NBC: 'Deception' Falls To A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

January 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
The New Normal :| :| :| 0.72
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.83
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
30 Rock final season 0.83
Whitney :| :| :| 0.89
1600 Penn :) :) :) :) 0.89
Parenthood :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Deception :| :| :| 1.11
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
The Office final season 1.22
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

While the ratings for last night's second episode of Deception aren't in the calculations above, they are nevertheless in my mind as far as predictions go. For that reason, the Deception has now fallen to a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. Early in a show's life predictions can change quickly, stay tuned.

NBC's sitcoms are a low rated junkpile at this point. I was tempted to push them all to "toss up", but instead I've simply moderated all the predictions. No more "certain renewal" or "certain cancellation" for now. Next week will likely see more revisions.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.


  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

  • Allen


    New Normal
    1600 Penn
    Guys With Kids
    Up All Night


    Parks and Rec (Syndication)
    Community (Syndication)
    Go On

  • Just Desserts

    haha. The AbNormal and GOON gets as much as Guys in ratings. That’s worse than The Neighbors. Looks like NBC spoke too soon when they called these two “hits”. I wonder what Revolution will get.

  • Oliver

    Goon and Parks will be renewed.

    Community/GWK/TNN/Whitney are bubble shows. It’s pretty close, but I lean towards Community and Whitney being renewed due to syndication. That said, I wouldn’t bet on it, especially since NBC execs can’t stand Commmunity and love TNN.

    1600P/UAN/Save Me will be cancelled.

  • WilburTheCat

    I’ve watched the first two episodes and am not very impressed.

    I think people are getting bored with these “mega-rich fantasy worlds” some of these shows are set in.

    Look at how well “Roseanne” did and now “The Middle” is repeating some of that success. Real people in funny but semi-realistic situations, not mega-millionaires in mansions and their phony drama.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    “the Josh Friedman Project”

    God forbid Friedman ever works on TV again after how he screwed up TSCC…

  • BL

    Though TNN and 1600 Penn for me should be on the bubble, I would rather have TNN over 1600 Penn anyday.

  • BxActor

    Deception better get better or ummmm

  • Jacob

    I can’t see 1600 Penn getting renewed it’s like a copy of 30 Rock except worse.

  • steven

    Parks and Rec and Community will probably be put on thursdays at 8 so they can worry bout 9 and after next season (which should be michael j fox, go on and chicago fire or after hours)

    for some reason i feel like they should put the office like comedies (or ones with that demographic) on wednesday at 8, since it could probably steal views from the middle maybe The Assistant and IQUIT (2 scripts)

    tuesdays should have family multi cams at 9 which means proably one of up all nigh tor guys with kids wil be saved followed by parenthood

    i’d get rid of the new normal, 1600 penn (unless it stays at 1.6-1.7), and one of up all night or guys with kids. whitney can be back up

  • James

    NBC Prediction

    The Voice
    Believe (new)

    The Voice
    Family Affair (new)

    The Eleventh Commandment (new)
    Chicago Fire

    Go On
    Michael J. Fox comedy (new)
    1600 Penn
    Parks & Rec.

    Dracula (new)

    I know four new dramas seems like a lot, but the dramas are working for the network!!!!

  • Peter Mazzilli

    I think that NBC’S next season schedule will be like this…
    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – New Show
    8:00 – The Voice
    9:00 – Parenthood/Smash
    10:00 – New show
    8:00 – SVU
    9:00 – New show
    10:00 – Chicago Fire
    8:00 – Go On
    8:30 – Michael J.Fox Comedy
    9:00 – The New Normal
    9:30 – Parks & Rec (Final Season)/Community (Final Season)
    10:00 – Deception
    8:00 – Grimm
    9:00 – Dracula/Hannibal
    10:00 – Dateline/Crossbones

    8:00 – Dateline (Begining January 2014)

    SMASH (16 Episodes)
    New comedy
    Do Not Harm
    Community (13 Episodes)
    Hannibal (13 Episodes)
    Crossbones (10 Episodes)

  • Kenny

    Cancel Whitney….and bring back Community!!!

  • mrgvs

    You know why people are through with Deception? It’s a retread of Harper’s Island, Alcatraz and Happy Town! The only thing missing is Sam Neill in the cast.

  • Mickey

    Yay for Chicago Fire’s Green Smilies!

  • Beth

    I am LOVING Deception!!! It is so good!!!! I pray they dont cancel it. It’s got GREAT actors. Mabye if they ditch another great show like Southland…TNT will pick it up and keep it going for 4 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    its a good show. watch it! : )

  • omabin

    I really think that NBC should cut back at least 1 comedy hour next season. Have the 4 hour block on Thursday if you may but then either give up on Wednesdays or on Tuesdays. This would mean that they would have room for 6 comedies on the schedule. However, it is almost guaranteed that at least 2 out of these will be new. This means that only 4 out of the 11 comedies airing on NBC this season will be there. IMO, these will be:
    – Parks and Recreation
    – Go On
    – Whitney
    – the 4th one is the trickiest to predict. I don’t think 1600 Penn will get it unless it really holds its ratings for dear life but between Community/Guys with Kids/The New Normal/Up All Night is really hard to say.

    Then, I think a 5th one will be renewed, possibly a 6th like they did this year with Whitney/Community, as a backup plan. I need to see more of community, up all night and 1600 penn ratings before guessing which ones these will be.

  • sofaspud

    I cannot believe that “Chicago Fire” is up for renewal. Good Lord, there’s better acting on “Days of Our Lives” with writing and plots equally atrocious. This must be some kind of favor to Wolf, but the bigger favor would be to put this turkey out of its misery and let it fade from memory. Whoever wrote that “Revolution” was utter trash was 100% spot on. I’m down to “The Office” (ending, just as well) and “Community” (on life support, unfortunately) on NBC and then I’m done with poop-filled peacock.

  • Mark

    Season averages: 1.85 in the demo with 4.83 million.

    Season average: 1.84 in the demo with 3.73 million.

    Season averages: 1.40 in the demo with 4.15 million.

    Season averages: 1.41 in the demo with 4.09 million.

    Do the maths.

  • Holly


    Do the reading.

    From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old” Fall predictions in the table.

  • Oliver

    Averages are misleading. When making renewal decisions, networks care how shows will perform next fall and by far the best predictor is the last few episodes of a season. How a show performed the previous fall is completely irrelevant.

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