I received an e-mail this week that said "I know it's called "Bubble Watch" but if the difference between the Renew/Cancel Index and the Bubble Watch is that you're willing to guess, why are their any shows on the bubble. You should guess them all!"
It's a fair question. I am a bit more willing to do some guessing about the future, but I am not into random guessing. I'm not any better at pulling rabbits out of magical hats than Bullwinkle!
There are educated guesses and there is flipping a coin. Currently I have 15 shows "on the bubble." Several of them are there only due to nuance i.e., I definitely see 1600 Penn and Carrie Diaries quickly sliding into likely cancellation territory, but am holding off judgment in the interest of more time/data points.
Sometimes shows really are true tossups, either due to the ratings, the situation, or both. I don't want to make guesses in those cases. I can make the educated guess that ABC would like its Friday comedies to perform better and would prefer they not get beaten by reruns of Shark Tank! But I have no insight into what ABC thinks about those ratings or, and somewhat importantly, how the advertising sales for those shows work (versus the better performing repeat of Shark Tank). Throw in that if the comedies could be shepherded along for four seasons, there's a syndication payday that's likely/traditionally a fair bit better than the syndication payday for Shark Tank and for me, it adds up to "tossup, I don't know and can't really guess which way it will go." That's different than what I'd do based on the ratings data alone -- of course I'd cancel them and air reruns of Shark Tank based on that!
Still, of the 15 shows currently on the bubble, I am at least somewhat comfortable about guessing about 60% of them. While I'm more comfortable guessing those shows, I am not comfortable about the accuracy of the guessing, which is why I don't make those guesses. Usually.
But today, since there's not much going on and I don't feel like writing the "C'mon people, of COURSE the Middle will be renewed, but the reason I have it as only a likely renewal is..." piece, here are my guesses about the 60% of bubble shows I'm at least somewhat comfortable about guessing. They are still on the bubble in the normal list, and since we're guessing, I'll guess by the end of the season those 60% will no longer be on the bubble.
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Sorry, Still On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||Sorry, Still On The Bubble|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||Canceled/No additional episodes ordered*|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Sorry, Still On The Bubble|
|90210||CW||Final 13 episode season|
|Carrie Diaries, The||CW||Canceled|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||Renewed|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||Canceled|
|The Mindy Project||Fox||Renewed|
|Deception||NBC||Sorry, Still On The Bubble|
|New Normal, The||NBC||Sorry, Still On The Bubble, but almost went canceled|
|Whitney||NBC||Sorry, Still On The Bubble|
*In terms of guessing my guess -- and it is just a guess -- is Cleveland doesn't get renewed, but I don't track how many episodes will be left over after this TV season and wouldn't count those remaining episodes as a renewal.
Feel free to make your own guesses in the comments, but remember, "Whitney should be canceled because I don't like it!!" is not...a guess.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Certain Cancellation|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||On The Bubble|
|The Good Wife||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Mentalist||CBS||On The Bubble|
|90210||CW||On The Bubble|
|Carrie Diaries, The||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Mindy Project||Fox||On The Bubble|
|1600 Penn||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Deception||NBC||On The Bubble|
|New Normal, The||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Go On||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey's Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|The Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Not Quite Renewed Yet, But a Certain Renewal|
|Private Practice||ABC||Canceled/Final Season|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final SeasonFinished|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|