Bubble Watch Waiting for 'The Following' Edition: Make Your Guesses About the Current Crop of Bubble Shows

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

January 20th, 2013

I received an e-mail this week that said "I know it's called "Bubble Watch" but if the difference between the Renew/Cancel Index and the Bubble Watch is that you're willing to guess, why are their any shows on the bubble. You should guess them all!"

It's a fair question. I am a bit more willing to do some guessing about the future, but I am not into random guessing. I'm not any better at pulling rabbits out of magical hats than Bullwinkle!

There are educated guesses and there is flipping a coin.  Currently I have 15 shows "on the bubble."  Several of them are there only due to nuance i.e., I definitely see 1600 Penn and Carrie Diaries quickly sliding into likely cancellation territory, but am holding off judgment in the interest of more time/data points.

Sometimes shows really are true tossups, either due to the ratings, the situation, or both. I don't want to make guesses in those cases. I can make the educated guess that ABC would like its Friday comedies to perform better and would prefer they not get beaten by reruns of Shark Tank! But I have no insight into what ABC thinks about those ratings or, and somewhat importantly, how the advertising sales for those shows work (versus the better performing repeat of Shark Tank). Throw in that if the comedies could be shepherded along for four seasons, there's a syndication payday that's likely/traditionally a fair bit better than the syndication payday for Shark Tank and for me, it adds up to "tossup, I don't know and can't really guess which way it will go." That's different than what I'd do based on the ratings data alone -- of course I'd cancel them and air reruns of Shark Tank based on that!

Still, of the 15 shows currently on the bubble, I am at least somewhat comfortable about guessing about 60% of them. While I'm more comfortable guessing those shows, I am not comfortable about the accuracy of the guessing, which is why I don't make those guesses. Usually.

But today, since there's not much going on and I don't feel like writing the "C'mon people, of COURSE the Middle will be renewed, but the reason I have it as only a likely renewal is..." piece, here are my guesses about the 60% of bubble shows I'm at least somewhat comfortable about guessing.  They are still on the bubble in the normal list, and since we're guessing, I'll guess by the end of the season those 60% will no longer be on the bubble.

Last Man Standing ABC Sorry, Still On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC Sorry, Still On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox Canceled/No additional episodes ordered*
The Good Wife CBS Sorry, Still On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS Renewed
90210 CW Final 13 episode season
Carrie Diaries, The CW Canceled
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewed
Nikita CW Renewed
Beauty And The Beast CW Canceled
The Mindy Project Fox Renewed
1600 Penn NBC Canceled
Deception NBC Sorry, Still On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC Sorry, Still On The Bubble, but almost went canceled
Whitney NBC Sorry, Still On The Bubble

*In terms of guessing my guess -- and it is just a guess -- is Cleveland doesn't get renewed, but I don't track how many episodes will be left over after this TV season and wouldn't count those remaining episodes as a renewal.

Feel free to make your own guesses in the comments, but remember, "Whitney should be canceled because I don't like it!!" is not...a guess.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

--

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Certain Cancellation
Ben And Kate Fox Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Cleveland Show, The Fox On The Bubble
The Good Wife CBS On The Bubble
The Mentalist CBS On The Bubble
90210 CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Nikita CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
The Mindy Project Fox On The Bubble
1600 Penn NBC On The Bubble
Deception NBC On The Bubble
New Normal, The NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Nashville ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
The Middle ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Likely Renewal
Go On NBC Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Arrow CW Certain Renewal
Supernatural CW Certain Renewal
The Vampire Diaries CW Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Not Quite Renewed Yet, But a Certain Renewal
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Canceled/Final Season
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season
The Office NBC Final Season
 
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  • Holly

    @spycomics,

    OK, how about this. Which show should CBS cancel to save Vegas?

    @DeanW,

    So you think CBS will only premiere two new dramas in the fall? When was the last time they premiered that few shows?

  • The End

    @Holly

    You know CBS wouldn’t cancel any show to ‘save’ Vegas. If anything Vegas is in the guillotine and we’re just waiting for the nod for the blade to fall.

    Sad but true.

  • The End

    The Good Wife is more than likely going to stay as a Sunday show ‘if’ renewed. I can’t see it being moved again.

  • Holly

    @The End,

    I know that, and you know that, but spycomics doesn’t know that so I’m trying to help him/her understand.

  • DeanW

    @ Holly

    After all CBS premiere 3 new dramas this year and one was canceled after its second episode. It’s like CBS premiered two new dramas.
    If CBS really wants to premiere 3 dramas in the fall TGW could be Renewed for only 13 episodes which will premiere in February and CBS could premiere a new drama on Friday at 8 (the two others on Tuesday at 9 and 10).

  • DeanW

    @ The End and Holly

    After all TGW is in danger since its 2nd Season and IF it’s Renewed it will be for a final Season. For me it should be canceled.

  • Fan

    Why Two and a Half Men is Certain to be Renewed ? Last year it was Likely to be Renewed because of the cast contract but this year it’s the same thing. All the cast will have to sign for another Season which means they will want more money.
    Two and a Half Men is Certain to be Renewed regarding to the ratings but just likely to be Renewed regarding to other factors.

  • Holly

    @Dean W,

    After all CBS premiere 3 new dramas this year and one was canceled after its second episode. It’s like CBS premiered two new dramas.

    So since they had a bad pilot season this year, they should just stop trying?

  • DeanW

    They should try but NOT on Friday ! It’s a deadly night for new Shows. Look at A Gifted Man who only got a 1.2 or CSI: NY which was one of the most watched drama on CBS until they move it to Friday (it got a 3.0 during its sixth Season and around a 1.9 during its seventh).
    The Show lost 1.1 rating point in a year only because it was on Friday !

  • Holly

    @DeanW,

    CSI:NY was moved to Friday because of its dropping ratings. Did it take a hit with the move? Of course. But the season leading up to the move it the only lower rated shows that weren’t canceled were The Good Wife and Medium (which already aired on Friday). It was moved to allow a better launch for a new show (instead of premiering two new shows on Friday). That same year Blue Bloods premiered on Friday and seems to be doing just fine.

  • cimmer

    I don’t know that I agree with all the shows on the Certain Renewal list. I think some of them should be on the Likely Renewal List like I’m pretty sure Revolution will be renewed but I don’t know that it’s a lock yet . even if it is NBC. There’s a couple of other shows too but…..

  • Honey Badger

    ABC is follwing the lead of NBC and they are killing the network.

    Nashville notched a 1.8 18-49 Rating with 5.47 Viewers (millions) last night.
    Time for ABC to cancel Nashville, with all the advertising they have done for this show, these ratings and viewers are terrible.
    Last week’s ratings for Nashville where an abbreviation and clearly many of the people who viewed the show did not like it, and will not watch again.
    Look at the lead-ins for Nashville, ABC Modern Family scored a 4.1. Suburgatory earned a 2.3.

    Nashville notched a 1.8 when the competition on NBC Chicago Fire was a repeat.
    And CBS CSI 2.7 did well.

    10:00 CBS CSI 2.7/7 11.49
    ABC Nashville 1.8/5 5.47
    NBC Chicago Fire -R 0.8/2 2.53

    Time for ABC to cancel Nashville

    If ABC renews Nashville, they are in big trouble and their overall ratings will keep dropping.
    Way to kill a network ABC.
    Take away Modern Family , Grey’s Anatomy and Once Upon A Time and all ABC has left is poor rated shows and overall their shows have been falling like a rock this year.
    Way to kill a network ABC.

  • Joel Schechter

    I do not understand why you feel Vegas is likely to be cancelled. It has a good number of viewers even though its audience skews old. I don’t feel its older audience is a threat to its survival since Vegas was never intended to have a strong appeal to younger viewers. CBS knew the show was set 50 years in the past when they put it on the schedule.

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