NBC: 'Deception' Falls To A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
The New Normal :| :| :| 0.72
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.83
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
30 Rock final season 0.83
Whitney :| :| :| 0.89
1600 Penn :) :) :) :) 0.89
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Deception :| :| :| 1.11
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
The Office final season 1.22
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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While the ratings for last night's second episode of Deception aren't in the calculations above, they are nevertheless in my mind as far as predictions go. For that reason, the Deception has now fallen to a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. Early in a show's life predictions can change quickly, stay tuned.

NBC's sitcoms are a low rated junkpile at this point. I was tempted to push them all to "toss up", but instead I've simply moderated all the predictions. No more "certain renewal" or "certain cancellation" for now. Next week will likely see more revisions.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Oliver

    Why does 1600 Penn get “likely renewal” while Deception gets “toss-up”?

  • STEVEN

    i actaully have been enjoying deception

  • Oliver

    Also, it’s really entertaining to see the show second from top become third from bottom.

    Oh, retention. Networks might systemically underestimate your effects and Gorman may mock, but it’s a real phenomenon.

  • SarahL

    Aww, I like Deception. We’ll see how it goes.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Why does 1600 Penn get “likely renewal” while Deception gets “toss-up”?”

    It’s reasonable to guess that this week’s 1600 Penn rating will drop the prediction (although I don’t anticipate future ratings), but for last week, it was NBC’s top rated sitcom other than The Office!

    “Oh, retention. Networks might systemically underestimate your effects and Gorman may mock, but it’s a real phenomenon.”

    I mock its use as a predictive factor in renewals and cancellations.

    Could one reasonably guess that Go On and The New Normal ratings would fall in 2013? Of course. I just don’t guess based on possible future ratings, and never have. Feel free to guess however you see fit.

  • Dan

    Its too early to tell for NBC sitcoms

    The only thing I can likely say is that Go On, The New Normal, and Parks and Rec will probably return next season. GWK and Whitney can go either way, 1600 Penn only aired a couple of eps, Community hasn’t premiered yet and The Office and 30 Rock are both ending.

    Go On, The New Normal will probably do better when The Voice returns and NBC will likely use those two to rebuild Thursdays next season along with Parks.

    The numbers for Deception don’t look good and with SVU, Grimm, Parenthood along with likely freshman dramas Revolution and Chicago Fire returning next year, Deception can easily be dumped.

  • Dan S

    Another drop by Deception & it’s done. If RVN was no good it’d be getting the same numbers so it’s not completely dependent on The Voice. Next season I expect it’ll be a 9pm tent pole show so NBC can try launching a new show after The Voice. IMHO 1600 was done after seeing the pilot & I don’t see any chance of that show surviving beyond its initial order. I’m looking forward to such promising shows waiting like Dracula, Hannibal & Crossbones that sounds like a lot of fun with Hugh Laurie as a pirate.

  • CenterGravity

    Cancel The New Normal, 1600 Penn, and Deception, renew the rest.

  • Wright

    Still patiently waiting for RVN and Grimm to return.

  • Fake Me Out

    @Bill Gorman
    “… but for last week, it was NBC’s top rated sitcom other than The Office!”

    Nothing like being damned by faint praise … it’s saying in this steaming pile of human waste we call NBC comedies this one is the second least stinky in the cesspool. Flush the lot, spend the bucks and get sole broadcast syndication rights to the Big Bang Theory and air that instead … other than CBS would never agree (short of a bazillion per episode deal) I bet NBC would easily double their comedy ratings.

    ymmv

  • Rebecca

    I’m ready for Whitney and UAN to end (though I do still watch them) and keep the rest of the shows.

  • Bob

    Guys with Kids MUST be renewed. I just wish it would give it a better timeslot…Friday maybe? I swear it is a great show. I wish it was on ABC and could be paired with The Middle. Oh well….Please NBC give it one more chance next season.

  • Charlie

    The latest episode of The New Normal was probably the most disappointing of them all. What’s worse: it was written by Ryan Muprhy, which doesn’t make sense, because he is usually funny. Guess he wrote it on a bad day. Anyway, The New Normal has an amazing cast and a large potential but the stories are just not funny. The first two episodes were a sitcom, and it was kinda funny. The following episodes turned out to be a political commercial. And the latest episode was just not funny or interesting in spite of Matt Bomer’s abs. I mean, why not pay a little more for better writers?

  • Mark

    @Charlie It’s not just the writers, it’s the stories they do. This should be David and Brian’s show, not one with an ensemble cast. Barkin and NeNe and everyone else are great but everyone should be recurring except the main couple. Most episodes don’t even revolve around them… Anyway, I second you that the main problem are the writers (and hence, their stories). How can Justin Bartha look funnier in National Treasure than he does on The New Normal? I hope they improve the quality of the episodes soon (if there’s any left to shot) or I’m not sure NBC will renew it.

  • JulieDawn

    Just love seeing those 5 green smilies next to Chicago Fire. Hope it stays that way.

    On the other hand, I’m not feeling as comfortable as I did about Go On earlier in the season. Although I really enjoyed it at first, it seems to be slipping towards the ‘silly’ side of things which doesn’t appeal so much to me, and the ratings haven’t stayed as consistent as I hoped either. Still, we’ll see, and I’m not giving up on it yet.

  • Mico

    Any predictions for next seasons schedule?

  • Joe

    NBC’s sitcoms are a complicated predictions this year…here’s what I think:

    First off, Go On is getting renewed, even if it drops to a 1.2 (which it certainly could at this point!). There’s no way NBC admits their big Matthew Perry flagship comedy is a failure, and its ratings will rise again when The Voice returns, so NBC will at least be able to pretend it’s doing well, even though the Voice-less weeks have revealed it’s a very weak show.

    I think The New Normal might get a Whitney-esque 13-episode timeslot filler renewal, but I think a full second season renewal isn’t looking likely at this point.

    One of NBC’s multi-cams (including Up All Night) will be renewed, because they seem to want to keep going in that direction even though it’s yet to work for them. Right now, it’s looking like Whitney.

    Parks & Rec will be renewed because they need at least one veteran sitcom on the schedule next year, and the ratings are decent enough that it’s a viable choice. If Community returns to ratings at a 1.4 or above, it’ll also be renewed. If it comes back to 30 Rock-esque 1.1/1.2 ratings, it won’t be.

  • Nick

    What NBC should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: The Voice/ The Biggest Loser
    10: The Eleventh Commandment (new)

    Tue-
    8: The Voice
    9: Untitled Cee Lo Green Project (new)
    9:30: The New Normal
    10: Untitled Cuaron & Friedman Project (new)

    Wed-
    8: Parenthood
    9: Revolution
    10: Family Affair (new)

    Thu-
    8: Parks & Recreation
    8:30: Go On
    9: Untitled Michael J. Fox project (new)
    9:30: Untitled Peter Murrieta Project (new)
    10: Law & Order: SVU

    Fri-
    8: Dateline
    9: Grimm
    10: Dracula (new)

    Sat-
    8: Untitled MJF project (R)
    8:30: Untitled Cee Lo Green Project (R)
    9: Family Affair (R)
    10: Law & Order: SVU (R)

    Sun- (midseason)
    7: Dateline NBC
    8: The Celebrity Apprentice
    10: Chicago Fire

    Midseason- Community, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers

  • disney rocks

    NBC Sitcom renews////cancelled-

    What they should do-

    renewed-

    -go on
    -parks and rec
    -Whitney
    -GWK

    Cancelled-

    -community
    -UAN

    Renewed/canceled-

    -TNN or 1600 Penn- one of these should be given a 13 episode second season for backup schedule spackle. Cancel the other one.

  • disney rocks

    From above-

    I change community from cancelled to TBA

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