CBS: 'Elementary' Now Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.65
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners* canceled 0.79
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.87
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.19

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After two new episodes in 2013, Elementary's relative ratings have picked up to the point where it's now certain to be renewed. If its ratings plunge later in the season, the prediction will be adjusted, but expect to see it on CBS' schedule next season.

Note to the nitpicky commenters, although its just about as certain as it gets, How I Met Your Mother has not yet been officially renewed.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • rob60990

    I’d say Elementary is still likely to be renewed. If it gets a bump after it airs after the SB, I would be much more positive and say it’s certain to be renewed.

  • Illinois

    What CBS should do in the Fall:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Mike & Molly
    8:30 – Two and a Half Men
    9:00 – Person of Interest
    10:00 – Elementary

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA
    9:00 – CSI: NY
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SATURDAY
    8:00 – Crimetime Saturday
    9:00 – Crimetime Saturday
    10:00 – 48 Hours

    SUNDAY
    7:00 – 60 Minutes
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – The Mentalist

    Mid-Season: The Good Wife
    Canceled: Vegas, Partners, Rules of Engagement, Made in Jersey and Golden Boy.

  • PhilipM

    @Bill: Premium and basic cable are obviously different, yep. However, take pro wrestling as an example. On every chart you could find, WWE Smackdown always used to be the show with the lowest ad revenues back in the day on UPN despite being their highest-rated show for quite some time. The same could probably be said now about WWE Raw compared to shows with similar ratings. Apparently, advertisers don’t want their product showcased during wrestling shows regardless of their adults 18-49 ratings, presumably because of their perception of a wrestling audience. The main reason for USA to keep Raw is to draw viewers and tout they’re the most-watched cable network every now and then. I’m pretty sure that claim does matter to them (somewhat).

    Total viewers don’t mean much in the big picture, neither on broadcast nor cable networks. That said, total viewers could very well be one of the minor factors that influence a network’s decision or that of an advertiser, just like an undesireable audience (wrestling) or critical acclaim (TGW).

    It just seems to me that cable networks are more likely to value total viewers more than broadcast networks–and, again, that doesn’t mean total viewers make much of a difference, just “some” difference.

  • KJ Styles

    @Ultima- “CSI:NY certainly has to be more profitable at this point than The Good Wife.”

    Not if Good Wife gets a syndication deal. If it doesn’t, then I agree. But I still don’t like CSI:NY’s chances of renewal given that Golden Boy has shortened it’s season order. Remember last year when CSI:Miami’s season order was shortened by NY 22? I believe that had something to do with Miami’s cancellation.

    I also believe that Golden Boy has been set up for failure as well. I don’t know why CBS insists on airing new shows on Fridays knowing good and well that they aren’t gonna get ratings. NBC can get away with that because their scripted show average sucks, but CBS has the highest scripted show average of the four major broadcast networks. This makes me think that they don’t believe in the show so they’re just putting it out there.

    And whatever happened to Friend Me? Will it ever air or has it been aborted due to the showrunner killing himself.

  • Tina

    My husband and I both love Vegas. It started out a bit show but that is expected in a character driven show. REALLY hope it beats the bear and gets renewed.

  • Raykov

    My fantasy schedule is (I try to keep it as real as I can):

    Fall/Midseason
    Sundays:
    The Amazing Race
    The Good Wife/NEW DRAMA
    Elementary

    Mondays:
    How I Met Your Mother
    NEW COMEDY
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike & Molly
    NEW DRAMA

    Tuesdays:
    NCIS
    NCIS:LA
    NCIS: RED (the NCIS:LA spin-off) NEW DRAMA

    Wednesdays:
    Survivor
    Crimanal Minds
    CSI

    Thursdays:
    The Big Bang Theory
    New Comedy
    Two and a Half Men
    New Comedy
    Persons of Interest

    Fridays:
    Hawaii Five-0
    NEW DRAMA or The Mentalist
    Blue Bloods

  • gerry

    who do i have to bribe at lifetime or we to cut a syndication deal w cbs so i get my final season of good wife???

    hopefully, golden boy will not hit, and mentalist and good wife are renewed. i can’t see chances for csiny, its old and expensive. and more eps for syndication couldn’t hurt good wife. and its in situations like this where i feel like other considerations come into play, because everything is so close (read: good wife is the only cbs drama to represent the net in awards season). i don’t know if i just won a round of fan excuse bingo with all of that, but if i did, i’d like to trade in my card for a final season of good wife, please.

  • Faith

    @Ultima Thank you, I was wondering with their renew index being so low I thought they must have. I really like the show :)

  • Faith

    @Bill Gorman: What are your feelings on the chances CBS moves Hawaii Five-0 to another night this fall?

  • Leverage-Fan

    What are the odds that “The Mentalist” would get at least a proper finale? It would be a shame if CBS cancel this show AFTER the last episode was filmed!

  • PhilipM

    @Leverage-Fan: It’s possible that the writers would get some sort of advance notice around March to allow them to finish the show. CBS will know by then what shows are likely to continue and end. Then again, it’s just as possible that CBS cancels the show without a warning. Wrapping things up according to every fan’s wishes is not part of any network’s business model.

  • Leverage-Fan

    @PhilippM: To give a series a proper finale is of course in no interest of any network but for a producing studio. If “The Mentalist” won’t get any finale the sales for the series would drop. In the last years Warner made deals with several networks to give shows a final season (“CHUCK”, “Fringe”, “Gossip Girl”, …). Hopefully this time Warner makes no exception!

  • THE OLD MAN

    Elementary deserves a certain renewal

  • bluejays

    Re HFO moving – it’s up in the index and ahead of Elementary, CSI etc and so why should it automatically be shoved to a death slot? The last couple months its beaten both CSI and Elementary some weeks and at least equaled them others. All those three shows have hovered between 2.2’s and 2.6’s for the last couple of months so HFO’s performance is up with the rest of the pack, not lagging anymore.

    Furthermore unlike many other dramas (POI, Elementary, Blue Bloods, TGW) it has more than paid its way with a good syndication deal.

  • Drew

    Why won’t you mark HIMYM as renewed when it’s basically a done deal but hasn’t been officially announced, but you are willing to mark a series as canceled when it’s basically a done deal but before it’s officially announced? Seems like you’re having it both ways.

  • Petar Ivanov

    natalie martinez from csi ny is already cast in cbs Under the Dome wich mean cbs secretly ended csi. Other networks at least saying when one season is series ending. Not fair from CBS. AT least to the fans of the shows. Lats season they make the same with csi miami. Zero respect to veteran show and their fans. ZERO.

  • Holly

    @Petar,

    If Natalie Martinez were a series regular, you’d have a point, but she is only a recurring character and so not under contract. NY might get canceled, but her casting means nothing either way.

  • Mon

    @bluejays
    Re HFO moving – it’s up in the index and ahead of Elementary, CSI etc
    Only because the index didn’t include fall episodes and it looks like the Sunday H50 was included.

  • Petar Ivanov

    My CBS scheduling:
    MON: 8HIMYM 8:30Moms 92BG 9:30M&M 10H5O
    TUE: 8NCIS 9NCIS la 10NCIS spinoff
    WED: 8survivor 9CM 10CSI
    THU: 8TBBT 8:30TAHM 9POI 10Beverly hills cop
    FRI: 8TGW(single-cam com) 9New law drama 10Blue Bloods
    SAT: 8repeats 9repeats 10repeats
    SUN: 8TAR 9Elementary 10TM

    3 new dramas and 1 new multi-cam comedy. For midseason 2 new dramas 1 multi-cam and may be 2 single cam.
    As always CBS will premiere one new drama on tuesday at 10 and one new multicam on monday at 8:30 and one new drama on friday at 9. I put also one more drama for post POI slot. Beverly hills cop sounds the best option. NCIS spinoff will be on ncis day tuesday and one legal drama on friday. CBS already order 2 legal drama pilots.
    I expect this to be final season for TAHM so i think they will order one more multi-cam.(and if moms collapse) and will tri it after TBBT after TAHM ended.(if moms flop on that slot and will run TBBT rereuns after TAHM ended) And if cbs pick single cam comedies(they order more single pilots than multi) they will be on friday. Also one or two more dramas for midseason if any of 3 new dramas collapse.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @Bill Gorman who said:
    However, networks typically makes far fewer changes than many of our commenters predict/hope/fear.

    I must respectfully disagree with what you are saying. If you were say CBS makes……’far fewer changes than many of our commenters predict/hope/fear’ i will agree. But ‘Networks’ which include NBC, abc and fox… really? NBC this year premiere so many new shows and especially sitcoms. They change so many times their friday schedule. fox experiments with their tuesday comedy block, fridays etc. abc tuesday sitcoms. CBS is the only conservative and stable network(may be because are number one at the moment) all others are a litle or big mess.

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