ABC: 'Nashville' Now Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort canceled 0.57
Private Practice canceled 0.59
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.59
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.72
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.01
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.32

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After two episodes in 2013, Nashville has elevated its relative ratings enough to move its status from "likely" to "certain to be renewed". If the ratings plunge in the Spring, the prediction will change, but at this point, expect to see it on the schedule next season.

Those calling for blood after Revenge's 1.7 rating on Sunday night should calm themselves. One night is effectively irrelevant to the future of the show. As always, if the ratings continue their slide, so will its predicted status.

Fans of Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23, when a show is pulled off the schedule with no return date, it's been canceled. Only the delusional need more "confirmation" than that.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • The Cool Max

    So sad for 23. It was never treated well.

  • Glover

    I honestly don’t see The Neighbors returning next season.

  • RRR

    I’m gonna say Happy Endings getting another season can go either way. Sure, it’s ratings aren’t that great, but the fact that ABC spared them and is aired the rest of their season (albeit in 2 a week burn off mode) seems to give them some hope. They’d really only need 23 more episodes to get to exactly 80 episodes. In some cases 80 or 81 seems to be enough for certain syndication deals these days, I can’t see SONY/ABC letting it go at this point. Kind of a “well its low rated, but we’ve gone this far with it” renewel.

  • The End

    @The Cool Max

    Don’t Trust the B has been treated well enough by ABC and has been given plenty of chances to succeed but there is simply no audience amongst the Nielsen households for it.

  • Jake

    I too will miss “Happy Endings.” It’s truly funny and quick as can be. Pity more people haven’t discovered it or taken to it…but that’s nothing new in TV. (I’ll also defend “The Neighbors” to those who bag on it. I went in expecting to loathe it, but I find myself genuinely amused each time.)

  • Brandy

    To those fantasay schedulers, Once Upon a Time will not move from 7pm Sun (its a family freindley show in the family hour)and Revenge will Likley stay where it is and a new female skewing soap after it, ( Sundays have been abcs female soap night for years and I don’t see that changing ) or move to 9 pm and a new show , a female skewing soap in between Once and Revenge.

  • rob60990

    The Neighbors will sink when it has to air on its own.

    Their only midseason drama with any chance is Red Widow but the promos are horrible and tell me nothing.

  • gerry

    happy for nashville, sad for apt 23. glad all of my other shows on this net seem to be intact for now.

  • The End

    @rob60990

    The Neighbors was my pick for cancelation prior to airing based on the critics universally slating the shows pilot. I’m still hoping my prediction comes off.

  • Matthew

    Sort of a new schedule idea for Fall 2013:

    Sunday:
    7PM:
    8PM: Once Upon a Time
    9PM: New Drama (or Red Widow if show get decent 1.8+ or above)
    10PM: Revenge (This show is clearly better at 10pm and has not been doing much better with OUAT. Even though they are female oriented, OUAT is more of a family drama.)

    Monday:

    8PM: DWTS (There is not really a reason to cancel this show yet, but they need to start showing it less to build up the hype again. There strechcing it out way too much.)
    9PM: New Drama or Mistresses
    10PM: Castle (It has been here for a while now, so they might as well just keep it here. This could be its final season)

    Tuesdays:

    8PM: New Reality Show
    9PM: S.H.I.L.D (New Drama, and this can totally crush the other shows. Tuesdays is now like a dead day on TV, and we really need a hit)
    10PM: Zero Hour

    Wednesdays: (I feel like they should just keep everything where it is. In Mid-Season they can play around and maybe switch shows to try to get Suburgatory or How I Live With Your Parents to get constant 2.6+ and blossom into a hit)
    8PM: The Middle
    8:30PM: Suburgatory
    9PM: Modern Family
    9:30PM: How to Live With Your Parents
    10PM: Nashville

    Thursdays: (For Now in Fall 2013, I think Greys and Scandal will stay at 9PM and then 10PM but maybe in Midseason 2014, ABC should experiment and change Scandal to 9 and Greys to 10? And if it doesn’t end up working they can switch it back)

    8PM: Body of Proof (May as well not cancel it, and stick it here because most shows wont work with TBBT and it works well with the demographic of the other two shows)
    9PM: Greys Anatomy
    10PM: Scandal

    Fridays:

    8PM: Last Man Standing
    8:30PM: Malibu Country
    9PM: Shark Tank
    10PM: New Drama

    Saturday: (Repeats)

    So basically depending on renewal shows, 3-5 new shows will premiere and I am predicting Happy Endings will get a renewal to be put somewhere in Midseason.

  • Matthew

    *7PM Sundays: The Taste

  • Melanie

    Yay for Nashville!! :)

  • THE OLD MAN

    Nashville deserves certain renewal

  • eridapo

    @ David Howell

    Unlikely… Castle is in syndication, so it will stay over any unproven show.

  • Brandy

    Matthew, Once is Sun at 7 and will most Likley stay there for the entire series run,being in the family friendly timeslots and doing well there I doubt they’d move it so the Taste can’t go Sun. @7

  • Ultima

    @The End
    The Neighbors was my pick for cancelation prior to airing based on the critics universally slating the shows pilot.

    Same for many people, just like Whitney last year.

    This May, I’m just going to take the most awful looking sitcom and say it is a lock for renewal! ;)

  • JJF

    I think Nashville’s fate will be contingent on the success of the midseasons shows. ABC always gives one pity slot away so if Nashville is the best of the newcomers bunch, it will probably get that slot. (Since PP/BOP will be gone, it’ll probably mean the same number of new shows next season.)

  • davidwatts

    Michael
    Posted January 23, 2013 at 10:44 AM

    I am really going to miss HAPPY ENDINGS. It has never received the attention it deserved and has been very mistreated by ABC from the start
    ==

    I dont think that is the case. It was given a second season even though ratings slumped at the end of the season. Then, it was given the time slot after ‘Modern Family’. For this season, I dont buy the ‘lack of promotion’ trick because I saw plenty of commercials for it (And ‘…Apt 23′) about its season premiere AND a lot of commercials for the Sunday airings (especially during the football games on ESPN (synergy!!!) around New Years Day)
    If it gets canned, its not for a lack of trying. And I am saying this as a Happy Endings fan

  • Nick

    What ABC should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: Dancing With the Stars/ The Bachelor
    10: Nashville

    Tue-
    8: Dancing With the Stars: Results/ Winter Wipeout
    9: Shark Tank
    10: Body of Proof

    Wed-
    8: The Middle
    8:30: Suburgatory
    9: Modern Family
    9:30: Knock Knock (new)
    10: Birthright (new)

    Thu-
    8: Grey’s Anatomy
    9: Revenge
    10: Rise & Fall (new)

    Fri-
    8: Last Man Standing
    8:30: Malibu Country
    9: Now What? (new)
    9:30: The Neighbors
    10: 20/20

    Sat- (midseason)
    8: Shark Tank (R)/ Winter Wipeout (R)
    9: Castle (R)
    10: Primetime: What Would You Do?

    Sun-
    7: AFHV
    8: Once Upon a Time
    9: SHEILD (new)
    10: Castle

    Midseason- Scandal, Red Widow, How to Live With Your Parents (for the Rest of Your Life)

  • Bookworm

    Nick,

    I’m not understanding why you keep putting Scandal for Mid season when it is getting better ratings than both Nashville and Castle. Do you honestly think ABC will stuff it to mid season when it has been doing pretty good numbers for 10pm and the best they have in that time slot?

    Revenge getting Greys old spot would tank the time slot. It can’t even stay steady around a 2.6 never mind win the time slot with a needed 2.9-3.1. POI would sink it.

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