CBS: 'Elementary' Now Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.65
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners* canceled 0.79
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.87
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.19

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After two new episodes in 2013, Elementary's relative ratings have picked up to the point where it's now certain to be renewed. If its ratings plunge later in the season, the prediction will be adjusted, but expect to see it on CBS' schedule next season.

Note to the nitpicky commenters, although its just about as certain as it gets, How I Met Your Mother has not yet been officially renewed.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • JacobYates

    Could we see a spark of hope for Vegas now that parenthood is finished?

  • Edward

    I should hope so, Elementary is the best new show of the season.

  • Owen

    Can’t see any changes for the rest of the season.

    It will come down to which of CSI NY, The Mentalist & The Good Wife will be cancelled. Maybe 2 if golden boy does well. Lot will depend if TGW will land a syndication deal somewhere. How big of a factor is that anyway?

  • Dinaminjo

    Elementary, my dear readers.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Can’t see any changes for the rest of the season.”

    Sadly for our pageviews on these posts, except for a possible flurry around Golden Boy results, I agree.

    “It will come down to which of CSI NY, The Mentalist & The Good Wife will be cancelled. Maybe 2 if golden boy does well. Lot will depend if TGW will land a syndication deal somewhere. How big of a factor is that anyway?”

    Possible syndication revenues are *everything* to the future of The Good Wife. Sadly, their status/potential/magnitude is also completely hidden to the public.

  • Wright

    Elementary, NCIS, NCIS:LA and Criminal Minds are great shows.

  • stefan

    Does Good Wife have a chance at renewal without syndication.

  • Ultima

    @stefan
    Does Good Wife have a chance at renewal without syndication.

    Probably not. If they can’t sell it with 88 episodes in the can and the commitment for an additional 12-22 episodes, then it probably isn’t worth keeping on the air and they can try to sell what they have later on.

    CSI:NY certainly has to be more profitable at this point than The Good Wife.

  • Mon

    I watched previous seasons of Dexter last Holiday break and I noticed that Johnny Lee Miller had a bald spot. Now on Elementary, it’s gone and he certainly looks a lot better.

  • David Howell

    9-11 Friday and Sunday are basically CBS’s “syndication sanctuary” time slots now. None of the shows there have the ratings for renewal any other way.

    Hawaii Five-0 will replace whichever one gets cancelled from those slots – I’m backing TGW. If CSI NY goes *as well*, I wonder if CBS tries a bit of TGIF, contingent on getting the new shows to do it. They have, to put it mildly, a much better reason to do it than ABC.

    Fantasy scheduling:
    MON: HIMYM/2BG, 2.5 Men/M&M, new drama
    TUE: NCIS, NCIS LA, new drama
    WED: NCIS spinoff, CM, CSI
    THU: TBBT/Mom, POI, Elementary
    FRI: CSI NY or comedies, Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods
    SAT: gridiron or news magazines as per usual
    SUN: 60 Minutes, Survivor, TAR, Mentalist

  • Mon

    Last Friday, Blue Bloods got only 0.8 A18-34, which translates to about 0.6 million (out of the 11.7 million viewers)! Too old, even for CBS. Are they really gonna cancel CSI: NY and/or The Mentalist for this show? I know it’s an easy yes but can’t they wait for BB to reach 88 episodes then be done with it and let CSI: NY or Mentalist stay longer? Sigh.

  • Linda E.

    HF-0 is up in the index. Yay!!! It deserves renewal on its performance, not for the syndication deal.

  • a p garcia

    With a Post-super bowl slot, yes it will be renewed or else it will be like a lobatomy for CBS!

  • Faith

    This question is to anyone who knows. Does Blue Bloods have a syndication deal?

  • PhilipM

    Total viewers are more important to cable networks than broadcast networks. BB does extremely well among total viewers considering its timeslot. A 1.5 among adults 18-49 isn’t bad either. It wouldn’t be easy for an older-skewing network like CBS to find an adequate replacement or something that would actually do better numbers than BB. At this point, it wouldn’t make any sense for CBS to renew TGW instead of BB without a syndication deal for either show.

    When it comes to TGW, I’m not even sure that a syndication deal would be worth keeping the show for much longer. Given that there seems to be little to no interest, CBS won’t be able to put a heavy price tag on TGW anyway, maybe $250.000 per episode (just guessing). It could make more sense to sell the 88 episodes, take the additional money and not produce any more episodes with increased salaries and mediocre ad revenues. A higher-rated show Sundays at 9:00 PM would increase ad revenues for CBS and probably make the 10:00 PM timeslot more lucrative again as well.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Total viewers are more important to cable networks than broadcast networks”

    Nope!

    Unless you’re talking premium cable (like HBO), they all price their ads based on age & gender demo ratings.

    Total viewership is important only to those who write press releases!

  • Ultima

    @Faith
    Does Blue Bloods have a syndication deal?

    Not yet.

  • Dan

    BB has a better chance at a syndication deal then Good Wife sadly, nd GW still will be renewed. Elementary even with a ratings plunge, will return. Its CBSs only comedy hit this season.

  • DenverDean

    If syndication is important to CBS Studios (that was a joke), then CSI:NY definitely has a great deal of value left it in because of previous deal with TNT. It does perform well in late-night slots. Not sure why CBS would keep that dog TGW after a complete and utter failure in the prime Sunday slot – especially with good lead-ins from TAR, a weakened REV and when lead-out in death slot continues to outperform it (this started in the summer). Dump TGW, move BB to Sunday at 10/9, move CSI:NY to Friday at 10/9 and TM at 9/8.

  • Ryan

    Come on CBS just renew TGW for a final season.

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