I received an e-mail this week that said "I know it's called "Bubble Watch" but if the difference between the Renew/Cancel Index and the Bubble Watch is that you're willing to guess, why are their any shows on the bubble. You should guess them all!"
It's a fair question. I am a bit more willing to do some guessing about the future, but I am not into random guessing. I'm not any better at pulling rabbits out of magical hats than Bullwinkle!
There are educated guesses and there is flipping a coin. Currently I have 15 shows "on the bubble." Several of them are there only due to nuance i.e., I definitely see 1600 Penn and Carrie Diaries quickly sliding into likely cancellation territory, but am holding off judgment in the interest of more time/data points.
Sometimes shows really are true tossups, either due to the ratings, the situation, or both. I don't want to make guesses in those cases. I can make the educated guess that ABC would like its Friday comedies to perform better and would prefer they not get beaten by reruns of Shark Tank! But I have no insight into what ABC thinks about those ratings or, and somewhat importantly, how the advertising sales for those shows work (versus the better performing repeat of Shark Tank). Throw in that if the comedies could be shepherded along for four seasons, there's a syndication payday that's likely/traditionally a fair bit better than the syndication payday for Shark Tank and for me, it adds up to "tossup, I don't know and can't really guess which way it will go." That's different than what I'd do based on the ratings data alone -- of course I'd cancel them and air reruns of Shark Tank based on that!
Still, of the 15 shows currently on the bubble, I am at least somewhat comfortable about guessing about 60% of them. While I'm more comfortable guessing those shows, I am not comfortable about the accuracy of the guessing, which is why I don't make those guesses. Usually.
But today, since there's not much going on and I don't feel like writing the "C'mon people, of COURSE the Middle will be renewed, but the reason I have it as only a likely renewal is..." piece, here are my guesses about the 60% of bubble shows I'm at least somewhat comfortable about guessing. They are still on the bubble in the normal list, and since we're guessing, I'll guess by the end of the season those 60% will no longer be on the bubble.
| Last Man Standing | ABC | Sorry, Still On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | Sorry, Still On The Bubble |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | Canceled/No additional episodes ordered* |
| The Good Wife | CBS | Sorry, Still On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | Renewed |
| 90210 | CW | Final 13 episode season |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | Canceled |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | Renewed |
| Nikita | CW | Renewed |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | Canceled |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | Renewed |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Canceled |
| Deception | NBC | Sorry, Still On The Bubble |
| New Normal, The | NBC | Sorry, Still On The Bubble, but almost went canceled |
| Whitney | NBC | Sorry, Still On The Bubble |
*In terms of guessing my guess -- and it is just a guess -- is Cleveland doesn't get renewed, but I don't track how many episodes will be left over after this TV season and wouldn't count those remaining episodes as a renewal.
Feel free to make your own guesses in the comments, but remember, "Whitney should be canceled because I don't like it!!" is not...a guess.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
--
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| The Good Wife | CBS | On The Bubble |
| The Mentalist | CBS | On The Bubble |
| 90210 | CW | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Nikita | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| The Mindy Project | Fox | On The Bubble |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Deception | NBC | On The Bubble |
| New Normal, The | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| The Middle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Go On | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Arrow | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Supernatural | CW | Certain Renewal |
| The Vampire Diaries | CW | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Not Quite Renewed Yet, But a Certain Renewal |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Canceled/Final Season |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
June: From a 2010 article about Maggie Q:
“In Asia, Maggie Q inspires Justin Bieber–like frenzy, give or take a couple million more fans and even crazier paparazzi. When I get into a Toronto cab with a driver who happens to be from Hong Kong, I ask if he’s ever heard of Maggie Q. ‘Oh, yes!’ he says. ‘She is very famous in Hong Kong!’
In fact, one of the reasons she cites for coming to the US via Canada was the amount of paparazzi attention she was getting. It made it impossible for her to go to the store.
Plus I imagine movies like Mission: Impossible 3 and Live Free or Die Hard played well in Asia as well as the movies she made there under Jackie Chan’s tutelage. Plus having been a model who appeared on over 100 magazine covers before and after taking to acting.
america has become sports fanatics. If the CEOs of these major netowrks were smart they’d market on that much more. For example the fall of 2013 should be:
ABC
MONDAYS
8pm NFL
TUESDAYS
8pm Shark Tank
9pm Last Man Standing- half season
9:30 Malibu Country- half season
10pm Castle
WEDNESDAYS
8pm The Middle
8:30 Suburgatory
9pm Modern Family
9:30 NEW COMEDY
10pm Nashville
THURSDAYS
8pm Grey’s Anatomy
9pm NEW DRAMA
10pm Scandel
FRIDAYS
8pm What Would U Do- half season
9pm 20/20
SUNDAYS
7pm NFL run over
8pm AFHV
9pm Once…Time
10pm Revenge
Sports & reality shows seem to get the best ratings the majority of the time.
CBS
MONDAYS
8pm Mike & Molly
8:30 How…Mother
9pm Two & 1/2 Men
9:30 2 Broke Girls
10pm Vegas
TUESDAYS
8pm NCIS
9pm Elementary
10pm NEW DRAMA
WEDNESDAYS
8pm Survivor
9pm NCIS: LA
10pm NEW DRAMA
THURSDAYS
8pm Big Bang Theot
8:30 NEW COMEDY
9pm Person Of Interest
10pm NEW DRAMA
FRIDAYS
8pm Undercover Boss
9pm CSI
10pm Blue Bloods
SUNDAYS
7pm NFL run over
8pm 60min.
9pm Criminal Minds
10pm Mentalist
FOX
MONDAYS
8pm Bones
9pm Glee
TUESDAYS
8pm Raising Hope
8:30 NEW COMEDY
9pm New Girl
9:30 NEW COMEDY
WEDNESDAYS
8pm X Factor
THURSDAYS
8pm X Factor
9pm NEW DRAMA
FRIDAYS
8pm Take Me Out
9pm Kitchen Nightmares
SUNDAYS
7pm NFL
NBC
MONDAYS
8pm The Voice
10pm NEW DRAMA
TUESDAYS
8pm THE VOICE
9pm New Normal
9:30 1600 Penn
10pm Parenthood
WEDNESDAYS
8pm Off Their Rockers
9pm L&O: SVU
10pm Chicago Fire
THURSDAYS
8pm Go On
8:30 NEW COMEDY
9pm Parks & Recreation
9:30 NEW COMEDY
10pm Revolution
FRIDAYS
8pm Grimm
9pm Dateline
SUNDAYS
6pm NFL
Brandy: “Richard, Cougar Town wasn’t all that far from syndication ,was in season three and yet abc cancelled it, even Before it landed on TBS. So CW can just as easily cancel Nikita.”
I’ve already answered that. Cougar Town is NOT Nikita. There is no comparing shows for syndication any more than there is comparing them for ratings. Every show is unique. The only thing that matters is in a given network whether a show is doing better or worse than the others on that network. And that doesn’t apply to syndication where the rules and the markets and the economic calculations are totally different.
“You don’t have proof Nikitas been renewed for season four so you don’t know for sure CW made a two year deal for it.Unless you work at CW, provide proof.”
There simply was no reason to NOT make a two-year deal. Of course, WB might have done so, nothing is impossible. But it wouldn’t make much sense to put the show on for season three and then let the CW kill it before reaching syndication.
Of course, it’s possible that WB did the same thing they did with TSCC in October of 2008: pay the network to air it for one more season (or the back nine in the case of TSCC) and just HOPE that the ratings would improve enough to get a fourth season.
But that makes no sense because any idiot could see from the ratings at the end of season two that Nikita had NO chance of growing in season three. I can’t believe either WB or the CW would be that stupid.
“If the ratings go back to 0.2-0.3 this spring, that might too much for CW to handle for one more season, after all season three and last quarter of season had horrible ratings.Why would they keep renewing a show they don’t make money on?”
Are you just a broken record or don’t you bother thinking about this? Once again: If there was no reason to renew Nikita for season three – and based on ratings there was NOT – then what OTHER reason than syndication would WB have for getting a deal with the CW to get a season three? And what OTHER reason but a very low price for Nikita would the CW bother to renew it for season three? Which means BY DEFINITION that the CW is making money – or at least not losing money – even on the current ratings.
“Pedowitz is a fan”
Based on what? His public comments? Network heads are “fans” of all their shows until they cancel him. Nothing he says is even remotely relevant.
“It had already cancelled its limit of shows and couldn’t afford to put on six new shows.”
Then why didn’t they renew TSC? Its rating was higher than Nikita even at the end. And it was a new show with at least a slight possibility it could be overhauled and grow in a second season whereas Nikita was at the end of season two and had worse ratings?
“Probably Arrow and VD would do better than Nikita.”
That’s ridiculous. They aren’t going to put TVD on Friday and they would be very unlikely to put a new show they expected to do well on Friday like Arrow.
Sorry, your arguments remain pure speculation and with zero logic.
Robert or Bill: Another post ended up in the spam trap. You need to look at the spam filter, it is NOT behaving properly. I posted one before the one above and it disappeared.
Good to see Bullwinkle Moose is not forgotten.
For me, it remains to be seen whether or not Cougar Town would have been canceled by ABC. I know they did not want to renew it, but I am not sure they would not have done so regardless. I believe we could have seen it renewed for scheduling spackle or to be paired up with Happy Endings with the Bitch had TBS not stepped in. Of course they preferred to let it go… But the fact that it was saved does not tell us if it would indeed have been canceled had no other network bought it.
Beauty and the beast is one of the worst shows, even worse than Revolution. It begs to be cancelled.
lol @Jake yeah I’m soooo sure the reason all the networks don’t play the NFL is because they don’t want to.
Mad props for the Bullwinkle / “rabbit out of my hat” reference.
ABC Friday comedies will be renewed.
HoD will be cancelled.
my fault i should elaborate more:
MONDAYS ON ABC
8pm nfl / jan. DWTS
jan. 10pm new drama
TUESDAYS
8pm shark tank / jan. DWTS Results
9pm last man standing / How…Parents
9:30 malibu country / new comedy
10pm castle
WEDNESDAYS
8pm the middle
8:30 suburgatory
9pm modern family
9:30 new comedy
10pm nashville
THURSDAYS
8pm grey’s anatomy
9pm new drama
10pm revenge
FRIDAYS
8pm what…do / jan. shark tank
9pm 20/20
SUNDAYS
6pm NFL overrun
8pm AFHV
9pm Once…Time
10pm Scandel
I believe this would help ABC with their ratings problems.Have NFL on Monday nights that be a sure winner, and have it on a 2hours on Sun. evenings to compete with NBC. Plus put a new comedy behind the network’s biggest comedy modern family and the same with a new drama put it on behind grey’s anatomy so the new drama can achieve a lot of viewers.
CBS
MONDAYS
8pm Mike & Molly
8:30 how…mother
9pm 2 & 1/2 men
9:30 2 broke girls
10pm vegas
TUESDAYS
8pm ncis
9pm elementary
10pm new drama
WEDNESDAYS
8pm survivor
9pm ncis: la
10pm new drama
THURSDAYS
8pm Big Bang Theory
8:30 new comedy
9pm person of interest
10pm new drama
FRIDAYS
8pm Undercover boss
9pm csi
10pm blue bloods
SUNDAYS
6pm NFL overrun / jan. 7pm 60min
8pm 60min / jan. 8pm amazing race
9pm criminal minds
10pm mentalist.
This schedule will greatly help CBS get even more ratings. put on new dramas to follow the networks biggest hit dramas it will certainly bring a large audience to the new shows. And put a new comedy on behind BBT. that’ll bring that new comedy a great success.
FOX
MONDAYS
8pm Bones
9pm Glee
TUESDAYS
8pm Raising Hope
8:30 new comedy
9pm new girl
9:30 new comedy
WEDNESDAYS
8pm x factor
THURSDAYS
8pm x factor
9pm new drama
FRIDAYS
8pm take me out
9pm kitchen nightmares
SUNDAYS
6pm NFL /
in jan. / 7pm amer. dad
7:30 bob’s burgers
8pm simpsons
8:30 new cartoon
9pm family guy
9:30 new cartoon
NBC
MONDAYS
8pm Voice
10pm new drama
TUESDAYS
8pm Voice Results
9pm new normal
9:30 1600 penn
10pm parenthood
WEDNESDAYS
8pm fear factor
9pm l&o: svu
10pm revolution
THURSDAYS
8pm Go On
8:30 new comedy
9pm parks & recreation
9:30 new comedy
10pm chicago fire
FRIDAYS
8pm grimm
9pm dateline
SUNDAYS
6pm NFL / in jan. 7pm biggest loser
9pm celebrity apprentice
1600 Penn is gone, heh that didn’t take long.
@aok
No, not yet. Might be predicted here to be canceled but no announcement from NBC yet. 1600 Penn still airing on Thursdays. I see ABC took away a couple airings of A23 though, in favor of HE episodes airing instead.
@DeanW
“I’ll give you nine good reasons to Renew CSI: NY:
1) All the cast signed until Season 10.
2) It’s the highest rated Show on Friday for CBS.
3) If it goes Blue Bloods will fall (Remember what happened in the Fall when Made in Jersey was at 9).
4) It already has a syndication deal and more Episodes means more money for CBS.
5) The Show is owned by CBS but no The Mentalist.
6) It’s been on Friday for three years and it’s very stable.
7) It made more money than CSI: Miami last year so it’s probably making more money than The Mentalist, The Good Wife and Vegas.
8) It’s often #1 or #2 in its timeslot.
9) No other Show could get a 1.6 and almost 11 million viewers on the “death slot”.
I gave 9 reasons only because the Show is actually on its Ninth Season. I Hope CBS thinks the same things !”
You sir, are absolutely right. I still think CSI NY will get a tenth and final season from CBS.
I think ABC is more inclined to keep Malibu Country than Last man Standing even though the later is doing better. ABC at least ownes MC, thus if it actually does better next season and stays around a few years they will make lots of money when it goes into syndication. i think they will actually keep both, and probable try to rebot MC. IMO it has alot of potential with a cast like it has. I think over the last ten weeks it has gotten better every episode.
“Robert or Bill: Another post ended up in the spam trap. You need to look at the spam filter, it is NOT behaving properly. I posted one before the one above and it disappeared.”
I freed it. Again, no idea why it was trapped.
There is no “looking at the spam filter”. It is what it is.
Last Man Standing- A CLOSE Renewed
Malibu Country-Cancelled
Cleveland Show-Cancelled
1600 Penn-Cancelled
The Mentalist-Renewed
Deception-Cancelled
The Good Wife- A CLOSE Renewed
CSI:NY-Cancelled
Whitney – Anyone’s Guess,but leaning Cancelled
New Normal-Cancelled
Mindy Project- A CLOSE Renewed
Nikia- A CLOSE Renewed
Beauty and the Beast-Cancelled
90210- 13 Episode Final Season
Next Season Final Shows: HIMYM, Law and Order: SVU, 90210, The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-O (gonna be a hard 2013-14 for CBS).
@omabin
Agreed.
90210 will get renewed and so will dixie and carrie diaries!!
@Jake – The NFL will never again be on ABC. It is far too profitable for sister network ESPN for Disney to allow ABC to cannibalize that audience. The most I could see would be ESPN getting the rights to the Super Bowl, and it airing on simulcast with ABC. But even that is not likely.