Bubble Watch Waiting for 'The Following' Edition: Make Your Guesses About the Current Crop of Bubble Shows

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

January 20th, 2013

I received an e-mail this week that said "I know it's called "Bubble Watch" but if the difference between the Renew/Cancel Index and the Bubble Watch is that you're willing to guess, why are their any shows on the bubble. You should guess them all!"

It's a fair question. I am a bit more willing to do some guessing about the future, but I am not into random guessing. I'm not any better at pulling rabbits out of magical hats than Bullwinkle!

There are educated guesses and there is flipping a coin.  Currently I have 15 shows "on the bubble."  Several of them are there only due to nuance i.e., I definitely see 1600 Penn and Carrie Diaries quickly sliding into likely cancellation territory, but am holding off judgment in the interest of more time/data points.

Sometimes shows really are true tossups, either due to the ratings, the situation, or both. I don't want to make guesses in those cases. I can make the educated guess that ABC would like its Friday comedies to perform better and would prefer they not get beaten by reruns of Shark Tank! But I have no insight into what ABC thinks about those ratings or, and somewhat importantly, how the advertising sales for those shows work (versus the better performing repeat of Shark Tank). Throw in that if the comedies could be shepherded along for four seasons, there's a syndication payday that's likely/traditionally a fair bit better than the syndication payday for Shark Tank and for me, it adds up to "tossup, I don't know and can't really guess which way it will go." That's different than what I'd do based on the ratings data alone -- of course I'd cancel them and air reruns of Shark Tank based on that!

Still, of the 15 shows currently on the bubble, I am at least somewhat comfortable about guessing about 60% of them. While I'm more comfortable guessing those shows, I am not comfortable about the accuracy of the guessing, which is why I don't make those guesses. Usually.

But today, since there's not much going on and I don't feel like writing the "C'mon people, of COURSE the Middle will be renewed, but the reason I have it as only a likely renewal is..." piece, here are my guesses about the 60% of bubble shows I'm at least somewhat comfortable about guessing.  They are still on the bubble in the normal list, and since we're guessing, I'll guess by the end of the season those 60% will no longer be on the bubble.

Last Man Standing ABC Sorry, Still On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC Sorry, Still On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox Canceled/No additional episodes ordered*
The Good Wife CBS Sorry, Still On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
90210 CW Final 13 episode season
Carrie Diaries, The CW Canceled
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewed
Nikita CW Renewed
Beauty And The Beast CW Canceled
The Mindy Project Fox Renewed
1600 Penn NBC Canceled
Deception NBC Sorry, Still On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC Sorry, Still On The Bubble, but almost went canceled
Whitney NBC Sorry, Still On The Bubble

*In terms of guessing my guess -- and it is just a guess -- is Cleveland doesn't get renewed, but I don't track how many episodes will be left over after this TV season and wouldn't count those remaining episodes as a renewal.

Feel free to make your own guesses in the comments, but remember, "Whitney should be canceled because I don't like it!!" is not...a guess.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

--

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
1600 Penn NBC On The Bubble
Deception NBC On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Nashville ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Go On NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Not Quite Renewed Yet, But a Certain Renewal
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Brendan

    Renew Whitney!!!!

  • The End

    @Jake

    Can’t see Once Upon a Time airing at 9pm personally, it has the family friendly Sunday 8pm timeslot because that simply appeals to the audience. I do like your schedule choices though.

    I would put as

    8pm – Once Upon a Time Season 3
    9pm – Revenge Season 3
    10pm – New Show

    I’m 100 percent certain ABC are going along that route.

  • Miranda

    I’m surprised that Whitney is on the bubble i think it should be renewed.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Bill: That’s interesting – you can’t see the “rules” the spam filter uses? That sucks. Something like that should always be viewable and tweakable.

    What’s weird is that I can post a long response like the one to Brandy and the spam filter ignores it, but a much shorter post – which presumably offers less to chew on – gets grabbed.

  • Paul P

    @ Jake – agree Vegas may return…based on quality scripts TGW is down this
    season. The Mentalist has been better & Blue Bloods outstanding.
    Elementry & Nashville have been a bit better also. Tough to rate as ratings are down across the board.

  • Tyson

    Doug,

    “The NFL will never again be on ABC. It is far too profitable for sister network ESPN for Disney to allow ABC to cannibalize that audience.”

    You’re right.

    “The most I could see would be ESPN getting the rights to the Super Bowl, and it airing on simulcast with ABC. But even that is not likely.”

    Current NFL broadcasting rules wouldn’t allow such an arrangement. ABC doesn’t broadcast NFL games; therefore, it can’t air the Super Bowl. ESPN isn’t a broadcast network; therefore, it can’t air the Super Bowl.

    The three over-the-air networks that air NFL games (CBS, Fox, NBC) rotate the Super Bowl broadcast. Disney has clearly made the determination that one Super Bowl every three or four years isn’t worth as much money as having the Monday Night Football package on ESPN.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Current NFL broadcasting rules wouldn’t allow such an arrangement. ABC doesn’t broadcast NFL games; therefore, it can’t air the Super Bowl. ESPN isn’t a broadcast network; therefore, it can’t air the Super Bowl.

    The three over-the-air networks that air NFL games (CBS, Fox, NBC) rotate the Super Bowl broadcast. Disney has clearly made the determination that one Super Bowl every three or four years isn’t worth as much money as having the Monday Night Football package on ESPN.”

    Given that the current NFL TV deal runs through 2022, nothing’s going to happen anytime soon, but there is no reason that ESPN couldn’t ultimately air NFL playoff games and/or the Super Bowl.

    I’d be very surprised if when the post-2022 deal gets negotiated, ESPN doesn’t try and get in on the playoff/SB action.

    By then, ESPN will have had the college bowl season pretty much all to itself for more than a decade, all baseball post season but the World Series will have been on cable for almost a decade (maybe the WS too at that point) and attitudes toward the SB being on cable may well have changed and the mountain of money that ESPN makes today will be even more mountainous.

  • Brian

    Last Man Standing ABC Cancelled
    Malibu Country ABC Cancelled
    Cleveland Show, The Fox Cancelled
    The Good Wife CBS Survives (Say hello to Fridays)
    The Mentalist CBS Survives
    90210 CW Short Final Season
    Carrie Diaries, The CW Too Soon to Tell
    Hart Of Dixie CW Cancelled
    Nikita CW Saved by syndication
    Beauty And The Beast CW Cancelled
    The Mindy Project Fox Survives
    1600 Penn NBC Survives
    Deception NBC Too Soon to Tell
    New Normal, The NBC Cancelled
    Whitney NBC Survives

  • Chibgchong

    Guys with kids is really an amazing show I don’t understand why it’s disliked :/ it’s very funny. Ben and Kate is also really good but I can see why it’s not as appealing to others as it is to me.

  • Lisa

    KEEP
    Last Man Standing
    Malibu Country
    90210
    Hart of Dixie
    Nikita
    The Mindy Project
    The New Normal
    Whitney

    CANCEL
    Cleveland Show
    The Good Wife
    The Mentalist
    Carrie Diaries
    Beauty And The Beast
    1600 Penn
    Deception

  • Dave

    Keep Nikita and beauty and the beast.

  • spycomics

    I don’t understand how you can have Vegas in the “Likely to be canceled” section. NO other show on any network on any day except perhaps CSI on Wednesday is bringing in the number of viewers that Vegas does. So, you think they’re just not the right demo of viewers? I don’t see them discarding a show that features Dennis Quaid, Jason O’Mara and Michael Chiklas. What could they replace it with that would do better? Tuesday Night Football? I doubt it. That’s a pretty big crapshoot and I don’t see CBS doing it. Vegas survives.

  • Nick

    @spycomics

    So, you think they’re just not the right demo of viewers?

    That’s precisely the problem. Vegas’s ratings in the demo stink. And if you factor in that CBS has to cancel at least 3 of its dramas on the bubble (including the upcoming Golden Boy), and that Vegas is the lowest-rated out of all of them, I’m surprised it’s not certain to be cancelled.

  • Holly

    @sypcomics,

    NO other show on any network on any day except perhaps CSI on Wednesday is bringing in the number of viewers that Vegas does.

    NCIS, NCIS: LA, Elementary, Person of Interest, Blue Bloods, 2 1/2 Men, TBBT, The Mentalist….

  • spycomics

    I meant to say no other show at 10:00 pm brings in as many viewers as Vegas except for maybe CSI. Number of viewers counts for something and Vegas had 11 million a week or so ago. And I say again, what could they replace it with that would be guaranteed better? a reality show? a soap? Don’t think so. Vegas survives.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I meant to say no other show at 10:00 pm brings in as many viewers as Vegas except for maybe CSI. Number of viewers counts for something and Vegas had 11 million a week or so ago. And I say again, what could they replace it with that would be guaranteed better? a reality show? a soap? Don’t think so. Vegas survives.”

    Stage One of the TV Fan Stages of Grief.

  • Holly

    @sypcomics,

    Even just counting 10 pm shows, The Mentalist, Elementary, and Blue Bloods pull in numbers similar to Vegas, so it’s nothing special.

    Also, total viewers only count for PR. High viewer numbers will not save a show with low demos (e.g. Harry’s Law).

  • BrownCoat

    Spycomics, I’d like to introduce you to a little show called “Harry’s Law.” It had amazingly high total viewship numbers and an Oscar winning actress as the lead (who was also nominated for an Emmy for this role.) It also had a very low 18-49 demo and NBCcanceled it.

  • spycomics

    Holly and BrownCoat, I think NBC botched Harry’s Law by tinkering with the show characters and time slot. And that’s still NBC, not the sharpest network on the dial. I’m not claiming Vegas numbers are fantastic. I’m just not seeing what could replace it that would do better. CBS Tuesdays attracts older viewers along with younger, as NCIS proves. What could CBS hope to replace Vegas with that wouldn’t be a total guessing game as to its perfomance. Mentalist is getting tired, Blue Bloods probably attracts the same type audience as Vegas, and as I said previously, a new show would be a total crapshoot as to its performing better than Vegas. Why discard it and the star power it brings? Just for the hope that something MIGHT do better? And Bill, just because you’ve called it doesn’t make it a done deal. I’ll have the first stage of grief IF I’m wrong. And the other stages too. IF

  • DeanW

    A new Drama on Friday next season is suicide for CBS. None of them worked (A Gifted Man, Medium…). CBS should move a veteran on its timeslot.
    What CBS should do is to Renew all of CSI: NY (13 episodes), The Mentalist (18-20 episodes) and The Good Wife (22 episodes). Then, TGW moves to Friday at 8 until CSI: NY Season Final in February then TGW moves to 9PM to make room for Undercover Boss.
    The Mentalist stays on Sunday at 10 with Elementary as lead-in (both are very similar) then when TM ends in March/April CBS could premiere a new drama like NYC 22 last year.

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – The Good Wife / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – CSI: NY / The Good Wife
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Elementary
    10:00 – The Mentalist / NEW DRAMA

    The canceled Shows are (for me): Vegas, Golden Boy, Friend Me, Rules of Engagement, Partners and Made in Jersey.

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