ABC: 'Nashville' Now Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort canceled 0.57
Private Practice canceled 0.59
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.59
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.72
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.01
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.32

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After two episodes in 2013, Nashville has elevated its relative ratings enough to move its status from "likely" to "certain to be renewed". If the ratings plunge in the Spring, the prediction will change, but at this point, expect to see it on the schedule next season.

Those calling for blood after Revenge's 1.7 rating on Sunday night should calm themselves. One night is effectively irrelevant to the future of the show. As always, if the ratings continue their slide, so will its predicted status.

Fans of Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23, when a show is pulled off the schedule with no return date, it's been canceled. Only the delusional need more "confirmation" than that.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Devin

    I have no desire to see Jane Fonda in anything.

  • Layton

    @Brandy

    Once is on at 8PM EST, sure it is on at 7 in central timezone, but I think these schedules are based off East coast time.

  • Stormy44

    I think that Nashville will probably be renewed but I wouldn’t put it on the certain renewal list yet until it has a winter of steady 2.1 and up against CSI and Chicago Fire. Yes it’s numbers were up the last couple of weeks but that was against repeats of the other two. And while it does well in live +7 numbers, when all is said and done, it is the initial numbers that matter and it has to show consistency there first for me before I list it as a certainty.

  • v

    Revenge is fine, it will just be moved to Sunday 10pm.
    SHIELD probably gets 9pm Sunday slot.

    I’ll call it, Neighbors gets cancelled. Its ending early this year, so
    ABC will use the Modern Family slot for HowToLiveWithParents comedy later this season, or new comedy next year. Simmilar to CBS Monday block.

    ABC has had no success with comedies outside Wed block, and i doubt Neighbors does any better. Just look and HE DTTBAPT23.

  • SJ

    Hmmm… with Scandal and Nashville going from bubble to certain renewal, and if Body of Proof does decently enough to come back for a fourth season, ABC might not have that much free space next season. Red Widow and Zero Hour both have flop written all over them.

    I think the most interesting guessing game as far as ABC goes is, what happens to Happy Endings. I hope The Neighbors goes from likely renewal to likely/certain cancellation within the next few weeks when ABC begins to burn it off to make room for How to Live with Your Parents (which, incidentally, is looking at a fate similar to Don’t Trust the B).

    When will ABC learn that trying to launch something out of Modern Family at the end of the season is the wrong way to go? Why not give the pimp spot to a new show in September? Maybe then something will finally stick.

  • Ultima

    @v
    SHIELD probably gets 9pm Sunday slot.

    How is airing SHIELD against Sunday Night Football, Animation Domination and The Walking Dead a good idea?

  • Ultima

    @SJ
    if Body of Proof does decently enough to come back for a fourth season

    It didn’t have to do decent to get a third season, why should it have to do so to get a fourth? ;)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Revenge is having some problems. The Ryan brothers story arc needs to go away – those characters are utterly superfluous. Nolan’s old boyfriend needs to go away – he’s utterly boring. Padma needs to be resolved and go away – although she is hot. Aidan can stay but they need to resolve his sister (I don’t buy the events of this past episode actually does that).

    However, I think Revenge will stay north of 1.5 and probably closer to 2.0 for the rest of the season and be certain of a season three – which then implies a season four. In short, Revenge will end up being where Castle is.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Ultima: “How is airing SHIELD against Sunday Night Football, Animation Domination and The Walking Dead a good idea?”

    Because networks put what they hope will be a high performing show up against their highest competition in order to try to wrest the night away from their competition?

    People don’t seem to get that’s what you SHOULD do if you’re a network. It may not always work but nothing else will either.

  • SJ

    @Ultima

    Touché! ;) If it keeps a 1.6-1.8 rating this season, I can see it coming back as spackle since it’s cheap and there’s syndication potential, however slight (the show will be at 42 episodes after this season).

    Poor SHIELD, if it does get made, will likely get stuck with the Thursday 8pm time slot. It seems to be ABC’s go-to time slot for male-skewing dramas.

  • KJ Styles

    I think Grey’s Anatomy SHOULD move to 8pm Thursday. Those thinking that it would be “killed” are delusional. While it wouldn’t beat The Big Bang Theory, it wouldn’t fall low enough to get cancelled because it has a strong fanbase that would follow it regardless. It’s the second highest rated broadcast network drama only behind NCIS. So it would be fine Thursdays at 8.

    You cannot keep running new dramas in that timeslot. No new drama has worked there since Ugly Betty, and that wasn’t up against TBBT until 2010.

  • KJ Styles

    Had Last Resort aired in Scandal’s timeslot, it would have gotten a second season. I know that sounds like Fan Excuse Bingo, but it’s the truth. It’s a far better show than Scandal and would have faced lesser competition.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Had Last Resort aired in Scandal’s timeslot, it would have gotten a second season. I know that sounds like Fan Excuse Bingo, but it’s the truth. It’s a far better show than Scandal and would have faced lesser competition.

    Fan Excuse Bingo is often amusing, but not always crazy. But, “Shows I like should do better than shows I don’t like”…that’s always crazy.

  • The End

    Shield(Excuse my not putting dots between each letter) doesn’t need the 9pm Sunday slot though. It has enough behind it to be a success on a regular weekday in whatever timeslot is selected for it, likely Tuesday at 9pm or something.

    Revenge and Once are a good pairing that are unlikely to be changed. Revenge has done well enough prior to last weeks episode to warrant keeping that slot for Season 3.

    Given the success of The Avengers, ABC are pretty much unlikely to put the show on a Sunday, the show doesn’t need a quality lead in.

  • JoeRobby

    Michael
    Posted January 23, 2013 at 10:44 AM

    I am really going to miss HAPPY ENDINGS. It has never received the attention it deserved and has been very mistreated by ABC from the start
    ==

    I dont think that is the case. It was given a second season even though ratings slumped at the end of the season. Then, it was given the time slot after ‘Modern Family’. For this season, I dont buy the ‘lack of promotion’ trick because I saw plenty of commercials for it (And ‘…Apt 23?) about its season premiere AND a lot of commercials for the Sunday airings (especially during the football games on ESPN (synergy!!!) around New Years Day)
    If it gets canned, its not for a lack of trying. And I am saying this as a Happy Endings fan

    ==

    The first season premiered about 3/4 weeks before ABC released the following season’s schedule. That isn’t treated well. And the ratings slumped because they were at 10 and 10:30 PM (where “Revenge” premiered the following season). That said, ABC basically said “we get it” regarding the treatment and that is why it was renewed for a 2nd season. However, in the 2nd season, many of the episodes (including the season finale) on days when all other 3 sitcoms were repeats. That isn’t treated well. Then, they premiered the show a month and 1/2 after all the other sitcoms premiered on the same night (sitcoms all targeted towards the same audience). That also isn’t treated well.

    I do admit they advertised the heck out of a show, but that means nothing if it isn’t accessible to viewers. That is like opening a theme park in Nunuvut, advertising the heck outta it, and not understanding why people aren’t coming. Okay…maybe a bit of a drastic example, but I think you get the point.

  • Ultima

    @RSH
    Because networks put what they hope will be a high performing show up against their highest competition in order to try to wrest the night away from their competition?

    I realize that, but typically you do so by counter-programming with something that targets a different audience.

    They should be scheduling the male-oriented SHIELD in a competitive timeslot where that demographic isn’t being catered to, not putting it up against the strongest male-oriented programs on TV.

    There’s a reason the three-way sitcom competitions repeatedly end in failure. Too many people fighting over the same slice of pie…

  • SJ

    @The End

    Shield(Excuse my not putting dots between each letter) doesn’t need the 9pm Sunday slot though. It has enough behind it to be a success on a regular weekday

    Yeah, because Joss Whedon has been so successful when it comes to producing long-running TV shows. *cough*Firefly*cough*Dollhouse*

    Also, having a well-known franchise/recognizable brand behind it didn’t help Charlie’s Angels or The Playboy Club, and it doesn’t look like it’s helping The Carrie Diaries much, either.

    Why are people acting as if Sunday 9pm is the creme de la creme of network time slots? It’s a horrible time slot. Revenge is getting killed, as did Desperate Housewives before it. NBC has so-so numbers with Celebrity Apprentice and Family Guy isn’t really pulling impressive numbers when not boosted by football. Don’t even get me started on CBS. And with award shows, sports and cable programming, it is probably the time slot with the most competition.

  • Nick

    @Bookworm

    I’m not understanding why you keep putting Scandal for Mid season when it is getting better ratings than both Nashville and Castle.

    Simply because I need the other two in the fall. Nashville is on the syndication fast track, and I need Castle to help the flow of Sunday nights. Scandal does not fit anywhere in the sched, so it goes to midseason.
    Also, I don’t believe that Scandal’s ratings are that much better than Castle & Nashville. They had 1 spurt thanks to a heavily-buzzed event. Come back if the ratings are better as a whole.

    it has been […] the best they have in that time slot?

    I’m confused. You do realize that the laws of physics prohibit two shows from airing in the same slot on the same network at the same time, right?

    Revenge getting Greys old spot would tank the time slot.

    I’m just going to have to disagree with you on that.

    It can’t even stay steady around a 2.6

    Like it did this fall, you mean?

    never mind win the time slot with a needed 2.9-3.1.

    Since when is that important? Once Upon a Time always loses to football. Is it a flop now?

    POI would sink it.

    I seriously doubt Revenge & POI share a similar audience. They wouldn’t affect each other much.

  • Nick

    @The End

    Shield(Excuse my not putting dots between each letter

    You do realize that writing that explanation in the parenthesis was more work than writing it out, right?

  • The End

    @SJ

    Not like a TV series based in the same universe as a movie that grossed $1.5 billion in the box office would need any help right? The two examples you gave were pretty dreadful. Neither of those were associated with a movie like The Avengers.

    S.H.E.I.L.D is guaranteed to draw a lot of viewers because of The Avengers alone, watch ABC promote the series in that manner.

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