CW: If 'The Carrie Diaries' Gets Renewed, What Additional Show Gets Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Emily Owens, M.D. canceled 1.00
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) pending
90210 :| :| :| pending
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| pending
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| pending
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

-
Although last night's relatively weak start for The Carrie Diaries may make the question in the headline moot, this was already written, so go with it.
-
Since it premiered just last night, The Carrie Diaries ratings haven't yet been incorporated into the table above or predictions yet, but with nothing happening last week on the CW save the burn off the the doomed Emily Owens, MD, it's worth posing the question:

If The Carrie Diaries gets renewed, what additional show gets canceled?

Yes, fans of 90210, Hart Of Dixie, Beauty & The Beast, even before The Carrie Diaries premiered one of those shows was certain to be canceled, if The Carrie Diaries is renewed, another one will be as well.

But which one will it be? If you're trying to read the tea leaves of the latest remarks of CW Chief Mark Pedowitz, you have my sympathies.

I could make a reasonable argument for all three. 90210 gets its series wrap up this season instead of next. The CW can jettison Hart Of Dixie instead of being "albatrossed" with it for two more seasons (ala, Nikita). Beauty & The Beast was already top of the "next to cancel" list.

How can Nikita with the lowest ratings on the network be "likely to be renewed"? The pull of a fourth season for syndication purposes is one of the strongest forces in the TV universe. Read more about it here.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Billie

    I think that from what I’ve read and seen it’s pretty obvious what shows will be cancelled and which will be renewed. We know that TVD, supernatural, ANTM, arrow, and possibly Nikita will be renewed. The reason I say Nikita is because it’s so close to syndication (88 episodes) I see nikita atleast getting a season 5 because once they get the syndication for 88 episodes, they’ll be super close for the 100 episode reward, so Nikita may be around for a couple more years.
    The vampire diaries is the highest rated show on their channel, so that’s not going anywhere. I see that show going for atleast another three or four seasons, maybe more.
    Supernatural will be renewed for another season, and it’s most likely going to be a full season. I see it ending in season 10 or 11
    Arrow is by far the most higly rated of all the freshman shows this season. So I see it getting a season 2

    A month ago I would’ve said that 90210 would be renewed for a short final season, but it’s been picking up quite a bit, and I see a full season in its future, and then maybe a short seventh season.

    America’s next top model will be renewed in an endless parade of horrible judgement. This show may be terribly rated, but it costs next to nothing to make, so it will continue to air.

    Emily owens has already been cancelled thank God

    Beauty and the beast is probably going to be renewed, unless TCD gets renewed. it’s a toss up between those two, but I think they will end HOD after this year. Cult hasn’t premeired yet, so there’s no way to tell, but this is my suspected schedule for next year

    Monday
    The selection *NEW*
    90210

    Tuesday
    Beauty and the beast (or a new show)
    Cult

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thursday
    The vampire diaries
    The originals *NEW*

    Friday
    Nikita
    ANTM
    Like I said I may be wrong, but according to everything I’ve read this is what I presume.

  • Chris

    B&TB will not go. It won favorite new drama at the People’s Choice Awards. I think it’s a bit of a sleeper. CW will put it through at least to season two.

  • Claudia

    There are fans for every show in the CW, the only thing I can tell you right now, is that BATB will be a shocker, it made more fans during the hiatus than in the 3 first months of airing live episodes, you all be suprised at the ratings when this show comes back on the 24th, anticipation was building for old and all new fans!!!!!!

  • herpderp

    Mondays
    7pm- Hart of Dixie
    8pm- 90210 (13 ep final season)

    Tuesdays
    7pm- Amazon
    8pm- Sleepy Hollow

    Wednesdays
    7pm- Arrow
    8pm- Supernatural

    Thursdays
    7pm- The Vampire Diaries
    8pm- The Originals

    Fridays
    7pm- Nikita
    8pm- Beauty & the Beast

    Midseason
    The Selection
    The Hundred

  • Mi

    @Claudia don’t hold your breath lol, it won’t do better than 0.6 this Thursday.

    TCD dropped in the overnight households ratings and most likely the 18-49 ratings too. I think it’ll be cancelled for sure and can’t say I’m surprised..

  • Tron

    TCD will be cancelled dont get why anyone even thought it even had a chance. These kind of shows just dont get good ratings, especially these days. They limit their audience to teen girls,

    BATB and HD damn as much as I hate both seem likely to be renewed. I’m kind of curious about Cult but lets face it its premise is weak and weird, its a likely DOA case too.

  • Tron

    *HOD*

  • cameron

    isn’t there supposed to be a new update today? I thought every Tuesday a new update page was put up?

  • Restless

    @cameron
    It’ll be up tomorrow, it’s delayed because of the holiday (Martin Luther King Day).
    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2013/01/21/mlk-holiday-ratings-delays-2/165903/

  • Dude

    The Carrie Diaries will not be renewed. It just won’t. I don’t see Cult being renewed either so lets focus in on the fall shows. They only have one slot free at the moment (if you include ANTM) so they’ll definitely cancel at least one show (possibly two if they have a strong development season).

    I think both Nikita and 90210 will get final seasons. Nikita’s because of syndication and 90210 because Pedowitz seems high on closure and doing a service for fans of his programming. That leaves Beauty and the Beast and Hart of Dixie. My best guess is that Beauty and the Beast will get cancelled and 90210’s final season will be pushed off for the summer if they don’t give them advanced word this season and allow them to end things properly.

  • Angellica .T.

    they have already said that hart of dixie ,beauty and the beast or 90210 might get cancelled

  • MEAGAN

    I really wish they would stop cancelling shows that I really like… why must you cancel Emily Owens md… sooooooo not right. I think the network should really reconsider cancellation, bring back EMILY OWENS MD…. I LOVED THAT SHOW AND VERY MUCH DISLIKE HOW THIS SEASON FINISHED!!!! DEFINITIVELY NEED ANOTHER ONE COME ON!!!!!!!

  • yassy

    please don’t cancel The Carrie Diaries I REALLY, REALLY LOVE that show!!! it will break my heart into pieces if they do :( lol </3

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures