (let alone the best TV show !) Neither is The Vampire Diaries ! Scandal is not better than Revenge… and Revenge is not better than Scandal ! 90210 doesn’t rightfully deserves a final season ! And the CW bosses can say whatever they want about Beauty & The Beast or Hart of Dixie, they’ll coldly cancel them for the sake of money if they want to !

    I’m surprised Bill and Robert still haven’t organized tournaments or showdowns to death between the most aggress… hem… vocal fanbases ! Too bad, the ratings posts are really interesting, I’ve been following them for about 5 years now, but why pushing people to show the worst side of themselves in the comments ? I guess, like for networks, it’s still a question of numbers and, at the end of the day, money…

  • zen

    “Well, I present you the ANNOYING Beauty and The Beast fans: delusional, defensive and preaching that that walking dead show is amazing. Ugh!” hahahhaha this hahhaha

  • Melanie

    I think HOD can breathe a sigh of relief at Carrie Diaries low premiere. If TCD was a ‘hit’ I think HOD would be a goner.

    90210 seems like a dead show walking to me — maybe it gets the short final season, which the CW can use in the fall or midseason as schedule spackle, or maybe it doesn’t.

    Pedowitz kinda compared BATB to TSC saying something about BATB having comparable ratings to TSC at this point — I wouldn’t think that comparing a bubble show to a cancelled show would be a good thing. But I think it reiterates that TSC’s ratings nosedive and failure to stabilize in the spring is what killed it. Yes, BTB dropped quicker than TSC but its been stable. If it remains stable, even if it does the spring time dip – it might have a chance to hang around.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Amanda: “I’m confused as to why you would say the series doesn’t have an overall arc, when the overall arc since the very beginning has always been Vincent and Catherine’s relationship & Vincent being a Beast and the issues that come with that.”

    This is not a “season arc” – it’s the basic premise of the show.

    And it’s clear from the ratings that this concept is not flying. There has to be more to a show about a “beast” and a babe than the love story. There has to be obstacles to that love story. And frankly, there aren’t any except very contrived ones, now that the whole issue of his being pursued by his creators has been dropped.

    ” – Who killed Catherine’s mother.
    – Why did they kill her mother.
    – How is Vincent and Catherine’s mother connected.
    – Now that they all know the above answers, does that mean there’s a cure to fix Vincent?
    – No there’s not, what does those this mean for Vincent?”

    All of which has either been dropped or ignored for filler about the relationship, not to mention the complete waste of time that the crime procedural plots are. The show should have focused on the conspiracy to create the Beasts and the subsequent conflict with those creators. This would have provided a tight focus on the problems of the Beast as well as the cop, and given a reason for the relationship to be difficult. Instead, the show has basically been a sophomoric romance with both parties being unable to act as adults regardless of Vincent’s condition.

    “…and before the break we learned that Vincent is becoming less and less human and more animal”

    That is too little, too late. The ratings have dropped enough to pretty much guarantee the show won’t be renewed, especially once the usual spring ratings drop hits.

    The fact remains that the show simply isn’t compelling. It’s trying to rely entirely on the basic premise of “beauty and the beast” – and that simply isn’t sufficient. The crime procedural aspect of the show is its biggest negative aspect as well.

    It’s not a horrible show like Revolution – which has massive and seriously stupid problems – but it’s just not that good, either.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Bill Gorman
    So, you based your prediction entirely on its spring decline?

  • gerry

    i think cw should start running shows, like TCD, in the summer to get them off the ground. historically, shows that did that years ago (original 90210/melrose) did well enough in the summer, right? less people watching, but also MUCH less competition, then pick up whatever worked in the summers right into the fall for a second season with a minimal break. might give some of their shows more of a shot.

    cancel 90210 now and just be done with it.

  • Bizarro

    If TCD somehow gets renewed it won’t have higher ratings than Hart and Beauty because they are both getting 0.6’s on a regular basis. TCD on the other hand, got a 0.6 for its premiere and both Hart and Beauty did way better when they premiered than TCD in demo. The CW is known for its shows to start falling after it premieres and have a few times out of the blue go above its premiere demo but since the CW isn’t promoting TCD like they did for its premiere it looks like the show might get a lower demo next week or it could go up a bit but I highly doubt it. TCD will air all its 13 episodes but another season is unlikely right now.

  • Amanda

    “You thought TSC fans were bitter?”
    Seeing how they won’t leave BATB related articles alone and keep trolling the BATB IMDB page, yes I do believe some (not all clearly) are not just bitter, but somewhat crazy.

    “Well, I present you the ANNOYING Beauty and The Beast fans: delusional, defensive and preaching that that walking dead show is amazing. Ugh!””

    The Walking Dead show is an amazing show, I agree! At least you got that right in that one sentence.

  • Amanda

    @TSCfan2013

    Read what you just wrote: “I have never said anything about BATB, even though I think it’s bad.”

    o_O

    I’m pretty sure if I had the power to track your IP on this site, I’m pretty sure that statement would had be false prior to your following words of– “I have never said anything about BATB…”

    “They’re proving to be the worst indeed.”

    When there’s an article with a poll poking fun as to how crazy BATB fans are on this site, then we can exchange notes on who’s truly bad. Actually, if you can find ONE post by a BATB fan on the IMDB forum trolling the TSC fans– I may consider what you’re saying.

  • Amanda

    @bad wolf

    “Beauty & The Beast fans still have a long way to go before reaching such a level of annoyance.”

    I honestly don’t know what those people (or same person under 1 user) means, since I’m the only BATB fans even disputing with anyone in this article’s comment section.

    I’m a fan.

  • cameron

    i had high hopes for amazon but if they cast that amy manson chick, im outtt. she doesn’t look the part at all. I was expecting Ashley greene, minka Kelly, or Sophia bush for the role and she doesn’t cut it

  • feinn

    @cameron
    High hopes? those are some terrible actresses you suggested…cw is best off with an unknown

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