ABC: 'Nashville' Now Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort canceled 0.57
Private Practice canceled 0.59
Happy Endings :cry: :cry: 0.59
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.72
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.98
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.01
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.32

-
After two episodes in 2013, Nashville has elevated its relative ratings enough to move its status from "likely" to "certain to be renewed". If the ratings plunge in the Spring, the prediction will change, but at this point, expect to see it on the schedule next season.

Those calling for blood after Revenge's 1.7 rating on Sunday night should calm themselves. One night is effectively irrelevant to the future of the show. As always, if the ratings continue their slide, so will its predicted status.

Fans of Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23, when a show is pulled off the schedule with no return date, it's been canceled. Only the delusional need more "confirmation" than that.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • jel

    Apologies if this question has been addressed before, but since ‘Happy Endings” has 50 something episodes by the end of this season, would that make it equivalent to third year shows like Cougar Town last year or “Nikita” this year, where a 4th season would do the syndication trick and thereby make a 4th season more likely on those grounds than current ratings would suggest.

  • Josh

    So glad Nashville is certain to be renewed such a great show. I hope Revenge stays a certain renewal as well Zero Hour looks like it should be a mini-series. The only show I want to see is Red Widow and if that stays they should pair it with Revenge. We shall see ABC already made me upset in 2010 when they canceled FlashForward.

  • Illinois

    What I would do

    MONDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 – Nashville

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars: Results
    9:00 – The Neighbors
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – Body of Proof

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – Suburgatory
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy (full and Final Season)
    10:00 – Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Last Man Standing
    8:30 – Malibu Country
    9:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – Revenge
    10:00 – Castle

  • Illinois

    I meant Body of Proof for Mid-season but a NEW DRAMA in the fall.

  • davidwatts

    oeRobby
    Posted January 23, 2013 at 5:29 PM

    ==

    I do admit they advertised the heck out of a show, but that means nothing if it isn’t accessible to viewers. That is like opening a theme park in Nunuvut, advertising the heck outta it, and not understanding why people aren’t coming. Okay…maybe a bit of a drastic example, but I think you get the point.
    ==

    I see your point, but I still think ABC has treated the show a little better than its given credit for because the show is different than all the other comedies on the network (HE seems like a NBC show rather than the family friendlys that are on ABC) and gave it 3 (well 2 full and a shorty) seasons

  • King Crab

    Fans of Don’t Trust The B—- In Apt. 23, when a show is pulled off the “schedule with no return date, it’s been canceled. Only the delusional need more “confirmation” than that.” Ther should be and asterisk that states “unless that show is Til’ Death”, because I am pretty sure that even though it has been off the air for years FOX may put it back on the schedule. I remember how they would order a full season of it and then pull it after a few episodes. It seemed dead but then, lo and behold, it would be back on the schedule the next season. Man, that show was terrible. Somebody must have sold their soul for those renewals.

  • Ted Craig

    I don’t think people realize what a bad match HE would have been with Nashville. Suburgatory, on the other hand, worked well.

  • Devin

    I love making fantasy schedules!

    MONDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars/Bachelor
    10:00– Nashville

    TUESDAY
    8:00 –Last Man Standing/Malibu Country
    9:00 –Dancing with the Stars: Results/Shark Tank in Dec-Feb
    10:00– Castle

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – Bonnie Hunt Show
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – How to Live with Your Parents…
    10:00– Betrayal/Venice (Spring)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Body of Proof
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 – Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Super Fun Night
    8:30 – Suburgatory
    9:00 – How The Hell am I Normal
    9:30 – The Neighbors
    10:00 – The Returned/20/20

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – S.H.I.E.L.D
    10:00 – Revenge

    With the amount of comedies in development, I think you have to have a two hour block on Friday and move Tim and Reba back to Tuesday’s where LMS did respectable last year.

  • Ted Craig

    @Devin,

    Neighbors at 9:30? Not likely. Also, I doubt serial failure Bonnie Hunt is getting a Wednesday night spot.

  • Devin

    @Ted,

    OK, it may not be perfect, but I would like to see LMS back on Tuesdays. You can switch Bonnie and Neighbors with any other comedies. If Bonnie’s show turns out to be good, it would be ideal behind middle.

  • bluejays

    I’m pleased for Nashville, got it lined up on the DVR but not watched it yet. I love Connie Britton. Also great going for Scandal.

    I wonder if Castle will move somewhere next year? Or if they’ll give it one last year at ten on Mondays then cancel it? I don’t think it will end this year, yes it’s ratings are down but its in a very tough time slot and it’s a solid performer for them, if not strong.

  • JAA

    I doubt they’ll move Castle from its time slot, I also doubt next season will be its last, I give it two more seasons.

  • Honey Badger

    Nashville notched a 1.8 18-49 Rating with 5.47 Viewers (millions) last night.
    Time for ABC to cancel Nashville, with all the advertising they have done for this show, these ratings and viewers are terrible.
    Last week’s ratings for Nashville where an abbreviation and clearly many of the people who viewed the show did not like it, and will not watch again.
    Look at the lead-ins for Nashville, ABC Modern Family scored a 4.1. Suburgatory earned a 2.3.

    Nashville notched a 1.8 when the competition on NBC Chicago Fire was a repeat.
    And CBS CSI 2.7 did well.

    10:00 CBS CSI 2.7/7 11.49
    ABC Nashville 1.8/5 5.47
    NBC Chicago Fire -R 0.8/2 2.53

    Time for ABC to cancel Nashville

  • sweetd

    I am giving credit to ABC, and assuming they are not idiots.

    They can have The Neighbors getting OK but not good ratings on Wednesdays and more than likely no third season, or Happy Endings getting better ratings than Neighbours and being close enough to syndication, where they reap (half) the benefits.

    Financially, it makes way more sense for ABC to pick HE over The Neighbors. ABC is fully aware that in any other timeslot, Neighbors would be faring worse than HE and HE would be getting better numbers than Neighbors.

    The only place Neighbors can go next year is Wednesday, and they have better family shows on the horizon.

  • Honey Badger

    If ABC renews Nashville, they are in big trouble and their overall ratings will keep dropping.
    Way to kill a network ABC.
    Take away Modern Family , Grey’s Anatomy and Once Upon A Time and all ABC has left is poor rated shows and overall their shows have been falling like a rock this year.
    Way to kill a network ABC.

  • eridapo

    lol… Nashville’s status changes and the show takes a ratings hit. Renewal Cancel Index is the new SI cover curse…

  • turner

    i think it should be

    Sunday 8:00 Same 9:00 new Drama 10:00 Revenge
    Monday 8:00 same 10:00 Nashville
    Tuesday 8:00 dwts 9:00 The Taste 10:00 Castle
    Wednesday 8:00 same 8:30 New Comedy 9:00 same 9:30 same 10:00 New Drama
    Thursday 8:00 Body Of Proof 9;00 same 10:00 same
    Friday 8:00 Last Man Standing 8:30 New Comedy 9:00 same 10:00 same

  • leonard

    Moving Grey’s Anatomy out of thursdays 9pm it’s the end of the series. They should not do this

  • Verus

    How can a 1.8 for Nashville and trending down be certain for renewal ?

  • rob60990

    “How can a 1.8 for Nashville and trending down be certain for renewal ?”

    This post was done yesterday, before today’s ratings for Nashville came in.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures