NBC: 'Deception' Falls To A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
The New Normal :| :| :| 0.72
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.83
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
30 Rock final season 0.83
Whitney :| :| :| 0.89
1600 Penn :) :) :) :) 0.89
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Deception :| :| :| 1.11
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
The Office final season 1.22
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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While the ratings for last night's second episode of Deception aren't in the calculations above, they are nevertheless in my mind as far as predictions go. For that reason, the Deception has now fallen to a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. Early in a show's life predictions can change quickly, stay tuned.

NBC's sitcoms are a low rated junkpile at this point. I was tempted to push them all to "toss up", but instead I've simply moderated all the predictions. No more "certain renewal" or "certain cancellation" for now. Next week will likely see more revisions.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • CenterGravity

    Forgot about Up All Night. Cancel that.

  • Nevid

    My 2013-2014 fall schedule:

    Monday:
    8:00 The Voice/The Biggest Loser
    10:00 The Eleventh Commandment (New)

    Tuesday:
    8:00 The Voice
    9:00 Family Affair (New)
    10:00 Parenthood

    Wednesday:
    8:00 Chicago Fire
    9:00 Hannibal (New)
    10:00 Law and Order: SVU

    Thursday:
    8:00 Parks and Recreation
    8:30 Community
    9:00 Go On
    9:30 Untitled Michael J. Fox Project (New)
    10:00 Smash

    Friday:
    8:00 Revolution
    9:00 Grimm
    10:00 Dracula (New)

    – If Smash gets renewed, i think they should start giving it full seasons and put it at 10 after the comedies.
    -I also think they should reduce their comedies and start focusing on developing new dramas, which is what is working for them now.

  • bruce

    I think that 1600 Penn will be renewed . I believe that it is refreshing that there is a show that is free from profanity,sarcasm , ruddiness, sexual profiling and allows plain old fun type comedy to rule the day.

  • The End

    Revolution will be behind The Voice when renewed for the foreseeable future. Just saying.

    It won’t be on Friday, like >Nevid seems to want, nor will it be on Wednesday either.

    From what I understand, there’s a desire there for this show to succeed and be a success on the network, pending any kind of catastrophic loss of Nielsen viewers, I doubt anything will change.

  • Even Steven

    Start next season Fresh. Cancel all the low-rated comedies (Up All Night, Guys With Kids, 1600 Penn, Community) and if Deception is already a toss-up on its second airing, get rid of it as well.

    I think they should be developing new multi-cam comedies and procedural dramas to rival CBS more. Combine that formula with The Voice and NBC will become a ratings powerhouse!

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Deception is dead as a doornail. Put a fork in it. Two episodes and it’s nearly a disaster.

    Now if we can only get Revolution to die… Utter garbage.

  • Michael

    NBC’s Comedies is in a Pick 3/Pick 4 load of chaos.

    3 or 4 will survive….3 or 4 will not.

    The list is VERY confusing. Odds on favorite to survive would be Parks and Rec (given seniority). The other 6 could basically be put into a basement and play duck duck goose until we cut the list in half. Which side is which is anyone’s guess :S

    Given happy/Sad faces the likely 3 to be cancelled would be up all night, GWK, and The New Normal…which leaves Go On, 1600 Penn, and Whitney moving on. But in all honesty…this could move faster than Lindsey Lohan’s prison sentence.

    Hec if wouldn’t shock me if 5 of these shows are cut, and 2 new ones are made…leaving only 2 hours of comedy on NBC (All to thursday) and NBC goes 3/4 heavy on drama next season. Stranger things have happened.

  • Ray

    “Early in a show’s life predictions can change quickly, stay tuned.”

    Not true, Bill. We know that all it takes is one low growl from the TBTN Bear and a show is as good as canceled.

  • dragonfoxmem

    Up All Night has the change of direction on upcoming episodes, so if it gets worse, it will be definitely cancelled.

  • calob

    I could really see NBC picking up a bunch of genre shows for next season such as Believe, Midnight Mass, Hench, and the Josh Friedman Project

  • toadytoady

    Good to see SVU back on the “certain to be renewed” list.
    I never doubted it myself, though Im sure ratings will fluctuate over the rest of the season,depending on the competition.

  • B. Saget

    NBC needs to just cancel everything after this year and start over, they’re cranking out some serious trash minus The Office, 30 Rock and P&R and 2 of those are finished.

    RIP NBC

  • Sam

    @B. Saget: “Cancel everything” is exactly what they did this last year except for a few shows. They cannot do it again so soon. It is far more expensive to order new shows that may or may not improve the ratings. At this point, the failure are not the shows but the schedule. Everyone’s airing comedies on Tuesdays, and those on Thursdays are just not “big” enough to face TBBT and 2.5 Men. NBC needs to start planning better, that’s all. They have good material, it’s just bad scheduled.

  • Joel

    I don’t think NBC dumps all comedies. At 8:00 on Thursday is dead spot. So Parks and Recreation and 1600Penn(or Community) will fill this spot until TBBT will finally end.

    And Go on would not be gone because NBC put so much energy on this show given the fact it’s after NBC’s big hit The Voice.
    Go on will replace the office next fall. Meanwhile, The new normal would be more likely to be cancelled than Guys with Kids which has much wider viewer base than TNN. But TNN would do well at 9:30 on Thursday.

    Actually, Guys with Kids, Up All night and Whitney will have to be survived because they could build on viewers year after year. Especially, Guys with Kids and Up All night are Family Comedy like ABC’s The Middle and Neighbors – Mordern Family.

    NBC have to pair up with Guys with Kids/Up All night(or new family cam)/Parenthood block.

  • JohnC

    I finally saw the pilot and it was not bad. I would keep watching a few more episodes before I make up my mind

  • CoolRanchDoritos

    Renew it please. I’m really liking this show.

    PH has 1.00 & has green smilies but Deception has 1.11 & has unsure faces.

    I don’t care what gets canceled as long as its not Chicago Fire, Deception or Parenthood.

  • bigbrotherfan

    I think Chicago Fire will get a second season but NBC is gonna screw with it push out the date to like a November start date and give it 13-episodes like they did with Whitney.

  • Craig

    if Community isn’t renewed, i’ll be watching nothing on NBC. so many bad shows (The New Normal, Guys With Kids, Chicago Fire, 1600 Penn, Deception, Season 40 of SVU, Revolution). then again, we are talking about a network that couldn’t make Friday Night Lights a hit…

  • CenterGravity

    @Michael

    Dead:

    The New Normal
    1600 Penn
    Up All Night

    Alive:

    Go On
    Guys With Kids
    Whitney
    Parks & Recreation
    Community

  • JohnC

    I think NBC should learn from the experience with Chicago Fire. Give “Deception” time to find the footing.

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