CW: If 'The Carrie Diaries' Gets Renewed, What Additional Show Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Although last night's relatively weak start for The Carrie Diaries may make the question in the headline moot, this was already written, so go with it.
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Since it premiered just last night, The Carrie Diaries ratings haven't yet been incorporated into the table above or predictions yet, but with nothing happening last week on the CW save the burn off the the doomed Emily Owens, MD, it's worth posing the question:

If The Carrie Diaries gets renewed, what additional show gets canceled?

Yes, fans of 90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast, even before The Carrie Diaries premiered one of those shows was certain to be canceled, if The Carrie Diaries is renewed, another one will be as well.

But which one will it be? If you're trying to read the tea leaves of the latest remarks of CW Chief Mark Pedowitz, you have my sympathies.

I could make a reasonable argument for all three. 90210 gets its series wrap up this season instead of next. The CW can jettison Hart Of Dixie instead of being "albatrossed" with it for two more seasons (ala, Nikita). Beauty & The Beast was already top of the "next to cancel" list.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Savior

    Why choose just one to cancel? Beauty & the beast got abyssmal ratings so that would be my pick, but he gave good reasons for the other two. They need more shows like Supernatural and Arrow that guys can watch too.

  • JulieDawn

    @Savior

    What, do you live in the dark ages? I don’t remember ever seeing anything saying that men can’t watch the other shows….

  • omabin

    @Mark Wood,

    Can you please tell me where to find those 18-34 ratings you are talking about? I would like to have regular access to those! Thanks

    As for the rest, beauty and the beast is dead IMO. Carrie Diaries is not dead yet, but seems very unlikely. Cult is also likely dead. I would go with:

    Monday
    Hart of Dixie
    90210

    Tuesday
    The Selection
    Wonder Woman

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday
    Nikita
    Repeats or Cult if it makes it

  • James

    Heres my prediction:

    Monday
    90210 (final 13)
    hart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    The Tomorrow People (new)
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Amazon (new)

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals (new)

    Friday
    NIKITA
    The Beauty and The Beast

    MIDSEASON:
    Embrace (new)
    Meridian Hills (new)
    Cult (if renewed)

  • Kavyn

    I really hope for 2013-2014 the CW has nights where new shows are paired together. I don’t think the old show/new show thing worked well for them this year, considering Arrow was the only hyped show that did well out of the newbie shows. BTB premiered well but only because it was paired with TVD, who didn’t help at all.

    Obviously pair the Originals with TVD, keep Arrow/SPN, and then next year change things up. Put 90210 and ANTM together on Friday, move Nikita to Tuesday at 9 (ie the deathslot, which doesn’t matter anyways since it will be Nikita’s final season) with Amazon/Wonderwoman, whatever it’s called at 8pm. And then two new shows on Monday.

    I think The CW should also consider trying something different with a Summer/Fall schedule instead of Fall/Winter like other networks. HOD could do quite well in the summer since it feels like a summer show, and it could continue into the fall, leaving room for Cult or any other 13-episode order show for Winter.

  • feinn

    Great news for cw, josh schwartz’s flop empire production company is moving from wb to abc. So we may be rid of his awful shows soon.

  • PeterMazz

    @Bill One Question, if Josh Schwartz’s company is moving from WB to ABC, does that mean that The CW would have to cancel all their shows (Hart of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries, Cult) or at least find a new showrunner?? Thanks. :*

  • Tom

    The deal with ABC provides Schwartz and Savage with financing for their company’s production and development costs. Whatever production deals Fake Empire currently has with WB will stay in place.

  • andri

    Nevermore did I wantonly watch 90210.cw with your greatest music remixes denizens Cancel cancel cancel. No word yet on atp tyra bank’s. cancellation.

  • Nicole

    The CW is going to do whatever it wants.. its going to cancel the shows it doesnt like.. weather they perform good or not. They dont make real decisions.. if they like a show they will keep it even if it does bad if they dont like a show even if it does well they cancel it. If i even cared about any show on the network id be worried about SN or Arrow getting canned. So they can keep heart of dixie and all the other stupid bad shows.

  • Michael

    Beauty and the Beast is a goner. TVD is a loosely related companion show but next year we all know what show is going to be coupled with TVD. I don’t see where else they could put it(other than Friday nights with Nikita). I’m surprised that they didn’t pair HoD with The Carrie Diaries.

  • Tom

    Beauty and the Beast should be a goner, but it occupies that “chicks who can’t get dates” demo that may keep it around if nothing better pops up. I say this only because the CW seems to prize steady ratings regardless of how small they may be. We’ll know more once the Carrie Diaries airs a few more episodes and after Cult debuts. The Carrie Diaries handled some difficult subject matter pretty well. However, there didn’t seem to be too much interest in the show. Hopefully this will change.

  • Charmed

    I think TCD might get renewed, it’s repeat ratings were 0.5. I can’t see Cult doing great, so I think TCD will get renewed.

  • JulieDawn

    @Tom

    Geez negativity must be your middle name. It’s fine to have an opinion, and it’s fine if that opinion differs from mine or any others. But it’s completely unnecessary to use cruel, unfounded, borderline misogynistic remarks while giving it.

    It’s such a pity because a lot of your comments are well-written and well-thought-out. You just ruin your credibility by coming down on the lifestyle of certain fans, or the perceived talent of certain actresses, or whatever else you throw in to try and make your point. Completely unnecessary.

    (And to this particular comment abt the BATB demo…no doubt there are some fans such as you describe – even if it was a nasty way to say it – but I certainly don’t fit there, and neither do any of the other BATB fans I interact with online and, yes, even in real life!)

  • Alex

    I’m missing something. Is The CW in financial trouble that it can’t afford to keep the shows on the air that it has? Why would it need to cancel a show to keep Carrie Diaries on? If the CW is so tight for money it can’t keep them all going, that’s a bigger story and bring to mind when UPN and The WB were forced to merge, or when Fox had to cull a bunch of shows like Alien Nation back in its early days.

  • Anthony C.

    My 2013-2014 CW Schedule Prediction:

    MONDAYS:

    8PM- The Carrie Diaries
    9PM- 90210 (Final Season 10-13 episodes)/ Electropolis (New Series)

    TUESDAYS:

    8PM- Sleepy Hollow (New Series)
    9PM- Supernatural

    WEDNESDAYS:

    8PM- Arrow
    9PM- The Tomorrow People (New Series)

    THURSDAYS:

    8PM- The Vampire Diaries
    9PM- Embrace (New Series)

    FRIDAYS:

    8PM- Hart Of Dixie
    9PM- Nikita

    MIDSEASON:

    Sherwood (New Series)
    The Selection (New Series)

    Unless The CW can make The Originals show something completely different and unique, I don’t see it making it pass the backdoor pilot that was ordered. People already watch another show about voodoo and vampires in louisiana. I’ll make real judgment when the BDP airs later this season.

    I’m just not feeling the idea of Amazon. It’s just not a show I feel many people would be rushing home to watch or save space on their DVR for. I’m sure there are many more far better female superheros in marvels canon that would be more interesting if given a chance at a wider audience by being developed into a tv show.

  • JulieDawn

    @Alex
    Money is one thing, sure, but more importantly The CW has limited airtime – just 2hrs a night only Mon-Fri. Obviously they want to try out new shows next fall that just might do better for them than something they have on now. That means clearing some of the deadwood out of the way to fit them in.
    Of course they have to weigh that against the potential that their existing programmes my have as well. And no doubt they will make some decisions they will regret, and others that fans will scream bloody murder about. A thankless task that’s really not much more than a glorified guessing game!

  • Anthony C.

    ^^^
    Sorry… DC Comics.

  • Kissan

    I think TCD will get renewed. I know they premiered low with 1.61 million viewers, but it’s getting great responses from critics and their repeat on Thursday had a 0.5 and 1.13 million viewers after an all new TVD. I watched the pilot and it was surprisingly good. I think it could surprise us on Monday. I also think it will bring 90210′s ratings up JUST A LITTLE to make it get a final 10 episode season next year. Cult is premiering on Tuesday at 9, which is a death slot for the CW and after HOD which is bad so I think it will get cancelled. HOD has had steady ratings this whole season and if it were between BATB and HOD I would go with HOD. HOD is going against the toughest shows on television and is leading off the night. BATB has TVD as a lead in and is getting 0.6 and sometimes gets beat by HOD.

    2013-2014 Fantasy Schedule

    Monday

    8:00-The Carrie Diaries
    9:00-Hart Of Dixie

    Tuesday

    8:00-Amazon(new)
    9:00-Supernatural

    Wednesday

    8:00-Arrow
    9:00-The Selection(new)

    Thursday

    8:00-The Vampire Diaries
    9:00-The Originals(new)

    Friday

    8:00-Nikita(full final season)
    9:00-90210(10 ep. final season) Midseason:ANTM

  • Oliver

    The CW should avoid oversaturating genre action shows to prevent making the same mistake as they did with teen soaps. A network needs variety to succeed. I’d love to see the network bring back comedies and black-oriented shows (or black-oriented comedies, since Everybody Hates Chris is still in syndication and The Game does well for BET).

    I predict Supernatural is moved back to Friday next season. It would boost Nikita and clear out the post-Arrow slot to launch a new show. It’s also one less timeslot for the network to worry about.

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