CBS: 'Elementary' Now Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 23rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.65
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.73
Partners* canceled 0.79
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.87
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.19

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After two new episodes in 2013, Elementary's relative ratings have picked up to the point where it's now certain to be renewed. If its ratings plunge later in the season, the prediction will be adjusted, but expect to see it on CBS' schedule next season.

Note to the nitpicky commenters, although its just about as certain as it gets, How I Met Your Mother has not yet been officially renewed.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “CSI: NY is likely to be canceled only because it’ll have an early Finale ? It got a 2.1 with the Live+3 for its Friday episode !”

    And what were the live+3 ratings for the rest of the CBS shows?

  • Illinois

    @ Bill

    OK but Blue Bloods only got a 1.9 with the Live+3 and it’s only on its 3rd Season.
    If The Mentalist and TGW are Renewed, CBS will only cancel one next Season ? They only cancel one veteran per year, right ?

  • Adam

    @Bill Gorman why would they cancel The Mentalist when their ratings are constantly good for a Sunday show where as you look at Blue Bloods and 3 out of the last 4 episodes it has been beaten in the 18-49 demographic by CSI NY

  • SJ

    @Bill

    A Golden Boy flop doesn’t *save* any show

    I know it doesn’t. I wasn’t saying that Good Wife, Mentalist and NY will all get renewed. I’m just saying that, since Golden Boy is taking NY’s time slot, CBS will realize that NY very likely would have done better had it had a 22-episode order. If The Mentalist, in addition, doesn’t recover at 10pm when it’s not being pushed out of primetime by football, I’d say that CSI: NY is the clear winner in that scenario.

  • Ultima

    @Petar
    That is what i am talking about. Waaaaaaay too much anger even HATE Ultima.

    I really don’t know where you get that from. I even had the winky-smiley face! :D

    I’m usually quite amused on these forums, except when people are being really stuborn and obnoxious… usually Sunday threads involving football for some reason…

    Ok, support your show

    See, that’s the thing. I never support my shows. I really don’t care how they do in the ratings or if they get canceled. I can always watch something else.

    It makes it much easier to mock the crazies when I’m not emotionally invested either way. ;)

  • Nick

    @Illinois

    For 11 years, CBS airs “Sunny dramas” on Monday at 10 (CSI: Miami and now Hawaii Five-0). Considering Hawaii Five-0 is falling, NCIS: Los Angeles seems to be the prefect candidate to replace it.

    ???
    That’s like saying Once Upon a Time should’ve flopped because ABC had aired feel-good realities (EM:HE) in that slot for 9 years, and Person of Interest should’ve flopped because it didn’t have any of the forensic stuff that made its predecessor, CSI famous.
    It just doesn’t make any sense. A slot is not limited to one type of show.
    And by the way, “sunny dramas”? Seriously?

  • Ultima

    @Adam
    why would they cancel The Mentalist when their ratings are constantly good for a Sunday show where as you look at Blue Bloods and 3 out of the last 4 episodes it has been beaten in the 18-49 demographic by CSI NY

    Because all of the other shows with which The Mentalist is competing for a timeslot are produced by CBS – meaning CBS receives the non-ad revenue from them (primarily off-network domestic syndication).

    It’s entirely possible that even with better ratings, The Mentalist is less profitable for CBS than The Good Wife, CSI: NY and Blue Bloods.

  • DJ

    Couple questions
    1) Do ratings for the Good Wife and Mentalist really even matter at this point? Or is it all going to come down to mostly syndication and financial factors that we really don’t have much information about? I ask because both the Good Wife and Mentalists ratings have picked up since the new year, particuarly the Mentalist and wonder if that might have any bearing on anything or if this really is all about other factors.
    2) What is the track record for shows like Golden Boy? In recent years, how many introduced in mid season dramas stay on for a second season on CBS? Memory tells me it’s not that great, but I’m wondering if someone can be more specific or precise with recent examples than me.
    3) If Golden Boy isn’t renewed, are the odds in favor of CBS cancelling 1 of CSI NY Good Wife or Mentalist or 2 of them? I’ve been reading at least one, but I’m not sure if that means there’s a better chance of 2 cancelling than one even if Golden Boy isn’t picked up.
    Thanks

  • Charles

    @Bill Gorman
    My prediction is that Vegas will see a ratings uptick with parenthood and private practice out of the way. Would that be enough to save the show?

  • Ultima

    @DJ
    Do ratings for the Good Wife and Mentalist really even matter at this point?

    Of course; The Mentalist’s ratings (and the licensing costs) are all that matter for CBS. Syndication value is a huge factor, but if The Menatlist’s ratings completely collapse, it makes it more likely that it will be less valuable than something like CSI:NY.

    What is the track record for shows like Golden Boy?

    On CBS? Horrid. The last midseason drama on CBS to be renewed was The Unit in 2006.

    If Golden Boy isn’t renewed, are the odds in favor of CBS cancelling 1 of CSI NY Good Wife or Mentalist or 2 of them? I’ve been reading at least one, but I’m not sure if that means there’s a better chance of 2 cancelling than one even if Golden Boy isn’t picked up.

    CBS needs to cancel one veteran drama (i.e. CSI:NY, TGW, Mentalist) to make room on the schedule next fall for Elementary as it’s assumed they’ll premiere three new dramas as they have for quite some time now.

    However, even if they don’t renew Golden Boy or Vegas, they may decide to cut their drama hours by one for another hour of sitcoms (unlikely) or reality (possible – Undercover Boss or The Job). In that case they would have to cut a second veteran drama.

  • Holly

    @DJ,

    1) Do ratings for the Good Wife and Mentalist really even matter at this point? Or is it all going to come down to mostly syndication and financial factors that we really don’t have much information about?

    A dramatic change either way will matter. If they get about the same as the fall, it’s all up to other factors.

    2) Not good. I can’t remember the last mid-seasons scripted show on CBS that survived…but that doesn’t mean it won’t do well.

    3) If Golden Boy is canceled, CBS only needs to cancel one in order to premiere three new dramas in the fall. They could cancel 2 and air Undercover Boss in the fall.

  • Holly

    @Petar,

    How about this. If PoI’s season average next year is better than NCIS’s, I’ll donate $15 to my local food bank. If it isn’t, you donate $15 (or Euros, or whatever) to your local food bank.

  • Illinois

    @ Petar

    There is NO chances PoI will beat NCIS next season !
    If NCIS has a new spin-off its ratings will rise. Since NCIS: Los Angeles premiere, in 2009, the original Show won 4 million viewers and 1.5 in the demo.
    NCIS is not the only example ! CSI won 2 million viewers each time it had a new spin-off (it had 22 million viewers in 2002 and 26.5 million in 2004).
    It will perhaps not happen next season but I hope because NCIS is the BEST SHOW EVER !
    So if PoI win next season I’ll donate $50 to my local food bank. Do you really think Person of Interest will beat NCIS next season ?

    @ Nick

    Why do you dislike “Sunny Dramas” ? It’s a funny way to see Procedurals which take place in a sunny places ! Do you prefer “Sea, Sex and Blood Dramas” or “Hot Dramas” ?

  • Holly

    @Illinois,

    I’m guessing “Sunny Dramas” means dramas with a light comedic, or “sunny”, feel to them as opposed to a heavy, intense drama.

  • Illinois

    @ Holly
    I meant it’s Drama which takes place in a sunny place (Hawaii, Miami…). Im French so I didn’t know it has this sense.
    Sorry if my English is not good and for the mistakes I made !

  • Who’s Ultima

    Does this “Ultima” person work for you, or do they think they know everything and won’t stop commenting?

  • Young

    Yeah……………. goodbye CSI:NY and either Good Wife or Mentalist (if Golden Boy does well).

    Blue Bloods is done on CBS after season 4 or 5.

  • Petar Ivanov

    @Ultima
    My bad. I am sorry. I did not mean to offend you. I don’t get it from first time. But sometimes is really hard at least for people not from US to get it when you are sarcastic and when serious. By the way if i may to give you advice be ‘emotionally invested’ in shows that you like. Its like life and love sometimes win sometimes lose and hurt but that is life you know. The bad hand is that all show like in real life aged and start decline. And than is really hard when moment has come.

    @Illinois
    May be you are right. Will see. I thing one more ncis will hurt mothership more than help. Think people are alredy tired from even nsic la spinoff. Hey i was BIG BIG NCIS fan for 5-6 seasons. But get tired than. I want every crime drama including POI to has NCIS LONG LONG LIFE! Its unbelievable success.

    @Holly
    Ok. We have a deal. But i will give 15 LEVS – this is out currency(this is 10$ i think so that is your part). I told you that you are good person. Only good man will be thought to offer that idea. I have good instinct for people.Great idea. Its win win in both ways. SMart and good.

  • Jake

    If CBS is looking for dramas to end here’s three good ideas: CSI:NY, it’s run it’s course; Hawaii 5-0, it’s ratings are the worse for a CBS drama this season. End the agony. And then there’s The Good Wife. Ratings for the Good Wife have not been quite as bad as Hawaii 5-0 but bad enough.
    If the big shot executives at CBS has any ounce of brain in their heads those are the 3 dramas to cancel.

  • Nick

    @Illinois

    I don’t dislike them at all. I just think it’s ludicrous to say that a show might do better in a certain slot because it has a sunny locale!

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