CW: If 'The Carrie Diaries' Gets Renewed, What Additional Show Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Although last night's relatively weak start for The Carrie Diaries may make the question in the headline moot, this was already written, so go with it.
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Since it premiered just last night, The Carrie Diaries ratings haven't yet been incorporated into the table above or predictions yet, but with nothing happening last week on the CW save the burn off the the doomed Emily Owens, MD, it's worth posing the question:

If The Carrie Diaries gets renewed, what additional show gets canceled?

Yes, fans of 90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast, even before The Carrie Diaries premiered one of those shows was certain to be canceled, if The Carrie Diaries is renewed, another one will be as well.

But which one will it be? If you're trying to read the tea leaves of the latest remarks of CW Chief Mark Pedowitz, you have my sympathies.

I could make a reasonable argument for all three. 90210 gets its series wrap up this season instead of next. The CW can jettison Hart Of Dixie instead of being "albatrossed" with it for two more seasons (ala, Nikita). Beauty & The Beast was already top of the "next to cancel" list.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Anthony C.

    @oliver
    Supernatural won’t be going back to fridays. Why would you send your 3rd highest rated show back to a night that is all but dead. Comedies aren’t coming back either. The network needs to stabilize it’s schedule before it takes on any comedies.

    @kissan
    The only Issues I have with your schedule is Hart of Dixie isn’t an 9pm show, 90210 won’t move to fridays for a final season and antm has been moved to summer.

  • Oliver

    @Anthony C

    Because The CW should keep Mon-Tues for non-genre shows and it’s wasting an Arrow lead-in it doesn’t need. Supernatural would do well on Friday and prop up Nikita.

  • Anthony C.

    @Oliver

    Last season Supernatural was paired with Nikita on fridays and it did nothing for Nikita. Supernatural was pulling in mostly 0.6-0.7 on fridays They moved Supernatural to wednesdays and it’s grown retaining most of Arrow’s audience pulling in between 0.8-1.0. The only thing that’s best for supernatural is keeping it where it is or shipping it to tuesday to prop a new series.

  • Brandy

    @Oliver, SPN would have to be at 8,Nikita at 9 to help it and SPN is a 9pm show due to violence/gore and Nikita will be staying at 8pm after its ratings fell Futher at 9pm.Plus, SPN didn’t help Nikita last year as its lead out ,SPN fans didn’t tune in early for Nikita like they do for Arrow.SPN started fall 2011 with 0.8-0.9 while Nikita got 0.6s but in spring when Nikita got 0.4s,SPN got 0.6s so that pairing didn’t wok.

  • Eddy

    I hope Supernatural gets renewed, I don’t care about the rest. Supernatural is the only reason I watch the CW.

  • AAA

    @Eddy:Same here. I’ve started watch Arrow just to give it a try (since it’s in pair with SPN), but I dropped it by now. Another superhero out of the spoiled rich kid story. Been there, done that. So my point is: not everybody watches SPN because of Arrow, but many started to watch Arrow because of SPN what does make since. Arrow is new, and SPN is 150+ episodes old.No one is going to start watching something “150+episodes later” just to give it a try. Too late. That’s why there is a difference in total viewers, and this entire “retention” thing sounds kind of silly in this particular case.
    Anyway, best wishes for Arrow and CD and Cult.I am not a CD-type person, so can’t comment here. Cult seems interesting and promising, will certainly give it a shot. I would be really worried about BTB if I am a fan. Seems like coming Cult can overpower this love story fairytale.

  • Deeann

    I like TBATB. Or at least its growing on me!

  • Benjamin Elliott

    Just a thought for CW and Nikita.

    Presumably there are pressures to get Nikita to 88 episodes, which would be 21 episodes beyond the current season 3 order.

    CW has several bubble shows with higher in season ratings than Nikita all fighting to see who goes to next season.

    CW has a desperate need to build its Summer lineup.

    The needs for any one Summer would be less than 21 episodes.

    Now, how about this idea:
    The CW announces 2 Summer Nikita seasons, as their next step towards year-round programming. The first Summer season to be prepped for this year (Summer 2013) for at least 8 episodes. The second Summer season to be prepped for next year (Summer 2014) for at least 13 episodes – final number to be decided by the Summer 2013 ratings, and Summer 2014 can be a “final season” if needed.

    If the actors stay at work past the end of the current season 3 production block, it should be possible to get 8 more episodes ready by this summer. They can then have their full summer vacation (a bit late) before filming the (last?) 13.

    If the CW had a public plan for 2 summer seasons, they would also have the option to move the final episodes from season 3 to the Summer 2013 run if necessary (either for ratings or because there are only so many weeks left in the season and CW’s airing the episodes a tad slowly). At this point in the season, it would be possible to alert the writers in time that episodes would be moved, and for cliffhangers to be put in the appropriate places.

    Now, this plan gives CW new episodes of a show that already repeats decently in the summer for 2 summers, moves the show off the regular season faster, and opens a time slot so CW can keep any of this season’s shows that are promising. It gets more episodes ready for the international market early. And it means that the commercial arm can sell 5 season boxsets instead of 4. And if Nikita does well enough as a summer show to justify running past 88 episodes, then it gives a blueprint to give life to more shows that aren’t massive hits but have audiences.

    I also think a Summer 2013 run could be an option for a “final season” of 90210. CW has enough summer holes. Indeed, there is enough summer space that you could rush final 1 episode or 2 hour films for any cancelled shows into production for the summer to give fans resolution and make shows more saleable overseas and on Blu-Ray/DVD.

  • Anthony C.

    @Benjamin Elliot

    Nikita is struggling as it is. In order for it to be renewed for a 4th season it’s budget would probably be slashed and it’s already on a shoestring budget as it is now. it needs the fall season because folks are bearly watching as it is and it doesn’t have the luxury nor ratings to afford even one more fall season let alone two short seasons. One and done get it over with and off the schedule.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Oliver
    The CW didn’t “oversaturate” with the rich kid soaps; it flat-out failed with them. There’s a difference. There is no reason for the network not to create more comics and dark fantasy/horror shows when its only indisputable hits have been in those two categories. In fact, they should have done it sooner.

    And there’s no way in hell Supernatural is moving back to Fridays with its current ratings. As for Nikita, nothing can stop it from failing at this point. It doesn’t pair well with anything; it can’t keep its audience in any slot; its demos stink. The only thing keeping it from doing a third-season Life Unexpected is the syndication factor. If it does survive to a fourth and final season, expect slash-and-burn budgeting and unusual (to put it kindly) scheduling burnoff.

    @AAA
    Not true. Shows that go to an eighth season and beyond are quite rare, but one thing that seems to help all of them is when they go into syndication roundabout season five. Having episodes out on DVD also helps immensely. Much, possibly even most, of Supernatural’s current audience didn’t start watching until after season five aired. They simply caught up via syndication and DVDs. Some people prefer to do that.

    Some long-running shows, by the simple virtue of having been around for nearly a decade, create a sort of buzz around themselves whereby some fans start watching just because they’re curious about that longevity.

  • AAA

    @thesnowleopard “some fans start watching just because they’re curious about that longevity”
    Partly true. But it’s equally scares people away because of 7+season’s long commitment. Takes long time to catch up.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    As for people joining Supernatural late, that’s what I did. I didn’t come in until season six, I think it was. I didn’t even bother to catch up, either. I still haven’t watched the early seasons. So I guess I fit with those fans who started watching because of the buzz.

    I’m not so sure Nikita will get weird scheduling for season four. If that were likely, it would have been done this season (although it did start late and is only up to episode seven at this point where most shows are at 10 or 11. Ratings were bad enough in season two that all these predictions for season four should have happened in season three, but they didn’t.

    If Nikita’s scheduling is altered next season, it’s likely because they are overriding concerns about new shows. The existing shows aren’t likely to be shifted much because the ones that are doing well are doing well where they are. The ones that aren’t are going away. New shows will have to be slotted pretty much where the new shows were this season. I think the CW’s lead-ins weren’t terribly effective as lead-ins last season or this season, and probably won’t be next season. TVD didn’t help TSC, for example, despite the very close connection between those two shows. So I don’t think there is an overriding concern to get Nikita off the Friday schedule, which is the “dead night” anyway. Moving a “hit” like Arrow to Fridays, for example, is unlikely. Moving Supernatural back to Friday is probably useless as well.

    As for Nikita’s budget, who knows what that actually is? I doubt anyone does. Quality-wise, whatever that budget is it hasn’t affected it. other than I perceive a lessening of location shooting so far this season.

    I think Nikita’s budget has been set for season three and four when the deal was made last spring. The CW and WB very likely made a two-season deal and all the details were set then. They’re not stupid – they could expect Nikita’s ratings to be where they are today back then. So it’s no surprise that Nikita is doing .4. That’s only a tenth of a point below the .5 they were doing end of last season. So I doubt there will be much “budget-slashing.”

  • AAA

    Nikita thing: I am planning to give Nikita a try just because of all this buzz. Seems like people either love it or hate it. And every CW thread is full of Nikita posters. Makes you wonder, ha.

  • DougF

    Let’s all be fair Supernatural should have never went to Friday. It was the only show that has worked with Vampire Diaries. 3 shows 3 failures since

  • Ryann

    Monday – 8pm – 90210 (13 episodes) Embrace, 9pm – Hart of Dixie
    Tuesday – Sleepy Hollow, Supernatural
    Wednesday – Arrow, Amazon
    Thursday – The Vampire Diaries, The Originals
    Friday – Nikita, Cult

  • June

    AAA, I would highly recommend watching Nikita. It’s well written and decently acted, unfortunately it just has terrible ratings. You will see why fans are very passionate about this show.

  • Jared

    I think more people are watching Beauty & the Beast than what the overnight ratings are suggesting. I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets renewed for a second season.

  • lisa

    Its a shame theres so many limited timeslots, since they dont program at 10pm or sunday. Theres only 8 spots free for prgramming not including fridays. They should split up seasons to blocks of 10/12, and air another tv show inbetween.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    AAA: I second your trying out Nikita. Keep in mind it’s a very serial show, though, so you may have some catching up to do in terms of who’s related to who and why. Still, it’s not that hard to just drop in and keep going since it’s primarily an action show. And it’s been less serial this season (so far) than it was in the first two.

    The three leads are well cast and work well together, and Melinda Clarke is a delicious – and hot – villain, almost as good as Xander Berkeley was in the first two seasons. Aaron Stanford is superb as the “resident nerd” and comic relief Birkhoff. Other characters aren’t that compelling, although Devon Sawa as Owen is interesting. Everyone is a reasonably competent actor, although no Emmy winners. There are well-done emotional scenes.

    The action scenes are very well done, especially the fight scenes which are brilliantly choreographed. The episode pace is good. The overall season story arc usually proceeds at a decent pace, although this season seems a bit slower (although we’re only up to episode 7 which may be why).

    In general, as action shows go, I’d call this the best on the air at the moment with the possible exception of Strike Back on Cinemax.

  • Billie

    I think that from what I’ve read and seen it’s pretty obvious what shows will be cancelled and which will be renewed. We know that TVD, supernatural, ANTM, arrow, and possibly Nikita will be renewed. The reason I say Nikita is because it’s so close to syndication (88 episodes) I see nikita atleast getting a season 5 because once they get the syndication for 88 episodes, they’ll be super close for the 100 episode reward, so Nikita may be around for a couple more years.

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